This was posted 12 years 11 months 21 days ago, and might be an out-dated deal.

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Cancer Council Sunscreen - 500ml - $9.97 (Limit of 5) - $11 Shipping (RRP 22.95)

68

I'm sure you can find other things to make use of the $11 shipping cap
(though worth checking on coles/woolworths as some things are more expensive here)

here is a link to the cancer council website
http://www.cancervic.org.au/store/pg511 - listed as 22.95

chemist warehouse
http://www.chemistwarehouse.com.au/product.asp?id=55122&pnam…
though if you buy a litre…
http://www.chemistwarehouse.com.au/product.asp?id=61274&pnam…

we find it annoying to have to carry the litre pump around - but that's just us

ARRRGH!

5 x 9.97 = 49.85
I was already buying stuff on grocery run but for everyone's sake i will include the $11
+11 = $60.85

from chemist warehouse - (pickup)
18.69*5 = 93.45

93.45 - 60.85 = 32.6

32.6/93.45 x 100 = 34.88%

thats what i saved !! (assuming you use chemist warehouse price rather than the cancer council price of 22.95)

I mentioned in the original post
- its a better deal if you were buying other stuff as well (from grocery run)
- if you are happy to buy by the litre then not as good a deal ( i inclued the 500ml and 1L prices from chemist warehouse)

Related Stores

GroceryRun
GroceryRun

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  • If you go to Sam's warehouse, they sell this at about similar price.

    • hard to get to for me in melbourne - but fair pt

      • +2

        Airport West, Roxburgh Park, Moorabbin, Tarneit, Rowville, Carrum Downs, Fountain Gate, Bacchus Marsh….

  • Good for a cricket team etc…buy 5x500ml (2.5L) + shipping = $60.85

  • I fully support Cancer Council products, but this isnt a bargain… the shipping kills it. You can buy it locally for a cheaper price.

    http://www.chemistwarehouse.com.au/product.asp?id=55122&pnam…

    • -8

      mate - you totally missed the point (did you read anything that i wrote other than the title??)

    • -2
      1. who buys singles from grocery run?
      2. if you looked in the description you would see i posted the link to chemist warehouse
      • +2

        But the question remains - why would people pay for shipping of a product that can be picked up literally ANYWHERE that there is a shop?

        Would you like us to post photos of the prices of sunscreen at normal stores like Coles, Woolworths, etc? Sorry, but I cannot currently consider this is a bargain.

        • +4

          Not this brand at this price

    • Agree with everything that UFO said. This really isn't a bargain at all considering once postage is factored in, it's this price just about everywhere.

  • +2

    thats a ripoff for sunscreen. who cares about their rrp.
    coles had a few sunscreen bottles half price this week, worth a look locally first.

    • -2

      Not this brand … Why not compare apples…

      • +1

        Because apples come in varieties not brands….
        Sunscreen comes in brands, & this brand is most likely made in the same factory as Coles, Woolies, Big W, Banana Boat, etc like a hell of a lot of products are

      • Sorry to say, but really what's the difference between this & any other brand? All are spf30+ (the law pretty much requires this now), so it's no more effective against sun rays???
        E.g. $3.37 for 100ml of Coles brand here: https://www.colesonline.com.au/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/Sea…

        • thats 33 bucks a litre - more expensive

          re your qn about what dif does it make which brand..
          ask anyone with eczema / skin allergies if different brands matter or not…
          i agree … this is not a bargain for everyone

          (at least you have the good sense not to neg the deal - i hear your point - to a person who does not care which brand they buy - this is not a bargain - in the same way 30% off a clothing brand that I did not wear would be of no use to me - but to you - it might be helpful)

        • +1

          Or buy the 1L bottle for $13.43 as advertised in the Coles Summer Magazine here: http://www.coles.com.au/Products/Summer-2012-Magazine.aspx
          And before anyone complains about having to "lug around" a 1L bottle (gee it must be so hard for all of the people who drive….you drive to the beach…you park the car…you get out…2 steps, you're on the beach. Here's my trip to the beach: half hour bus, hour train, half hour bus or ferry, then walk; & that's not to the beach of my choice…anyway) There's these things called refillable/reusable bottles! You get a bottle in whatever size you like carrying with you, & you fill it up from the big bottle!! Takes 5 seconds & you've saved a heck of a lot of money!!

  • -1

    Sunscreen is not something that you need to buy on mail order.

    Surely people here aren't so lazy that they cannot pickup a bottle at any normal shop?

    • +1

      But the problem remains, how can you make it to the store if you have no sunscreen!? surely you would catch cancer and die before you even got to the car!!! OMG!!!!!!!!

      p.s. this is not a bargain

      • +1

        Nah, it's not a problem… because it comforms with Darwin's theory. Skin Cancer weeds out those humans with poor planning skills. :-D

      • +3

        That or you start sparkling and reveal your true identity…duh.duh.duhh…

  • +1

    As my last sunscreen ran out of date, I purchased some from Big W as they had 25% off, which still worked out cheaper than this if purchasing one or two. Anyway, if I purchased more than one (probably like a few people round here) that I'd be back to square one again (i.e. They'll all expire before I use them all!)

  • Either the shipping kills it, or you have to buy a whole heap of other stuff to make the shipping worth it.

    Either way, this on its own is not a bargain.

    • -2

      I challenge you to find this brand at a better price…And include the shipping in your calculation

      • +2

        Chillax dude

  • +7

    Wow you really aren't willing to accept defeat are you.

    It's $20.97 and you can set a bottle at Chemist Warehouse for $18.69.

    If I was to take this challenge a little further, lets base it on one litre. $30.94 from here and $25.96 from Chemist Warehouse.

    Unless you have a family of 10 and therefore go through a proverbial shitload of sunscreen, this is not a bargain.

    • Chemist warehouse 18.69 + 6.95 shipping = 25.64
      this deal 9.97 + 7.95 shipping (for one bottle to SA)= 17.92

      or
      Chemist warehouse one litre 32.64 shipped
      this deal, one litre 30.94 shipped

      this is not a bargain.

      it's cheaper….. what makes it not a bargain?

      • Chemist Warehouse - approx. 150 retail stores
        COTD - 0 retails stores

        If you really want it cheaper, get Chemist Warehouse to price match…

        • clearly you place no value on your time, fuel, etc…..

      • +1

        There is no option for pickup… If you live near any major city, you can make it to chemist warehouse within 5 minutes.

        Besides, grocery run is catch of the day. Knowing their delivery times, you wouldn't get the sunscreen until winter anyway.

        • -2

          If you live near any major city,

          perhaps you do…. but not everyone does

          only two CW in the whole of the ACT and NT
          only 8 in the whole of SA
          9 in WA

          not everyone is within 5 minutes…….

      • thanks for the try
        personally i cant be bothered at this stage

        • Hallelujah.

        • -4

          Ashlea - you REALLY dont get it
          - the reason I am giving up is not because anyone has said anything to change my mind - to me this is a bargain - i wanted this brand at this size and this is by far the cheapest price out there (though someone did say sam's usually sell it at this price - though i have never seen it and there is no sams near me)

          for many people on ozbargain - unless it is a bargain for you then it is not a bargain

          in their world - a Muslim would neg a great deal on pork b/c he cant eat it / a Catholic would neg a condom deal because he cant use it / a Jew would neg a Saturday sale b/c he cant go to it… and I would neg a Ralph Lauren deal b/c i think its cheap european designed / SE asian made crap

          but in the real world - no everyone is muslim/catholic/jewish/ thinks RL is crap…
          not every bargain is for everyone

          my point is
          - found somewhere cheaper - great! - mention it
          - have a better alternative - great! - discuss it
          - have anything else to say - go forth
          just be decent about it
          unfortunately - all the negativity (i am not talking about constructive criticism) makes this an unfriendly place to post "small" / "niche" bargains - so yes - i cant be bothered arguing with people who want to argue

  • are you a Doctor?

    • +4

      maybe he's a Doctorb? THE B IS FOR BARGAIN!

  • Oh, an FYI for anyone who might have been going to buy this offer, it finishes at Midday (AEDST) TOMORROW(!!) Tuesday the 3rd of January. Because apparently dr_rusko doesn't believe he(?) needs to clearly state which Midday the offer finishes on…..

    • -1

      when i posted it was going to end today at midday - they seem to have extended

  • -1

    rather than take this personally, I'm just going to reiterate what I said from the outset

    AS per the original post - if you are buying 5 (which i did), and you buying other stuff anyway to make full use of the shipping cap (which i did) and you want this brand (I do) and this size (i dont like lugging the 1L tubes along with the large family)

    then this is a good deal

    if there were similar minded people out there - then they miss out as the deal has been negged (for reasons that I dont agree with but cant be bothered arguing with)

    • 5? You must be lathering sunscreen on like crazy. they do go off you know. no point in buying so many if you can't use it all

      • 5? You must be lathering sunscreen on like crazy.

        presumably you don't work outside……

    • AS per the original post - if you are buying 5

      even if you are buying one…. it's still cheaper to have it delivered than to get out of the house and drive to the chemist warehouse, (assuming you live within 5 mins of the store..)

      17.92 delivered vs 18.69 pickup.

      once again, a reasonable deal removed by people negging based on their own personal circumstances…. "I live 5 mins away from a chemist warehouse…. therefore everyone else must do too"

      it's unfortunate for those who don't live in urban areas…. but hey, who cares about them… it's the mob that rules here….

  • A "good deal" is not a bargain for the purpose of sites like Ozbargain. Needs to be much much cheaper to deserve "bargain" classification.

    • hmmm…. how cheap?

      the next best price is $25.64…. so this is a saving of 7.72

      I can't be arsed working out the percentage, but it seems a reasonable amount.

      what would you consider a bargain price to be for this item?

    • -3

      ARRRGH!

      5 x 9.97 = 49.85
      I was already buying stuff on grocery run but for your sake i will include the $11
      +11 = $60.85

      from chemist warehouse - (pickup)
      18.69*5 = 93.45

      93.45 - 60.85 = 32.6

      32.6/93.45 x 100 = 34.88%

      thats what i saved !! (assuming you use chemist warehouse price rather than the cancer council price of 22.95)

      I mentioned in the original post
      - its a better deal if you were buying other stuff as well (from grocery run)
      - if you are happy to buy by the litre then not as good a deal ( i inclued the 500ml and 1L prices from chemist warehouse)

      please tell me what the basis of your neg is????

  • +4

    OP sounds so pressed over this, let it go.

    P.S it's not a bargain, a bargain is where OzBargainers takes down the whole site.

    • -3

      i cant help but chuckle - that defn is truly bollocks

      this was not a bargain for everyone - just thought it might help someone
      (at least there were 5 other people who might have found it useful…)

  • +3

    Here's a different variety of apple to compare it to - 1 LITRE of sunscreen for $9.97 (or $13.97 delivered) at good old Big W:
    http://www.bigw.com.au/beauty-health/skincare/bpnBIGW_000000…

    You could have purchased 3 of these instead (and get an extra 500mL) and saved more cash like a true OzBargainer would :)

    • saved more cash like a true OzBargainer would

      presumably that's why we all drive 'great wall' vehicles and watch 'awa' tv's…..

      • +2

        Don't be so shallow about branding - there are lots of equivalents in todays society which are exactly the same products inside. For example, cheaper TV's still can use Samsung/LG componentry. Some can even help out the local community - for example, a local flour mill got the disabled people to transfer flour from smaller bags which was destined for Aldi into White Wings as another agent was nearly out of White Wings. It's a win-win situation, as the disabled people get some work experience, whilst the wholesaler/retailer gets the goods.

        I've seen someone on OzBargain say that they own a Datsun Sunny - honestly does it really matter? Besides, it's probably a rip-snorter of a car! In other words, don't judge a book by its cover :)

        • +1

          I agree with all of your post, (I drive a ssangyong!!!)

          However… not every single product is the same…. big w sunscreen may contain an ingredient that is an allergen for some… who knows?…. In which case it doesn't really matter how cheap it is……

          It's about information and choice. The negs on this post have restricted both, without providing any cheaper alternatives. They have discussed different products…. which is all well and good (although adding a neg to it means it won't be seen anyway).

          I don't have a great deal of knowledge about sunscreen…. I don't know the differences between one or another…. I would imagine most of the other posters don't know either…. I therefore would not feel able to comment on the value or not of this particular brand as opposed to any other. However, based on the research by the OP, this post would seem to list the best price for this brand of sunscreen. If this is the only brand I want to/can use, then this is a useful post and indeed a bargain…
          What Coles 'home brew' sunscreen costs is interesting…. but not really relevant….

        • +2

          he's right…To people negging provide suitable alternative which is exactly the same as the cancer council one(if not the same product) and then we'll talk. I could post a bargain for US banana boat sunscreen which is actually much cheaper(friend from Canada shifted here and brought a full shipping container full of US/Canadian products) than any sunscreen found here let alone branded ones but my bro gets rashes from it but the cheapass coles one works perfectly fine.

  • +3

    Build a bridge folks…. everyone gets the right to vote whichever way they choose.
    Telling people they "lack good sense" if voting neg on this deal isnt going to help your cause btw.

    You also need to consider that most people will likely only find it a Real OzBargain when they can buy online and be delivered to their door for considerably cheaper than can be bought locally…. and I think that's what you are missing here. For the 1 or 2 that fit into your special circumstances described above, there will be 10 that dont.

    I voted neg not because I lack good sense, but because I dont consider it a bargain when I can pick it up locally for cheaper. Whether you agree with that logic isnt my problem, and you can go ahead and rant for another 10-15 posts… but the simple fact is its not a bargain to me. For others who desperately need a crapload of sunscreen delivered, maybe it is. But to me it isnt.

    My 2c anyway.

  • I voted neg not because I lack good sense, but because I dont consider it a bargain when I can pick it up locally for cheaper.

    But you can't…..

    17.92 delivered vs 18.69 pickup from CW.

    • -3

      Unfortunately he and many others don't understand what it means to be a part of the oZbargain community…
      I think we have got to this pt a few times before Andy..

      • +1

        Unfortunately he and many others don't understand what it means to be a part of the oZbargain community…

        This kind of holier-than-thou attitude is not helping.

        You posted a deal, and it got negged. It happens. No need to take it personally.

        • +1

          You make it sound like it's a popularity contest …
          Negged or not nagged… I don't need ozbargain to feel good about myself..

          The point Andy and I are making… And have made many times in the past is that to vote on a bargain is a responsibility as well as a rite… And one that has consequences that affect all of us.

          Case in pt … Let's pretend I like rolex watches (I don't own one for the record).. And so does person "b"…
          I post a deal for 50% off rolexes… The mob decide that $5000 is still much for a watch- you can buy longines for less than half the price so they neg the crap out of it b/c they don't think it's good value… person b never gets to see the deal and misses the deal of HIS life… The system has failed in that case…
          My concept of a bargain … And my "vision" of ozbargain …. Is a deal where someone cam save money… Not the whole world … Someone.

          I encourage constructive criticism of my or any post … But I emplore the community to do it in a way that helps the community
          Nothing to do with "holier that thou" just trying to see the big picture

        • I wonder what Scotty or any of the mods would say… They would tell me to let it go… But lets pretend this wasnt "personal" — I wonder what their view on the bigger picture is..

        • Unfortunately, as has been said before on many occasions… since the lack of moderating neg votes, and the unwillingness/disinterest in removing inappropriate negs by the community, the neg vote has become incredibly unhelpful.

          These days, the majority of negs seem to be "spam!", "put price in title", "dupe", "not a bargain", "sockpuppet", "I agree", etc etc …. of no use whatsoever to anyone. It would be interesting to survey the amount of appropriate versus inappropriate negs over the course of a week or so…. I suspect there will be few appropriate.

          Also been said before on many occasions…..My personal view is that Scotty should bite the bullet, ignore the howls of the few, and remove the neg option all together…. the no vote becomes the neg…. post with no votes are bad deals…. posts with lots of positives are good deals.
          We could then also do away with this ridiculous system of negging comments, as the reason for that system being developed will have been removed.

          However, methinks we are voices in the wilderness :)

          my 2c (yes… I know nobody asked for it :)….)

        • +1

          My concept of a bargain … And my "vision" of ozbargain …. Is a deal where someone cam save money… Not the whole world … Someone.

          If we posted every deal where someone could save any amount of money, OzBargain would be completely useless — there would be thousands of posts per day, with an extremely low signal-to-noise ratio. The whole point of OzBargain is to pick out the few particularly good deals (i.e. bargains). No one's saying that it has to be a good bargain for everyone, but there has to be a line somewhere.

          For example, let's take another look at this particular deal.

          1. You have to be looking for this particular brand — if not, there are plenty of much cheaper sunscreens elsewhere. That narrows the number of people who are interested in this deal by a lot already. On its own, this wouldn't be a deal-breaker, since as you've stated, there are specific reasons why some people would prefer this brand.

          2. You have to be looking for this particular size. There are larger sizes available, at similar prices, but you personally don't like carrying them around.

          3. Buying this alone is not a good deal, because the shipping makes the total cost similar to other stores. So this isn't a good deal unless you're already planning on buying a lot of other items from this particular store — and it's not exactly a store where many people are already going to be shopping on a regular basis.

          So, this deal is only good under a very, very specific set of circumstances, and is targeting a very, very specific audience — you have to be (1) looking for this particular brand, (2) in this particular size, and (3) be already planning to buy other items from this store. Any one of these criteria is going to narrow your audience by quite a lot — a person who fits all three criteria is going to be extremely rare. We're talking about a small subset, of a small subset, of a small subset of people.

          Again, I want to stress that I'm not saying a deal has to be applicable to everyone, or even to many people at all; but for OzBargain to function, there does need to be a line somewhere, and in my opinion, and presumably that of the others who negged this deal, this one falls well short of that line. For the vast, vast majority of people, this is not going to be the cheapest option.

          As a side note, let's play devil's advocate for a moment, and assume that a person is looking for this particular brand and size, and is already buying a lot of groceries today at GroceryRun.com — they're already likely to see this deal anyway, since it's one of the top featured deals on the web site.

          The point Andy and I are making… And have made many times in the past is that to vote on a bargain is a responsibility as well as a rite… And one that has consequences that affect all of us.

          We are all aware of this responsibility, and to assume we are not is a little presumptuous. We are not negging this deal flippantly, or simply because it doesn't apply to us personally — we are negging it because we honestly believe it does not meet the standards of OzBargain.

          Anyway, this conversation is becoming less about this particular deal, and more about what type of site OzBargain should be, so perhaps this is a discussion better suited for the forums.

        • so perhaps this is a discussion better suited for the forums.

          agreed… although it has been done many times before…

          So, this deal is only good under a very, very specific set of circumstances, and is targeting a very, very specific audience

          like this? http://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/60910
          or this http://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/60908
          perhaps this? http://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/60878

          etc etc….
          I have no interest in any of those deals…. they are quite niche and specific…. I therefore do not fell the need to comment on them….. I could neg and say knives/suitcases can be bought cheaper elsewhere… but that would not be relevant to the deals in question. I therefore do not comment, as it doesn't really concern me….I'm happy for people wanting Wusthof knives that they might be getting them at a good price.

          Even though these are deals that are uninteresting to me, I note that it hasn't ruined my experience of ozbargain…. my computer hasn't slowed under the weight of these irrelevant postings, the pages load ok…. I just don't click on them.

          and in my opinion, and presumably that of the others who negged this deal, this one falls well short of that line.

          ahh… not popular…. so the mob removes it from view… despite the fact it appears to be the cheapest option for this brand, and no cheaper alternative is offered. Three or four negs and it's gone, meaning that the vast majority of the community will never see it, to be able to make their own decisions…. Don't forget, the bulk of them community is 'guest' viewers, who may or may not like the deal…. They will now never know. There has to be something wrong when a small handful of people can decide they don't like a particular deal and get it removed.

          Nothing would make me happier to see
          "neg, it's cheaper at blah de blah" (we have seen that, so far this is the cheapest option, particularly for those not living 5 mins from a CW)
          "neg, the big w one has the exact same ingredients and is cheaper"
          "neg, this company is a scam company"
          etc
          This would be useful information.

          much better than… "me and two others don't think it's a good deal….. we don't know why…. we can't improve on the deal… nor offer any information about it….to be honest, it really doesn't concern us at all, we're not likely to buy any….. just don't think it's good… so we're going to make sure nobody else sees it, and bar the poster from posting for 5 days…. cos we know best for all of you… and we particularly enjoy wielding the power of the little red neg"

          It's wrong…….. and by no means restricted to this particular deal, although this deal highlights the problem

        • I think you've missed the point of my post. Once again, I'm not saying the deal has to apply to everyone. I'm not even saying it has to apply to many people at all. But there surely needs to be a line somewhere.

          Let's start with the two extremes. I think we can both agree that a deal that applies to absolutely everyone is acceptable, yes? Now let's look at the other extreme — a deal that applies to exactly one person only. Should this deal be posted?

          If the answer is no, then clearly there is a line somewhere between the two extremes, and we simply disagree on where exactly that line sits. If the answer is yes, then we fundamentally disagree on the purpose of OzBargain.

  • the pos and negs are very good indicators of what is and isn't a bargain. People aren't stupid, they know a deal when they smell one and its reflected in the amount of + and - that a post gets. This deal, sorry rusko, just isn't great. When I post a deal, that's it, I let the people decide, i usually don't even bother to comment on my own post.

    That's what you need to do, don't take it too personally, and let the people decide

  • @gilbarc.. (started a new thread… was getting confusing)

    Now let's look at the other extreme — a deal that applies to exactly one person only. Should this deal be posted?

    My thoughts would be…. why not?

    If the deal was for one item only, then of course, the deal should not be posted, that's a different issue.

    However in all other circumstances, who am I to judge how many people a deal will apply to? It costs me nothing for a deal to be posted, irrespective of it's application. If I see a deal saying "great gadget, really cheap will apply to unicycle riders only", I will not click on the deal.
    If I do click on the deal and find it's not for me…. so be it…. that's 5 seconds I won't get back, but it's not the end of the world…. Most deals I click on are not for me anyhow….. I certainly wouldn't spend two minutes negging the deal…. Particularly if I thought it could help a unicycle rider or two….

    Are you concerned that limited appeal deals will somehow impact negatively on your life or the site in some way?

    • +1

      There's a difference, though, between limited appeal, and ridiculously limited appeal. And not just limited appeal, but limited circumstances in which the deal would actually constitute a bargain. A great deal for unicycle riders: perfectly appropriate for OzBargain. A small discount on a unicycle tyre, but only for one specific size and model of unicycle, which is only cheaper if you're already spending a lot of money at Unicycles-R-Us.com today anyway, and which is advertised prominently on the main page of Unicycles-R-Us.com, meaning anyone who the deal applies to is going to find out about it anyway: not appropriate for OzBargain.

      Are you concerned that limited appeal deals will somehow impact negatively on your life or the site in some way?

      Yes. At present, deals which don't apply to me are fine, because they're helping plenty of other people, and there are enough deals that do apply to me that spending a few seconds skimming over all the deals to find something good is quick and painless.

      If you posted every deal which saved someone some small amount of money, we would be posting every single sale for every single item that exists. The signal-to-noise ratio would drop by several orders of magnitude, and suddenly the quick and painless process of skimming through the deals to find the few good ones turns into trying to find a needle in a haystack.

      • Sticking to this particular posting….

        And not just limited appeal, but limited circumstances in which the deal would actually constitute a bargain.

        ok…. guide me through this….
        Like for like, this deal beats the nearest noted competitor 17.92 vs 25.64
        Even for those within spitting distance of that competitor and able to pick up, this still beats it 17.92 vs 18.69

        The one circumstance where this deal is beaten is on a 1 litre bottle, (but only if you are near enough to pick up….. and technically the 1 litre pack is a different product, but let's not get too pedantic). So in one fairly limited circumstance it is possible to buy cheaper.

        So… what's limited about it?
        Product?….. I reckon we all probably use sunscreen
        Brand? possibly… although it seems to be popular, well known/respected, charitable donation as part of cost, etc etc. People may wish to use this brand for whatever reason. I don't profess to know how many might prefer this brand over others….
        Price?… seems to be the best, aside from one limited circumstance… no one has provided a cheaper alternative

        where do you see the limitations in this deal?

        Overall, I'm not convinced restricting the flow of bargains is a good thing, irrespective of whether they apply to me….. I feel that any postings should be encouraged, otherwise all we will see will be rep postings….. It takes some courage these days to post deals…. there is a significant risk of being trolled, flamed, ridiculed, etc etc. Perhaps personally reflect on why in nearly 3 years of membership you have yet to post a deal?

        The signal-to-noise ratio would drop by several orders of magnitude, and suddenly the quick and painless process of skimming through the deals to find the few good ones turns into trying to find a needle in a haystack.

        Why do you suspect that will be the case? There are no restrictions currently on limited appeal deals…. why do you assume there is going to be an increase?

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