Nothing to me indicates we are…….
Has the Government lied to us to make it sound worse than what it really is?
Nup. Still lifting, but at normal times now and not too too late for me to want to tell him off.
I want to tell him that he will never grow if he lifts everyday like he does. š¤£
I used to do this everyday for a few months - didnt see any growth so gave up…
Has the Government lied to us to make it sound worse than what it really is?
Why would they do this?
The economy is very uneven.
I was talking with a person who works for a tour bus company and a university academic.
The tour business is barely hanging on. The uni's are dropping contract lecturers (which is half the lecturers) en masse when their 2020 contract finishes.
Another chat with a financial advisor and he said many of his clients are doing fantastically. They had a slow month or two in April, then JobKeeper paid their staff for months. Very nice. They are buying a new Hilux.
So it is very dependent on where you are looking.
Thanks for that, I guess my observations the last 2 weeks or so, has made me question the whole "Recession" tag.
JobKeeper paid their staff for months. Very nice. They are buying a new Hilux.
Lots of dodgy practices. I know someone who transferred their clients to other companies they owned / started to claim JK. They must be in building industry which got $25k home maker grants.
From https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/recessā¦
The most common definition of recession used in the media is a ātechnical recessionā in which there have been two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP. This definition often appears in textbooks and is widely used by journalists. On this definition, Australia had not recorded a recession for 29 years since the recession of the early 1990s.
So, while you are observing positive activity in housing pricing, motor vehicle purchasing, consumer spending, which equates to consumer confidence. The bigger picture includes exports and imports and industry response to these.
Our exports are currently taking a hit, particularly in the Chinese market. This will have a ripple effect on our whole economy, depending upon how quickly exporters can find new markets for their goods, in agriculture, sea food, wines, coal and iron ore.
We are currently being propped up by Jobkeeper, Jobseeker and early withdrawals from Superannuation, maintaining consumer spending. This could change dramatically in the coming months.
Our exports are taking a hit at the moment because of Morrisons bullish attitude towards the chinese.
It will be interesting to see how our government react now to the wine tariff.
But i understand what your saying, and thanks for your input. Im educated but not in that aspect of politics.
200% export tariff on iron ore would be bullish.. everything else is just words
Threat to iron ore exports to China: (https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/wā¦)
China has threatened to cut off Australiaās $63 billion iron ore export pipeline to Beijing following the Morrison Governmentās calls for an international inquiry into the origins of COVID-19.
The Global Times newspaper, a mouthpiece for the communist government, suggested China did not need Australian exports and could easily turn to Brazil for iron ore and other commodities.
@DashCam AKA Rolts: Iron Ore? The only other big producer is Brazil and they have tailing dam problems + COVID19 + higher cost of shipping.
Iron Ore is one thing that China won't hit. Wine they can hit because there is other producers.
@DashCam AKA Rolts: China might have Africa up and going in 5 years… they will walk away from Australian production regardless. May as well make them pay while they have no other choice and remain unfriendly. It would also be the easiest thing in the world for the USA to shut down China's access to the resources of both Africa and (especially) Brazil.
The Aust govt only sees royalties based on acquisition cost.. around $10 per tonne in BHP's case. Bad news for BHP.. but who gives a stuff about mutinationals?
In short… it doesn't matter all that much to Australia while it matters a great deal to China.
China might have Africa up and going in 5 yearsā¦
They been feeding the corrupt African governments. Just wait until they get fed up with the corruption. If homo sapiens originated out of Africa 65,000 years ago then what is going on in Africa that is holding it back.
All countries have corruption except some countries are just more brazen. If you think the sports rorts and other rorts are bad Africa and South America is multiples worse.
@netjock: It'll probably be the same playbook the US used with the USSR.. let them spend a bunch of money in a 3rd world country, then fund a coup or bully that country into changing sides, leaving the development cost stranded and useless.
The only difference is they haven't been doing that with China… yet.
Belt and road as planned will account for 40% of global GDP - it's incredibly huge.. if they don't get the resources it will fall over, and so will the future growth of China.
Belt and road as planned will account for 40% of global GDP
30% of Global GDP and China is 50% of the 65 countries paper here
Basically China is going to suck in the resources of all countries involved and leave them high and dry. Just like every empire before it.
@gringo: I read China knows this and is preparing. No way can they beat the US Navy in size and quality.
So they start to build a network of artificial islands around them. Officially there is hue and cry by the SE Asian countries but privately both people and politicians are being bought off. Exception surprisingly is Vietnam
Wine and Barley exports to China have very little impact on GDP. Barley can be redirected at a lower price, Wine is a little harder, but could also be somewhat shifted to other markets.
So what be the eye opener? The iron ore??
@iNeed2Pee: Because we aren't out to have a trade war with China. We just want them to shape up politically and on a human rights basis.
@serpserpserp: Do we have the right to decide on human rights issue, We are not the US Deputy Sheriff.
Besides we suck up to Saudi Arabia when when they are involved in atrocious murders and treatment of their women who are jailed indefinitely for fighting for human rights.
Petroleum comes from many sources. Besides we have lots of gas.
This "We just want them to shape up …." smacks of arrogance (if "we" means our politicians). Particularly by 2035 at the latest China is estimated by Western economists to surpass the USA. They are unlikely to become democratic because from history China has never being democratic. Taiwan is now democratic but when WW2 ended and the KMT which fled to Taiwan there were wholescale massacres of all opposition. What changed it was when Chiang Kai Shek died and his son educated in Russia with a Russian wife took over and embraced democracy
Barley exports to China: (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-25/china-and-australia-tā¦)
$1.5 billion-a-year
Wine exports to China:(https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-03/australian-wine-exporā¦)
Wine exports to China totalled $1.26 billion in 2019
@DashCam AKA Rolts: Australian GDP is 1.4 trillion at 2019 read. So small biscuits.
And as I said, product can be redirected and in the case of barely, farmers can change crop in 2021. Plus they have some ability to store (see how that plays out though). So the dollars won't just disappear.
@serpserpserp: In the larger view, these figures are a small percentage of GDP, but practically,they can have a dramatic effect on individuals, and hence their communities.
farmers can change crop in 2021. Plus they have some ability to store
No that simple, what do you do when you have to defer an entire year's/season's income? Where do you store a year's harvest of barley. Barley also has limited markets. Most of the exported barley was going straight to beer brewing in China. Not many other markets of that size for beer brewing.
In the larger view, these figures are a small percentage of GDP, but practically,they can have a dramatic effect on individuals, and hence their communities.
Well of course they can have a dramatic effect on some farmer that somehow grows 100% Barley, only exports to China, didn't stop sowing Barley when tensions started rising (many switched to wheat, some just saved their seed.) etc. etc. I say all of this because their would be very few farmers in this situation. Most are diversified and if they aren't like my example they might not be the smartest on the block or just stuck their head in the sand.
Most of the exported barley was going straight to beer brewing in China.
I think you'll find it is "Asia" and not China specifically. Barley going to beer brewing just yields a better margin and they take a hit on profit but it doesn't become an unviable business if you sell the same barley into other countries (or domestically) as feedlot stock. It isn't like China is the only buyer of our stuff (from memory it is about 50% but it is probably most of the malting barley given the margin you can make). If you know a bit about Barley farmers, you'll know that the situation I outlined above is very unlikely.
@serpserpserp: You are correct. The loss of even 10% of profits and how money flows through the economy (think $10 spent today will probably be spent 200x over during the year) will have an impact.
Remember [the wine glut?] (https://fare.org.au/the-wine-glut-an-analysis-of-the-oversupā¦)
Our products will probably have to go elsewhere for cheaper prices as other producers (French Wine etc) sell into China.
Yes, it's bad. Look at unemployment, etc.
Sure… the queues at Centrelink are longer.
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=BNTnJzā¦
It must only be Social Distancing.
Nothing to me indicates we areā¦ā¦.
Oh really? So two successive qtrs of negative GDP growth means nothing to you?
House prices have increased
House prices don't need to go down to be in a recession. Not when so much government policy is in play to keep prices high.
Spending has gone up in regards to new and used cars
New cars. No
https://performancedrive.com.au/australian-vehicle-sales-forā¦
used cars. Maybe. But that is just based off of the CarSales.com.au market talk.
Shops online and instore are pumping full of people buying things.
You realize it is Christmas right?
Fair points, this is why I made the question.
To be educated on the right answers:)
I guess what I was seeing was making me question the "its a bad day for all Australians" when I am seeing shops packed with people blowing money.
Regardless of xmas, they were making it sound like we were in the pits…..
Regardless of xmas, they were making it sound like we were in the pitsā¦..
They overblow stuff. Australia compared to the rest of the world is in a good spot. But overall, we are in a bad spot compared to years past and we are in a recession.
But the Libs always fearmonger so they can do things like……… Delay the superannuation increase! I'm pretty sure this is what all the fearmongering is leading to. Or some other promise they want to break.
You are right.
Sharemarket got bailed out
Housing got bailed out
People got bailed out from JK / JS
Only a jobs + tax recession. Who will end up paying, regular wage earners. Companies got JS to buy their products, JK to pay dividends with it.
Remember that if the outcome is that widespread hardship and destitution was avoided but we end up with everyone paying some more taxes over years to come, then that is a big win.
The cascading harms of āletting it runā is what caused the misery of the great depression.
Iām still not convinced this ride is anywhere near over…
The cascading harms of āletting it runā is what caused the misery of the great depression
If you read my comment I think it is JK paying dividends that is the worst part. Home maker is probably equally as bad.
If you think about it, if you have a lock down strategy like NZ or Australia until the virus is basically eliminated then all you need is to bail everyone out for 3 to 4 months then only export industries (tourism / education etc) would need some form of bail out.
Problem as we have seen now is endless waves of shut downs, bail outs, waves of businesses closing and basically limitless supplies of PPE with only limits being the amount of health personnel that can wear it.
The great depression of 1930s wasn't caused by a pandemic so we shouldn't necessarily compare. Yes we need to bail out the economy like we did in 2008/9 but we know that after both bail outs finances were never repaired. Politicians are basically pointing all their economies squarely down the path of bankruptcy.
^This
Look at the debt that the government is piling on.
The money is still flowing, but it's all borrowed.
Rather than a bubble, itās now upgraded a balloon, so itāll be more stretchy… until…
A 21st century recession, with OzB forums and other forms of social media, maybe people donāt need to hang around the streets to curb their boredom. š
Yes, government also ākicking the canā, so those running the country can avoid dealing with issues, leaving it for the next mob… cycle continues…
The Govt do not determine if we are in recession they just announce the facts the economist give them ie 2 periods of negative growth = recession.
To answer your question the government has propped up the housing industry with a load of incentives so increases/stable housing prices are not surprise.
New car sales are at an all time low, this also makes sense used cars are selling strong. - my advice is now is the time to buy a new car
We are bleeding money in exports esp due to China essentially financially bleeding us out - the worst part is China will only continue to act hostile to Australian business as the COVID19 sage draws on. - we sold out to the devil in China and now our entire country is screwed. - for a long time we allowed manufacturing to die thinking the Chinese would continue to build our 'shit' for a fraction of the cost. Now we are paying for it…. - we need to stop allowing Chinese investment as it is probing to be short term gain for long term pain.
In addition, the education sector, entertainment industry, hospitality and tourism have all taken the brunt of the $$$ losses from this virus.
We will lose a lot more money in years to come, im in Victoria and our Premier is an idiot and is essentially propping up the one sector that doesnt need it - the building industry (jobs for his CMFEU mates) as the building industry essentially worked though most of the pandemic and is probably the one industry that needs to take a pay cut. But you wont hear the left wing media call him out for giving most of the financial stimulus to a male dominated industry that doesn't need it….
The NSW Premier seems a bit more switched on offering massive tax cuts for business to move to NSW and aiming to tax the wealthiest individuals by getting rid of stamp duty and putting in a annual land tax. - intelligent people know it is not income tax that needs to change but 'wealth' taxes to make the system more fair.
Overall the federal government will do what they always do paper over the cracks with high immigration to make Australia look financially strong 'pre-capita' as our standards of living continue to drop quickly for socialist ideals.
really we should stop 'selling' steel and other minerals to china it would damage there manufacturing - sure it would hurt us in the short term but long term it would help us greatly as it would force China to come to the table and resolved our differences and recommence free trade.
Stop selling to China is your solution. What happened during the past 20 years of uninterrupted economic growth? This is the first time it stalled because Chinese economic growth stalled but it is picking up very quick.
Keynesian economics say each country do what they are efficient in. Australia can rely on specialised pockets of manufacturing, the rest they can leave to others..
Sell to India? Do your research?
Never said stop selling to china i said dont be a push over and let them smack us around.
The whole world is pissed with them right now it wouldnt be hard to smack back for probably the 1st time in 20 years
Learnt one thing in life. There are bosses and there are the workers. Applies to businesses which are subservient to customers
Most bosses are not pleasant, at least in the workers' views.
Most workers dont want to be pushovers but they keep quiet.
Facts of life. Personally I have swallowed my pride, kept my job and fed my family.
We are fortunate we have social security job support payments etc but they wont last.
The economic forecast is getting brighter because China is picking up. Smack them around and they leave usalone . The our recession first in 20 years will last another 20.
The country is being propped up by the Libs socialist handouts. As a result, many are living in la la land. Wait until April when reality hits
Wait until April when reality hits
I dont know or agree. Everyone's been saying. Wait until January. Wait until April. Wait until November. Wait until February. We wait and nothing changes lol
I've been waiting for the property markets to crash since 2010. Still waiting. Maybe 2022. See how we go.
Property markets will never crash. Too many high positioned politicians have 4 or 5 investment properties. They wont let that happen in there lifetime.
will never crash
Never say never !!!!!
;-)
Funny money ensures the all-important asset bubbles remain inflated.
But real incomes have been in a recession for a few years now, even if you believe the 'official' CPI figures.
its a false economy… all this spending is/as taxpayer money gone toward propping up the profit line of businesses
Its all a scam to have an excuse to lower interest rates to near zero so we are encouraged to borrow and spend like crazy.
Its the first recession where incomes have gone UP!
Money is everywhere to be spent.
Meanwhile the government's huge debt costs next to nothing to service.
So the agenda is to have everyone hocked to the hilt and have us locked into the banks forever!
Furthermore rising property price means megabucks in taxes for government at ALL levels.
So Yes this so called recession is a huge scam and an integral part of the COVID19 mega scam!
Furthermore rising property price means megabucks in taxes for government at ALL levels.
It does!!
Also rising prices means people are buying property, hence, later down the track, pensions will count all property as "wealth" and then less pension will be paid.
And least but not last: no more wasting money building "housing commission" residences !!!!!!
ABSOLUTELY PERFECT!!!!
Machiavellian !!!!!!
Exactamondo!
That is the big plan
Take note anyone planning to get the pension
You will need to be flat broke and by then pensions will be paid as coupons that can only be used to buy eseentials!
Or using that cashless welfare card that is being trialled right now.
So the agenda is to have everyone hocked to the hilt and have us locked into the banks forever!
Everyone cash out now! Then they cant take our money!
"Recession" is a technical, statistically trigger, terminology.
Usually it has little to do with real life of real people.
The wealthy will continue accumulating and generating wealth and the … the not_so_wealthy will continue sinking in poverty and despair.
Nothing new, nothing changes. Nothing of substance.
Look at that "recession" terminology like the "employment rate" that, regardless of what happens it is always around 4% to 8% figures. Which means nothing other than the ability of the statisticians of the Bureau to consistently create nice looking figures … that magic 5% regardless of how big the fires are or how deep are we sinking.
Creativity at its best!
the not_so_wealthy will continue sinking in poverty and despair.
crime rates will go up?
More controversial forum posts.
Even fewer people with comprehensive car insurance.
@kiitos: YEs….and then we have more posts about them….and then those self righteous people will bag on them for it…
oh yeah true…with no one working anymore, what better way to entertain themselves by posting a bait topic on this site?
BUt crime rates will still go if the people who lost their jobs have no interests in wasting time on the internet….
crime rates will go up?
Not necessarily.
Criminality and poverty are not a must.
Most people living well below the poverty line are honest, trustworthy and true blue Australians.
For a reason or another they are poor (in wealth) but their morals and principles are usually way way better than those of the filthy rich.
Criminals commit crimes.
Paupers commit to survive.
well i suppose thats nice to hear……
The recession only applies to those that lost their job. The rest are spending big apparently.
I'm not sure, the government locked me out of the country for 9 months so far so I can't say for sure.
Recession = yes.
Experiencing Stagflation = yes.
Heading towards an imploding Depression = yes.
Inflation at groceries, stagnant wage growth, not a booming economy, high unemployment, interest rate at a record low 0.10%, "service sector", no new job creation, $trillions indebted by the corporations.
Mass job losses and company administrations due to the Big Rona.
Gov't prints QE and drops interest rates for the Big Rona.
0% interest for cash savings. Super withdrawals. Dump everything into stonks.
Stock market over valued everywhere and at an all time high.
Takeovers. Capital raising (never seen so many in a year!). Why do companies do this? Because corporations have high debts, sh*t cashflow and they need capital even just for running expenses.
Everyone suddenly thinks they are a sophisticated trader and can beat the market (have you forgotten the sea of red in Mar/Apr/May, where you lost 50% overnight? You have no control except to click on the sell button in time and cut your losses) = Rort.
More QE into stonks market to save us from a 70% valuation drop, and ofc we need more interest rate cuts.
Still no Royal Commission against the Super industry which is a rort imo.
Stocks/Super/any investing = all intertwined into property market (rort).
Look at all the mortgages in 90 days arrears or more, pending inevitable foreclosure (that means one is unable to pay fortnightly rent for at least 3 months straight!).
By accounting definition, a mortgage is a Liability, NOT an Asset. Which genius decided this was an Asset lmao.
Small businesses and large commercials shutting down. Bankruptcies, left right and centre. Last time I checked (6 months ago) commercial vacancies was at 27%.
Extremely high personal debt (credit cards). Household debt (no savings, finance a mad car). Mortgage debt (the poor souls with 1 residential & 2 investment mortgages). Corporation debt (think of all the corporation write-offs).
0 lending, as people do not want to indebt themselves to the eyeballs anymore. Confidence is super low. Spending is therefore low. Economy doesn't spin.
If people start defaulting, it dominos into the Bank's books. If 1 Bank (doesn't matter which) has too many bad debts, all 4 will go, no questions asked.
More QE printing into oblivion to save the Banks from collapsing.
What is my hard earnt $100 worth when slaving hours/years/decades away, when the govt can print $trillions out of thin air for free at the snap of a finger? = It's worth sh*t all mate. = $ devaluation (think Venezuela).
Also we cannot cut interest rates any further into negative %.
Interest rates slashed by 4.25% in 6 months from 7.25% to 3%, during GFC of 08-09. We cannot slash the 0.10% by ~4% to save us again.
Also this time around, we don't have our ally Chinese bailing us out big time and saving us, nor the simultaneous US cash care package.
The Big global Rona.
Trade wars.
Potential WW3.
Each country for their own.
Australia has run out of bullets in their chamber and nobody is coming to save us…
Stop kicking the fkn can down the road…
Scared sh*tless after this post? You should be.
Recession or nah she'll be right? You tell me.
Same story in every country. World is heading toward a communist state and it's what the governments wanted. The politicians all got paid off by the IMF/UN to shut down economies to be centralised within big corporations for maximum control. That's how they'll enforce UBI, forced vaccinations and ever tightening survelliance. Buy Bitcoin.
Funny you say this, I literally had this conversation 2 hours ago…
Any recommendations/links to your mentors?
As always, govt will bail out the banks on taxpayers money, and the bankers will get huge bonuses, they have too much money in super for bailing out I guess
Hence adding to the point of printing to infinity & deval
We are in a recession by Australian standards, which doesn't mean much. Our recessions are still far better than most countries' best year of growth.
That's what I was thinking as well, have a look at England right now if you want to see what a proper recession is like, they are getting smashed.
Has your neighbour stopped lifting at 4am?