[AMA] I'm a VIC-Based COVID-19 Modeller

p1 ama on 02/08/2020 - 16:49

Hey Guys!

New restrictions for everyone in VIC today! I'm an academic at a major university based in VIC and have been involved in projects modelling the outbreak of COVID-19 as well as its social and economic impacts. By way of background, I have worked as an economist for my entire professional career, in government, private sector, teaching, and academic roles.

Ask me anything! I'll reply if I feel I'm qualified.

NB. This is not political and I won't comment on any overly political points. My focus is on understanding what the data says, disentangling what are facts from what is sensationalism, and thinking about the economic impacts of the pandemic.

Introduce Yourself COVID-19

closed Comments

  • skid on 02/08/2020 - 20:16

    From the modelling, could the second wave in VIC have been prevented by extending the first lockdown a couple weeks (to mid June)?

    • p1 ama on 02/08/2020 - 20:29
      +4

      No, not at all, they are largely from two different sources. I don't think it's accurate to call what we're seeing now a second wave. This is the first wave. The infections that we had in March-April were almost all returning travellers and their contacts. The overwhelming evidence from many places around the world is that once this sort of community transmission starts to kick in, it's very difficult to control.

      • serpserpserp on 02/08/2020 - 21:27

        No, not at all, they are largely from two different sources.

        I thought the community transmission started from the security guard at one of the lockdown hotels sleeping with a positive case that was isolating?

        Is it fair to say if that hadn't gone undetected initially there wouldn't have been any community transmission? After all I think he spread it to the other security guards/hotel staff/family and it went from there.

        • netjock on 02/08/2020 - 23:08

          I thought the community transmission started from the security guard at one of the lockdown hotels sleeping with a positive case that was isolating?

          Probably a few cases of security guards and hotel staff getting infected due to lack of training. A friend from NZ said in NZ they got the army to do quarantine. The army is highly trained. Security guards and staff are casuals who might just be able to fake it at best of times. The security guard that got lucky is just a shinning example to sell newspapers.

          • barenesscessities on 03/08/2020 - 03:22
            +1

            @netjock: Lack of training absolutely but plain lack of sense by both parties.
            Person A - The returning overseas traveller is at the hotel to quarantine, for 2 wks, with no contact.
            Person B - The security guard or hotel room service food delivery or police or army personnel are to perform their duties in this quarantine environment, without contact.
            So person A and person B shouldn't be f$%king f$%king anyways, literally! Training or not, contact-less on both ends and instead their ends got as intimate as possible

            Thanks for this educational AMA too OP

          • twjr on 04/08/2020 - 13:06

            @netjock: NZ only really got the army involved after a Covid positive person in hotel quarantine broke out and went to the local supermarket. They got lucky that he didn't spread the disease. Like the outbreak in Vic shows, it's pretty hard to plan for malice and stupid.

            • netjock on 04/08/2020 - 15:48

              @twjr:

              it's pretty hard to plan for malice and stupid.

              You new in Australia? Look at the leadership of the country, claiming good financial management when it was really selling out to China that prevented the last financial crisis. If you pretend long enough that we're the "lucky country" you would think we will be alright with COVID19 too. We are never "thankful country" we just pretend we're "lucky".

  • morelife on 02/08/2020 - 20:46
    +1

    What kind of tools/software do you use for modelling? Do you use PGMs?

    Also, how effective is wearing masks in reducing the spread of the virus?

    • p1 ama on 02/08/2020 - 22:27
      +2

      I initially began with structural modelling, so you set up a model where you have agents with particular utility functions describing their behaviour. You then put various constraints on these individuals and you put them into a simulation with parameters tuned to how people behave and interact in the real world. This is just a dynamic programming (constrained optimisation) problem. I don't do this anymore simply because there are people much better at this than I am and I don't think it helps us to understand much about what's going on.

      Most of the analysis I do now is based on simple regression analysis. Cursory analysis can be done by pretty simple regression. More complex analysis can be done by a myriad of Bayesian methods (I don't use PGMs, but PGMs are an example of a Bayesian method, I suppose). This is more useful for forecasting than to understand the general "big picture".

      Even a basic regression using world data will give you what you expect - places with higher population density, lower socio economic status, less "office" jobs,…etc. predict more cases.

      • Jenus on 03/08/2020 - 09:49

        I'm not an economist, but I am familiar with constraint optimisation. Does the model try to maximise overall utility given the various agents? And the constraints are dynamic depending on how a particular social group looks like? What does that then tell us? Is the final objective function in pure $ terms or some other unit that is able to tell how much worse off the group will be coming out of a particular scenario being simulated for?

        What would be a good resource to look at modelling such utility functions?

  • [Deactivated] on 02/08/2020 - 20:55

    Any opinions or data as to differences in contract tracing between the states.

    Is there a reason why contract tracing seems to be mire successful in nsw?

    • p1 ama on 02/08/2020 - 22:28
      +1

      When you have 650 cases vs. 20 cases, obviously it's much easier to trace 20. That's really what it comes down to.

      • [Deactivated] on 03/08/2020 - 06:54

        Sorry. Didn't ask my question properly.

        I meant in early stages in vic compared to nsw.

        News(at least ABC) seems to suggest that vic was not as successful with contract tracing early on.

        Its hard to find data on number of cases with ' unknown' source from 3+ weeks ago to confirm if this is true.

  • onetwothreefour on 02/08/2020 - 21:14

    Any idea when this will all be over and we can get back to normal again?

  • BuyoTheCat on 02/08/2020 - 21:14

    can you give an example of a few covid19 related things that you have modelled?

    • p1 ama on 02/08/2020 - 22:39

      I've discussed plenty of things here and there on this thread. What sort of things are you interested in? I can discuss further.

  • brokenglish on 02/08/2020 - 21:19

    Simple Yes/No question. Is VIC fked?

  • Jenus on 02/08/2020 - 21:48

    Could describe the modelling process in general? Specifically, how do you model on something that has no precedence? Or do you make a judgement call on using data that best mirrors what is happening in Victoria now? And what would that be? Likewise, how often to you refresh this model, particularly with real data that comes in on a daily basis? Or does it initially start off as a purely theoretical exercise but you update the model dynamically as new data comes in?

    • p1 ama on 02/08/2020 - 22:42
      +2

      Could describe the modelling process in general? Specifically, how do you model on something that has no precedence?

      There's plenty of precedence. The fact that it's a pandemic is largely irrelevant. The economic impacts are very similar to things like natural disasters. In fact, the patterns we see are almost identical in terms of the people and areas that tend to be the most affected.

      Or do you make a judgement call on using data that best mirrors what is happening in Victoria now?

      I don't work with this sort of real time forecasting model. Most of what I look at involves investigating the sorts of areas where outbreaks are likely to occur using worldwide data. With data on things such as population density, the kinds of jobs people work in, income, ratio of people taking PT to cars…etc., along with data compiled from other sources, we can investigate what are the "risk factors" (so to speak) of an outbreak.

    • p1 ama on 02/08/2020 - 22:38
      +10

      You're completely wrong. Data from multiple sources including traffic flow data, public transport data, pedestrian traffic in the CBD, as well as others, show that there is no statistically significant difference between "following social isolation rules" (so to speak) in VIC and other Australian states. Melbourne is simply unlucky, that's all.

      • adante on 03/08/2020 - 02:20

        In light of that, do you have any comments on the relatively higher rate of police infringements issued in VIC (that appeared to be happening prior to the June surge)? If the behaviour is currently the same between states, it seems then that the enforcement is simply heavier in vic (ie they are behaving the same as other states, but being fined at a higher rate that behaviour). I suppose I then see a few possibilities, both of which are kind of funny:

        1. The heavier enforcement is affecting the behaviour of vic residents and causing them to fall in line with other states (hence no statistically significant difference). Without this heavier enforcement, VIC would have a lower (or at least - different) adherence rate.

        2. The heavier enforcement is not affecting the behaviour of vic residents. It is not achieving its nominally stated intention.

        This is of course a lay intuition so just curious as to what other factors I'm not considering here

        • p1 ama on 03/08/2020 - 02:37
          +6

          It's almost definitely the latter, which is not funny at all. My colleagues who research crime tell me that it's been widely investigated and there is evidence to suggest that for very low level crimes (e.g. parking offences or speeding, say), harsher penalties do not deter crime.

          I would suggest something similar is going on here.

          However, that being said, the whole story around people doing the wrong thing and getting fined is a very small part of the problem. At the end of the day, one person driving 330km to buy a Big Mac is stupid, but it's not driving the spread. How many people did the guy come into contact with? Maybe 1 or 2? And for how long? Maybe a few seconds each. Yeah that's not the problem.

          The problem is long and sustained contact. When you work with someone in a factory. When you work with someone in their home. These are the problems.

          That's why aged care and meatworks are the industries that have problems right now.

          • TEER3X on 03/08/2020 - 12:59

            @p1 ama: That and those places have stale recycled air conditioned air (including heated air).

            The same as cruise ships, aeroplanes, casinos, etc.

      • peterw1 on 03/08/2020 - 08:49

        whilst there may not be a statistical difference yet, the premier himself has asked why so many Melbournians who were asked to stay at home and isolate weren't home when random checks were made. I think the figure was about 25%. This could be poverty, a lack of sick leave, driving people to go to work and hence increasing the spread. I don't know. I do agree that from an GDP point of view Victoria contributes significantly to Australias coffers. The shut down of Victoria due to the increase in covid numbers is a massive problem. I am still tying to understand how it came to this.

        • ssquid on 03/08/2020 - 11:59
          +1

          They don't know they weren't home, they just didn't answer the door. It sounds like typical spin aimed to direct the public's outrage.
          If you're sick and in bed are you going to get up to answer the door? Or what if they're just responsibly self-isolating, watching a movie with headphones on?

        • p1 ama on 03/08/2020 - 12:38
          +1

          whilst there may not be a statistical difference yet

          There is no statistical difference based on past data. There's no point arguing about the data.

          the premier himself has asked why so many Melbournians who were asked to stay at home and isolate weren't home when random checks were made. I think the figure was about 25%. This could be poverty, a lack of sick leave, driving people to go to work and hence increasing the spread. I don't know.

          This has nothing to do with your original point, which is that VIC is somehow worse than other states. There's no evidence from other states that their proportion is less than 25%. As far as I'm aware, that data doesn't exist.

          I am still tying to understand how it came to this.

          I already explained - it's bad luck, combined with a bungled hotel quarantine program.

    • netjock on 02/08/2020 - 23:18
      +1

      any explanations as to why melbournians seem to be more ill disciplined than aussies in other states.

      I guess it doesn't make sense when Victoria has 2nd highest GDP of all states and territories, probably 6th in land mass vs all the states and territories. I guess we just somehow make stuff from lack of discipline.

  • worrierwan on 02/08/2020 - 22:23

    Do you or anyone have any clarity on whether we can visit partners after 8pm under the current lockdown rules? I really can't find concrete answer to this issue because all the advice is worded weirdly

    • p1 ama on 03/08/2020 - 02:38

      Nope, I haven't got a clue.

    • Banana on 03/08/2020 - 09:27

      "From 5am – 8pm, you can only leave your home for one of the following four reasons:
      …
      Personal:
      You can still visit an intimate partner."

      from DHHS website https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/updated-restrictions-announcemen…

      So the answer is no.

    • worrierwan on 03/08/2020 - 22:32

      From an abc new article, it looks like you can.

      "An evening curfew will be implemented across Melbourne from 8:00pm to 5:00am every day, which started Sunday night, forbidding anyone from leaving the home except for working, receiving or giving care, or visiting their partner."
      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-02/victoria-coronavirus-…

      • Banana on 04/08/2020 - 15:36

        Reading directly from the DHHS website, I am leaning towards only between 8pm-5am, but quote from Danny the man himself suggests that the curfew hours do not apply when it comes to visiting your "intimate partner". Though I am grateful and relieved that I don't have to be Miss Cinderella when it comes to visiting mine, I can't help but to think that is a massive loophole some people will abuse.

        • ssquid on 04/08/2020 - 16:47
          +1

          I suspect maybe they've used poor wording and the reality is you're allowed to spend the night away from home at your partner's house, but not actually travel to/from there between 8pm-5am. So come 8pm, wherever you currently are is where you have to stay for the night.

          • Banana on 04/08/2020 - 17:29
            +1

            @ssquid: They just posted this on their twitter account and a few users have highlighted that the new outlets are reporting conflicting info. I am also incline to say that you cannot travel to your partner's outside of the hours stated.
            https://twitter.com/VicGovDHHS/status/1290486294724751360

            • ssquid on 05/08/2020 - 15:29

              @Banana: Yep, plus more clarifications from Dan at his daily pow-wow:

              When you are with your partner, or they are with you, depending on which home you are visiting, that is essentially your home and the rules apply to you as if you both lived in that premises, So, if you, at 8.00pm, are at your partner's house, then the curfew applies to you from that home.

    • GourmetFoodie on 05/08/2020 - 14:22

      Check out the DHHS twitter feed. This has been asked many many times. You can travel to your intimate partner's house outside of the curfew hours. Once curfew hits - 8pm - you must stay the night at whichever house you are at (yours or your partners).

  • lousy on 02/08/2020 - 22:33

    Is a further extension to the current lockdown still an option ? What would the triggers likely be to enact that ?

    • p1 ama on 03/08/2020 - 02:38
      +1

      I'm not too sure, this is a legal question I suppose.

  • CalmLemons on 02/08/2020 - 22:35
    +1

    What's your opinion on the US economic recovery and how it is going to affect us?

    Seems to be a lot of market ignorance in the US at the moment, eventually they will sort out covid and recover but do you see this turning into the usual 10 year economic downturn?

    That said, Australia was mostly immune from the last GFC, well, we held our own a lot better than other countries. Mainly so because our largest trading partner seems to get back on their feet a lot quicker. And this time the same also seems to be the case, as far as we know. I guess when a Hermes store in China does $2.3 million on a first day open after pandemic lockdown that is a good sign for us?

    I guess this is different though as this is a temporary 'blip' in that there is just a temporary disruption to the economy in terms of businesses being shut down, not people going bankrupt because of dodgy sub prime loans.

    What has been the actual goal of your modelling and did these goals come to recommend any feasible solutions that would reduce the impact of covid?

    • askme69 on 03/08/2020 - 00:09

      The WORLD has been kicking the CAN down the road for 20 years. The day of reckoning was coming until COVID, it will still come.

  • markathome on 02/08/2020 - 22:46
    +1

    Fantastic thread.

    Do you understand the reasons for the curfew?

    My friend is concerned that it will just make the shops and exercise trails more crowded. As exercising at night (which my friend enjoys) will be shifted to the day and late shopping (which I do) will be nixed. Even if once-a-day is followed isn't the risk most people pick popular times to shop (after work, lunch and mid-morning) and spend longer there as they need to buy everything in one shop?

    • kingsville on 02/08/2020 - 23:03
      +3

      My take is that the curfew and 5km rule represent what people SHOULD have considered as reasonable in Stage 3, but they had to make it explicit because people are not reasonable…..

    • netjock on 02/08/2020 - 23:20
      +2

      Do you understand the reasons for the curfew?

      Stop people having house parties. Like the 2 people who turned up at KFC at 2am to order 20 meals.

      As exercising at night (which my friend enjoys) will be shifted to the day and late shopping (which I do) will be nixed.

      It is Victoria, the sun doesn't come up until 6:30am and goes down at like 5:30pm. Plenty of darkness for exercise.

      • ssquid on 03/08/2020 - 01:15

        How do you get your sun to come up that early? Mine's about an hour later.

    • p1 ama on 02/08/2020 - 23:34
      +5

      Fantastic thread.

      Glad you're enjoying it.

      Do you understand the reasons for the curfew?

      No, but I will speculate. I hazard a guess and say that this has something to do with business and workplace restrictions coming out tomorrow. Much of the work that happens in the meat industry (which is one of the worst hit by outbreak) occurs during night-shift, not day-shift. I think this is either some attempt to move the work to day shift or to reduce output in some capacity.

      I would guess that this has very little to do with individuals. Who goes out from 8pm - 5am anyway? Even if they are, who else is around for them to infect?

      My friend is concerned that it will just make the shops and exercise trails more crowded. As exercising at night (which my friend enjoys) will be shifted to the day and late shopping (which I do) will be nixed. Even if once-a-day is followed isn't the risk most people pick popular times to shop (after work, lunch and mid-morning) and spend longer there as they need to buy everything in one shop?

      I generally agree. You could have spread out shopping into 24 hours but instead, it's now been compressed into 15 hours, which just seems a bit silly to me because you're almost doubling the "density" of shoppers so to speak.

    • lookwithin on 03/08/2020 - 00:09
      +9

      I believe the rationale for the curfew is to limit family gathering and easier enforcement of restrictions by police officers.

      • euk on 03/08/2020 - 07:43

        Exactly this. It's easy to pick out those who are not complying vs having to pull over every person and ask what they are doing previously and being told they are an essential worker, which is just an immense resource allocation nightmare.

  • Billy Herrington on 02/08/2020 - 23:01
    +5

    Very insightful thread here OP - Phenomenal work here and no doubt in your modelling as well

  • kingsville on 02/08/2020 - 23:03
    +1

    Do you use a Value of Statistical Life that varies by age?!? Contentious I know…

  • funnysht on 02/08/2020 - 23:43
    +1

    Doo you think wearing masks mandatory earlier would have reduced rates?
    Look at Japan other asian countries/?

  • lachhelix on 03/08/2020 - 00:02
    +5

    Just want to say thanks and I agree wholeheartedly with every one of your responses - nice change from the world of experts from Facebook University

  • bazingaa on 03/08/2020 - 01:37
    +1

    Can you share your GitHub account ?

    • p1 ama on 03/08/2020 - 03:01
      +20

      I would, but all of the stuff on my GitHub would identify me and where I work. I don't currently have any COVID-19 related stuff on there anyway.

      I'm not against putting a face to my OzB account, but I've been a public servant in the past and will probably be employed by the APS at some point again in the future. I like to talk politics on OzB, and publically expressed political opinions tend to be frowned upon in the public service.

      I also teach, so there's every chance my students will find me here and start getting me to find bargains for them.

      • bazingaa on 03/08/2020 - 12:14

        Thanks mate, I just wanted learn more about the projects that we have to get hands on with to become a modeller like you. Would you be able to shed some light on how could someone develop modelling skills to be applied with ML tools in your experience?

  • adante on 03/08/2020 - 02:22

    1. What tooling/software do you use for analysis? Does this differ at all from your colleagues and if so, how?

    2. Do you have any thoughts or comments on those madlads in Sweden?

    • p1 ama on 03/08/2020 - 03:13
      +2

      What tooling/software do you use for analysis? Does this differ at all from your colleagues and if so, how?

      I use R. If you want to do something, there's likely a package for it.

      For more computationally intensive things, nothing beats C++. I used to use C++ much more when I was a computational statistician. I do more applied work these days.

      I'm broadly familiar with MATLAB and JULIA. I've never found MATLAB to be as widely useful as R. JULIA is a fantastic language but nobody knows it.

      Python is a good all-purpose language I think everyone should know, but for my work it's not as useful as R. Tensorflow is something I would learn more of if I had time.

      Do you have any thoughts or comments on those madlads in Sweden?

      Exactly what I expected would happen did happen. The most vulnerable died and then cases continue rising but deaths rise much more slowly as it's mostly young people getting it.

      They do have very high per capita deaths, with around 0.6% of their population dying, however I think history will be kinder to Sweden than we are being now. Policy aside, I respect their ability to get on with it in Sweden. Want to stay at home? Stay at home. Want to go out? Go out. I'm glad it didn't descend into chaos, but that's how things are when you don't politicise everything like the US.

      Anyway, I don't know much about Sweden, but here's some news: https://www.euronews.com/2020/07/28/sweden-s-coronavirus-spr…

    • lookwithin on 03/08/2020 - 08:03

      See below opinion on Sweden's approach.

      Note that Sweden's approach is not totally unrestricted and the economic damage has been the same as the other Nordic regions but with more deaths.

      https://www.google.com/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/no-aust…

  • [Deactivated] on 03/08/2020 - 08:20

    I have lost my job in this COVID pandemic and I have not opted into govt finance support! Plenty of jobs on Seek but no one is hiring?

    • p1 ama on 03/08/2020 - 12:39
      +1

      Sorry to hear that - but yes, you're absolutely right. The good news is that the economic recovery will likely be quick and many businesses will find that they're short of staff when they begin to open again.

  • t2kb123 on 03/08/2020 - 08:22
    +1

    i dont have any questions to ask but just wanted to thank you for doing this AMA.

    Your answers were all really detailed and honestly your insight and opinion has made me feel a little bit more positive in this dark dark time, thanks again!

    • [Deactivated] on 03/08/2020 - 09:29

      Don't be scared of the dark buddy it can't harm you!

    • p1 ama on 03/08/2020 - 12:40

      Great, always love a good discussion about the actual data.

  • 1Kenobi on 03/08/2020 - 08:44
    -1

    What’s your predictions for the stock market response

  • herbo on 03/08/2020 - 08:51

    Do you think that the application of level 3 restrictions is warranted across all of regional Vic? What data would support this move? Some places haven't had cases for weeks.

  • ar7ist on 03/08/2020 - 08:56
    +2

    Thanks for the AMA. Quite insightful.

    I'm not sure if it's relevant but given that you're an economist, is this the right time to buy property? Or should people wait - how long?

  • earth worm jim on 03/08/2020 - 09:21

    Do you have a hypothesis on why the economy and job employment figures are crashing but still the stock market is rocketing up up up ?

  • Duckie2hh on 03/08/2020 - 09:25

    Any comments on the theoretical time frame that domestic and international airline travels would resume based on the latest modelling you have conducted?

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  • gomelbcityfc on 03/08/2020 - 10:39
    -1

    Hi OP, thanks for your valuable insights :) A couple of q’s.

    1. What is the reasoning behind the theory that the virus will spread more if my extended family visit me, vs. if I cram into a bus with 30 other people I don’t know?

    2. Why is there no focus on religious gatherings, seems to be ad hoc, some are allowed to gather while others are not, I’m particularly thinking that Easter this year was a non-event, while Ramadan and Eid al-Adha were allowed to go on. In contrast many people have been fined for attending church. Is the government afraid to criticise certain groups?

    Disclaimer: I have no religious bias, although I am Christian, in fact I never separate the three “Abrahamic religions” in my thinking, Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, as they have the same origins and mosly the same values (granted there are extremists on all sides) per: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abrahamic_religions . I also grew up among muslims in my home country.

    • dtc on 03/08/2020 - 11:02
      +3

      Mosques were shut down just the same as churches. Not sure why you think otherwise. Ramadan was observed following the (at the time) restrictions on the number of attendees.

      Both of these facts are easy to find from the most cursory of googling

      • Jaystea on 03/08/2020 - 11:09
        -1

        Re: 1. I think the answer can be founded in what the trade off is.

        Visiting family and friends for recreation is not an “essential”. Going to work, however, and helping support the crumbling economy wherever possible is essential (if you have one of those jobs). Of course, this has to be done in the safest possible way - social distancing, hand hygiene, masks.

        It’s not ideal, but it’s the more appropriate trade off.

  • Jaystea on 03/08/2020 - 11:06
    +1

    I’m interested in the age break down of those affected.

    In regards to the proportion of younger people getting and spreading the disease, is it more attributable to flouting of social distancing rules and isolation etc? It is it more attributable to the fact that younger people are more likely to be pet of the essential workforce (think industries such as medical, retail, hospitality).

    Because then instead of it being a blame game Of “all young people do is run around and rendezvous, it actually changes into a “younger people face higher risk of contracting the virus at the cost of helping the economy run” (to an extent, anyway).

    • p1 ama on 03/08/2020 - 12:49
      +9

      In regards to the proportion of younger people getting and spreading the disease, is it more attributable to flouting of social distancing rules and isolation etc? It is it more attributable to the fact that younger people are more likely to be pet of the essential workforce (think industries such as medical, retail, hospitality).

      Definitely the latter.

      Because then instead of it being a blame game Of “all young people do is run around and rendezvous, it actually changes into a “younger people face higher risk of contracting the virus at the cost of helping the economy run” (to an extent, anyway).

      I think the media narrative on this is a bit problematic. At the end of the day, we need essential workers whether they're supermarket clerks, doctors or teachers. The majority of these people are young. Most 30 year olds are working, most 70 year olds are not, so it's obvious that there will be more cases amongst 30 year olds. I don't think that's controversial.

      I would say it's a good thing that young people are the ones who are getting it as opposed to old people. Regardless of what the rhetoric is, a 30 year old is over 10 times less likely to die than a 60 year old (or something close to that number). If someone has to work on the front line and get sick, it should be someone under 40 (and I fall into that category myself, so I'm not just trying to free-ride).

      The idea that young people are running around and meeting up is just not true. It's just that everyone loves to rag on and beat up "young people". Just think about the different reactions. "Grandma pops over to see her grandkids because she hasn't seen them in weeks", reaction is "aww poor Granny, I feel so bad for her, she doesn't deserve a fine, she's just doing what's normal". On the other hand, "young guy visits his mate to have a drink", reaction is "idiot, moron, anti-science, fine him, throw him in jail, blasphemous"…etc.

      Anyway, the narrative is irrelevant in the scheme of things because that's not where the majority of the spread is occuring. As I've said before, the media picks up on these silly stories (e.g. guy drives 330km to buy BigMac) and people become outraged, but this isn't the problem.

      • Craze on 03/08/2020 - 21:00

        Great responses, thanks for the insight OP.

        I guess some things never change, re: media stories that chooses to cherry pick and sensationalize some stories to report on. Makes a good headline story but sadly doesn't address the core issue.

      • syousef on 05/08/2020 - 15:46

        If a 30 year old gets it, recovers and has heart trouble, issues with lungs, other organs or epilpsy and the outcome is that they suffer for the rest of their life, which in some ways is worse than someone who's lived a full life dying.

        And the problem isn't the silly one off stories. The problem is that for every silly one off story that does get reported there are likely hundreds that aren't. You seem to think these small breaches don't matter because you're looking at the statistical probability for spread from one incident and dismiss it. But in a pandemic those seeds become clusters quickly. The nature of exponential growth is something you're no doubt intimate with so your attitude to this surprises me.

        You're also wrong about the outrage against older people. You only have to look at the stories about the woman who broke out of lockdown with her kids to attempt to attend their father's funeral.

  • RichB on 03/08/2020 - 11:09

    Thanks OP for your time. From a sampling perspective, the current stats appear flawed as we seemingly only record the outcomes of people who elect to be tested, who represent a mere subset of a broader group of positive cases.

    From a sampling perspective it seems impossible to draw a valid conclusion to be extrapolated across the broader population. You would have to cast a random sample in order to do that (25/50/100k people); I've not heard of us doing that in Aus yet.

    As a simplistic example you can see the trend line of the 5/7/etc. day rolling average and the case numbers swinging wildly on either side of it, up and down. That difference represents uncertainty or the testing margin of error. Some days it is more than 25%. I sincerely hope there is more sophisticated measurement and recording than what the public sees otherwise it's not a great surprise we can't get ahead it because we have never fully appreciated the size of the actual positive case population out there.

    • trapper on 03/08/2020 - 13:32

      If you tested a random sample you would get far lower actual positives than false positives, a completely pointless exercise.

      • RichB on 03/08/2020 - 14:30

        You're issue is in semantics of the efficacy of the test itself, not the concept.

        If we randomly tested 100k people in Vic/Melbourne do you really think there would be only as many positive cases, or less, than currently reported?

        I don't know, nor do you or anybody else - that's the point.

        • trapper on 03/08/2020 - 15:43

          A randomly selected person is far less likely to test positive than somebody who is either showing symptoms or is known to have been exposed to somebody with the virus. (ie most of the people currently being tested)

          • RichB on 03/08/2020 - 19:56

            @trapper: You need to test both to get a better measurement of the issue and gain situational awareness; known knowns and known unknowns. The current results are merely a subset of an unknown population. Until that sinks in, Vic will be chasing this well past Dec/January/Feb and wondering where the cases keep coming from. Whocoodanode.

            • trapper on 03/08/2020 - 23:32

              @RichB: There is a small number of contagious people going around undetected and infecting people - this is what community transmission is.

              But testing even large numbers of randomly selected people from the population in general is not going to find these people.

              We are talking a few hundred in a population of millions. Your 100,000 random tests idea might find one or two but it won't make much difference, it's far better to focus testing on people much more likely to be infected.

    • Miss B on 05/08/2020 - 21:33

      This is one of the big reasons why we've moved to stage 4 restrictions. There were too many people who'd tested positive and they didn't know where they got it from. Everyone wears face coverings, because anyone could have COVID. Everyone avoids going out as much as possible. Basically assume anyone could have it and give it to others, even if they are perfectly healthy.

      A common figure that I've seen is that there are about 10 times as many cases than we know about (this is not specific to Australia, or particularly precise, but it gives an idea). Early on we didn't have enough tests to test people without symptoms. Now we have too many people with symptoms and not enough resources to test more than we are. Ideally, yes, you'd randomly test people and test asymptomatic people to see what is happening. We just don't have the capacity because of where things are now. They've done asymptomatic and random testing at times.

  • Jaystea on 03/08/2020 - 11:52

    In your opinion, should HCW (at least in metro sites) be tested routinely and regularly in an attempt to spot potential asymptomatic outbreaks? Especially now that we are seeing much higher numbers of patients on the wards with COVID? Or will this just obfuscate results?

  • centrelink on 03/08/2020 - 12:12

    When I’m running an online business I account for idiot buyers who don’t know what they buy (or: buy something that is incompatible so I will have to pay the return costs), so my questions is when you try to model data, does it include idiocy in it as well? As in expecting people to not follow rules etc…

    • p1 ama on 03/08/2020 - 12:55
      +13

      questions is when you try to model data, does it include idiocy in it as well? As in expecting people to not follow rules etc…

      You've bought into the media beat-up. It's clear from the data that the overwhelming majority of people are following restrictions. Traffic has fallen by over 90% in Melbourne and pedestrian traffic in the CBD has fallen by over 95%. That (quite literally) means that there are 20 times less people around than this time last year.

      The "idiots" you hear about on the news are not relevant because there's so few of them. The problem is that when you have people who still need to go to work and work in environments where they are exposed to others for extended periods of time, there will be spread. The majority of the spread is coming from five sources, (1) aged care, (2) meatworks, (3) hospitals, (4) Al Taqwa college, and (5) family transmissions.

      Only a minority of cases cannot be traced back to a source. Only a minority of those are due to "idiots". So basically "idiots" (as you've defined them) are a small percentage of a small percentage.

      I'll make a political point, but I think this is relatively non-controversial - it's easy to rag on "idiots" and "morons" because it's lazy and simple minded. There's an outbreak? It must be because of those "idiots" and "morons". The moment you say that, you stop thinking about policy because it's someone else's fault. I'm not saying that there aren't people who probably are doing idiotic things, but they are in the overwhelming minority and are not the cause of the situation we're in.

      • TEER3X on 03/08/2020 - 12:58

        Why is Melbourne doing much much worse than Sydney? If you look at traffic data, Melburnians are staying much more put.

        • jv on 03/08/2020 - 13:02
          -6

          Why is Melbourne doing much much worse than Sydney?

          Bad decisions by our leaders.

      • Mokr on 03/08/2020 - 13:39
        +2

        Only a minority of cases cannot be traced back to a source

        5,447 - 1,962 - 3,163

        guess which number is the one we can't trace back to a source?

      • kanmen on 03/08/2020 - 14:01
        -2

        Just off that and slightly veering into politics- do you think the 'idiots' are to blame for us not going into proper lockdowns in terms of having the bare minimum open, such as in China and NZ etc?

        As in, are those opposed to lockdowns impeding on the ability for our state government to enact a full fledged lockdown?

        • MementoMori on 03/08/2020 - 16:17
          -2

          Yes, and thank god.

          You might like China or North Korea.

        • p1 ama on 03/08/2020 - 22:51
          +19

          do you think the 'idiots' are to blame for us not going into proper lockdowns in terms of having the bare minimum open, such as in China and NZ etc?

          I won't comment on China because nobody knows what goes on in China, not even people currently in China.

          In terms of NZ, they're in a very different place to where we are now. Ultimately the very harsh lockdowns in NZ were only for a very short period of time and it was likely that they could have achieved the same results with a much milder lockdown. NZ was in a very similar position to states such as SA and QLD, and SA and QLD are doing very similarly to NZ (minus people returning from other states). As with most things, diminishing returns kicks in pretty hard.

          I'll make a political point as well, which is that you have to do what the evidence shows is working, not just have a circle-jerking contest of who can be the "toughest on the virus" and have the "harshest measures". That's just as dumb as the circle-jerking contest to see who can have the least restrictions. If you actually look at the data (or at least studies which use data) and I really, really strongly suggest that you do, you'll find that countries which have had the most success are NOT countries that have had the harshest lockdowns, but rather, countries that have done well with enforcement of those who are diagnosed positive.

          Guess where we failed. Bingo! Enforcement of those who are diagnosed positive.

          Want to know a real success story? Taiwan. And guess what, no lockdown in Taiwan.

          So what did they do right? https://theconversation.com/what-coronavirus-success-of-taiw…

          (1) They used big data and machine learning to figure out individuals who were most likely to be infected from their movement data and tested them.

          (2) They initiated quarantine of returning travellers very early on (around the same time as Australia).

          (3) Mobile phone tracking

          (4) They actually supported people in quarantine by bringing them supplies daily (not like here, where people in self-isolation are given nothing)).

          (5) There was a digital fence policy for those who tested positive and their home isolation was enforced by tracking software

          Basically, yes, they made the tough decisions. Yes, they invaded the privacy of those who tested positive. But guess what? They're living a relatively normal life right now. Whereas here, we're all in the shits because we couldn't make those tough decisions. Sometimes you have to give up some freedoms to have bigger freedoms. Now we have no freedoms at all.

          Hopefully this addresses your extremely misguided belief that somehow bolting people shut inside their homes like China will somehow resolve the problem.

          • kanmen on 04/08/2020 - 12:12
            +1

            @p1 ama: That's a fair response, I guess when we think of harsh and strict enforcement we think of NZ and China as the best means of solving the issue, which as you say isn't the best approach.

            I think my point at a larger level is this, though:

            Sometimes you have to give up some freedoms to have bigger freedoms. Now we have no freedoms at all.

            I'm wondering whether those people who oppose to having their freedoms imposed on are stopping governments from enacting those ANY tougher or more strict decisions earlier, whether it be harsher lockdowns, wearing masks, mandatory testing, downloading the COVID Safe app, to enforcing restrictions on those who test positive. I mean just a week ago it was clarified that with Stage 3 restrictions people who tested positive for COVID-10 could go outside to exercise?

            There are people who have vehemently opposed to basically any kind of public health policy enacted by our governments, and for whatever reason refuse to follow and I'm wondering if they're the people who are elongating this whole thing out.

            • p1 ama on 04/08/2020 - 20:48
              +3

              @kanmen:

              I guess when we think of harsh and strict enforcement we think of NZ and China as the best means of solving the issue, which as you say isn't the best approach.

              What do you mean by "solving the issue"?

              What do you mean by "strict enforcement"?

              The problem is that when you phrase a problem in vague terms like this, it's difficult to get down to addressing what the policy should be about. New Zealand had 102 confirmed cases when they entered stage 4 lockdowns. We have over 70 times as many in Victoria right now. It's not even remotely a comparable situation.

              Even if we implemented the same strategy back then, we would have had the same issue when there was transmission from inside hotel quarantine to the community.

              I'm wondering whether those people who oppose to having their freedoms imposed on are stopping governments from enacting those ANY tougher or more strict decisions earlier, whether it be harsher lockdowns, wearing masks, mandatory testing, downloading the COVID Safe app, to enforcing restrictions on those who test positive. I mean just a week ago it was clarified that with Stage 3 restrictions people who tested positive for COVID-10 could go outside to exercise?

              I don't know the politics of it. I would have no doubt that all major political parties are running opinion polls to gauge the public support for various lockdown policies.

              There are people who have vehemently opposed to basically any kind of public health policy enacted by our governments, and for whatever reason refuse to follow and I'm wondering if they're the people who are elongating this whole thing out.

              I'm guessing it's easy for you to say because you're comfortable inside your own home, spending time with your family, working in a virtual office environment, laughing in meetings about how silly this situation is. Of course it's easy for you to follow the rules.

              It's harder for someone to follow restrictions when they're quite literally jobless. When they cannot put food on the table, are on the edge of being evicted and having their assets seized, it's hard to stay put and just let that happen. It's a natural reaction.

              Again, and I've made this point many times before, it's not about "the rules", it's about support and aligning incentives correctly. "We help you stay at home now so we can all return back to work sooner."

              • [Deactivated] on 04/08/2020 - 22:14

                @p1 ama:

                it's about support and aligning incentives correctly. "We help you stay at home now so we can all return back to work sooner."

                I agree.

                Just curious, what insights and understandings did you gain from talking to those people? What about the ones that weren't working but were feeding >2 mouths? Their income effectively increased. How did they manage their finances? (I know, but my sample size = 1, so not representative). What did they tell about how they felt about being restricted? Perhaps, "I hate this." Did this influence their behaviour and day-to-day activities?

                Random sampling (not cherry-picking) of responses would be interesting.

                I thought that the Taiwanese government was very effective at managing this pandemic crisis. Clearly.

                What about the attributes of the Taiwanese people? Their [cultural] attitudes? (Potentially shaped by their collective memories of SARS).

                In my layperson's view, I thought that the problem was also poor communication on the part of the government. They were so inconsistent in their message about masks, it ended up becoming a political issue. Or was the order the other way around? Taiwan was consistent from the outset. This is not a systemic issue. The staying at home from work with no support, on the other hand, is a systemic issue.

                Is "attitude" to mask-wearing and limited freedoms a potentially useful input variable? What about "mask-wearing" itself? What would Taiwan say?

                How would/could our government incentivise Western-minded people to download a tracking app with a high download/compliance rate? Moreover, to also use it properly? I saw an elderly lady last week who didn't know how to wear a mask properly and I explained to her the right way to wear it. I saw a couple of younger guys walking the other day in a shopping parking lot. They weren't wearing masks. One of them coughed and didn't cover his mouth.

                Also, I'm finding your post very interesting. I'm not trying to be argumentative; just genuinely interested.

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