I'd like to encourage a wide audience to give their view on Bitcoin's future.
Generally we only hear from people who are very enthusiastic about crypto.
As I've read recently Cryptocurrency mining uses as much power as 88 countries, yet in it's 9 years has found little practical use.
I'd like to hear your viewpoints on its future.
got it the other way round.
Its hardly used to pay things. Mostly used for speculation.
Blockchain on the other hand is being tested for use for things.
Fair enough.
There is no successful blockchain project that I'm aware of. The religious continue to insist that something useful is going to happen. :D
If you want religious zealots, you want to go and visit some of the Ripple (XRP) forums. All they talk about is “omg, banks are gonna use XRP soon and it’s going to go nuts!” And no bank ever does and it never will go nuts.
Cryptocurrencies are ideal to pay for items deemed illegal by government/society, like drugs, child pornography, transferring money to terrorists, extortion, ransoms, etc.
There are other legal uses that crypto is great for, like sending money to Wikileaks or hiding money from government confiscation (Cyprus, Venezuela, etc), or bypassing the US$50k limit for Chinese citizens to send money out of China.
Crypto has many uses. The bad go hand in hand with the good.
Sorry where in there is the good?…
Sorry where in there is the good?…
depends on your perspective.
If you want to do some illegal transactions then crypto is good.
I also disagree with that statement from OP.
Bitcoin has one use case (as per its whitepaper); as online peer-to-peer cash. A digital store of value that doesn't require trust in a third party middleman (e.g. banks). You only need to trust the code and maths behind the system, which is completely open source and transparent.
I'd say it has achieved this use case. I went to Japan last year and only realised at the airport that I had left my Citibank Plus debit card at home. As soon as I touched down I was able to find a buyer on localbitcoins.com who I met at Shibuya station to exchange my bitcoin for Japanese Yen. One scan of a RFID code with my phone, and he happily handed me about $3k AUD worth of paper notes. When I went shopping at Bic Camera (Japanese electronics giant, like a JB Hi-Fi on steroids) they also accepted Bitcoin as payment.
It's a universal digital currency, unrestricted by international borders. It has achieved its use case.
Now whether 1 BTC is worth $1 or $1 million in 5 years, is a completely different matter entirely. Nobody knows.
BitCoin, itself? It's only really held its price due to the "first mover advantage" and being the Crypto that Mum & Dad know (kind of like how parents in the 90's/2000's would often refer to every video game system as "the Nintendo"). It's sole purpose is to be used as a currency/store of value, however transaction times are extraordinarily long which means it "only has one job" and cannot do it well. The "Lightning Network" upgrade has been 'coming soon' for a long time now, and supposedly helps solve the issue with transaction time and cost. Tokens on the Ethereum Network (e.g FunFair) have already achieved a similar system, though, so perhaps the BitCoin developers will make it possible. The problem is that the developer environment is highly fractured, and the hash rate is centralised within China where ASICs are manufactured, so there's the perpetual risk of an attack on the network if enough hash power is collated together.
Other coins serve the purpose of BitCoin but better in some ways, such as Monero which provides much greater privacy in transactions.
The real space to watch is the "Internet of Things". Ethereum is aimed at being an overarching blockchain which runs millions of branching side chains and independent projects (tokens) which provide individual purposes (e.g Gambling, Logistics, Ownership of goods etc). Ethereum, or other projects with the same principles (barring EOS) have the potential to completely revolutionise computing. This will be dependent on the Shasper update which introduces Proof of Stake on the blockchain over Proof of Work (mining); this will increase the network throughput significantly whilst reducing the power usage to a minimal fraction of what it is now. In saying that, Proof of Stake has been 'coming soon' for as long (or longer) as BitCoin's lightning network, and may never come to fruition. There's more hope for Ethereum, though, because there is a core group of developers which work collaboratively in a reasonably democratic manner, which ensures progress is continually being made, instead of petty fights within the BitCoin development team.
IF cryptocurrencies ever become mainstream, BitCoin will be like the Ford Model T; a pioneer of an industry, but not something you would take over a Tesla Model S, for example. The Ford Model T was able to get people from A to B, whilst the Tesla does infinitely more in objectively better ways. Ethereum (or whichever "Internet of Things" that possible eventuates) does so much more than BitCoin that it's not even worth comparing.
IF you're after long term value, then you need to look beyond the mainstream media's "buzzword" that is BitCoin. If it didn't have the First Mover Advantage, it would likely be almost completely irrelevant.
i use to think a..
market sentiment, market volume and just general market sentiment…
im leaning towards c or d
You’re asking people in the wrong country - ask on VenezuelaBargain.com and you’ll get a better view. We are too privileged here to know the true value of crypto currencies.
I think many Aussies foolishly consume US propaganda so they think that socialism destroyed Venezuela's economy instead of the US sanctions designed to cripple the economy. The mainstream US news services are insisting it's socialism and not mentioning the sanctions, it's retarded.
Were you reading between the lines of my comment perhaps? No mention of politics just privilege. Perhaps you have been reading too many political posts. Easy to assume. But when you assume you make an ass out of u and me. :-)
Typed VenezuelaBargain.com - site would not load ;)
This is quite a jump - neither related to the conversation nor in line with the consensus of this situation. That said, i'm no expert but i clearly remember the days of Chavez where he demonised the sort of capitalism that America practiced. And used it as an excuse to nationalise businesses that brought in the tax dollars. Naive me back then was like "i'd sanction his ass" (which they did not if i remember correctly).
Obviously, the issue now is more nuanced, and i realise political posturing is sometimes good politics, even in the US.
Dead… The decline will continue at a steady rate until it comes back down to under $100 and then it will just bounce around there for a while until the next FOMO invention hits and it will plummet to zero.
I know people in my area that remortgaged their house to buy into bitcoin at around the $20,000 mark and it has all but wiped them out.
In the bitcoin speculation game there will definitely be a lot of losers but that is not the proof that bitcoin will be dead. Got my first bitcoin in 2011 and witnessed such comments too many times. So far Bitcoin Declared Dead 350+ times and still counting: https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/
I think bitcoin will always be around, but it’s value will decline to a point where it will be a memory. People live in the hope that it will be back up to the lofty heights of not so long ago, and anyone who thinks that, is just dreaming.
I am happy to be proved wrong. Not that I have any, but I have friends who sunk every last thing they owned into it, and to see them at least get a portion of that back would be nice.
The decline will continue at a steady rate until it comes back down to under $100 and then it will just bounce around there for a while until the next FOMO invention hits and it will plummet to zero.
If you are so sure of that, why don't you short it with 100x leverage? You could make millions.
Because I'm not that smart. And just like everything, it's a gamble. I could bet low and it goes high. I could bet high and it goes low. I am sure there are sites out there that let you short Bitcoin, but I'm not that interested to look it up or to find out how to do it.
I am sure though that there were plenty of people who shorted a shitload of it at $20,000 and are now laughing their arses off that it's sub $5,000.
Dead
Never underestimate people's greed and desire to make a quick buck. If crypto has a pump either through manipulation or FOMO, it could go way up again before it crashes. Ironically this level of 'adoption' also makes it terrible as a currency. What business wants to trade in a currency that can rise or fall by 10%+ in a day?
I bought into the idea a long time ago and I'm a believer - but I also have a finance background and can tell you the prices nowhere near justify the demand or the usage. That said, i sold some of mine along the way for a profit and thankfully managed to pay down some debt. I also still hold quite a few of the basic ones.
This is what I'd say - what people miss about cryptocurrency is not the blockchain but the consensus mechanism. Bitcoin and the cryptocurrencies that came about were the first serious attempts at creating a network of value without a central controlling authority, like a central bank or government. This was the ethos that arose out of despair from the 2008 financial crises. People realised that no matter how much you think you can trust the banks and the government, they don't know much more than the average person who is willing to learn and keep up. And they can (profanity) up badly.
There is still debate in the community on what the best consensus mechanism is, but at least the conversation is being had and real money being put in - which in most cases have the effect of getting people to actually focus and try to bring solutions forward. And obviously lots of smart and dumb speculators into the market.
consensus mechanism
What actual real world use does "consensus" provide tangible advantage to over the other money of the internet (aka 'money')?
Bpop99 is likely referring to the consensus mechanism that’mid used to create and maintain the blockchain. Proof of Work, Proof of Stake, etc
Yup, exactly - each one designed to keep the participants in the network honest, but each one has its drawbacks and can be to some extent gamed
@bpop99: If Ethereum can bring in Proof if Stake as it is proposed with the Sharding + Casper update, then I think it will be the closest thing to a perfect consensus mechanism.
Proof of Work uses far too much power, and runs the risk of centralisation when companies are able to create ASICs or FGPAs which are exponentially more powerful and use a fraction of the power compared to GPU’s. It’s not likely to have a 51% attack, but there’s no major risk for a potential attacker; if it fails, then they still have the hardware, so they can keep mining the coin (or a different one), sell the hardware, or try again.
Proof of Stake means almost no power use, and would require an insane amount of a given coin in order to attempt to attack the network. If we take Ethereum’s current value, which is under 10% of its all time high and assume that, under proof of stake, 30% of coins will be tied up as validator nodes, then a 50% attack would require 15% of the $11 Billion USD market cap. If the attack fails, then the coins would be lost, which is a risk that no one would really be all that willing to take.
Then you have delegated Proof of Stake, which is absolutely laughable. The way EOS pushes their centralised governance, where the 21 “independent” block producers end up buying votes to keep in power, is absolutely laughable. It would be like a blockchain being created by the 21 major financial institutions. In other words, it’s completely redundant.
@Strahany: I'm waiting to see that day come and obviously i'm vested in the success of the ecosystem in general but color me a skeptic. Humans are the flaw in the code and i'm sure someone will try to game it or socially engineer it.
I agree with you on the last paragraph though - since i'm in for the ideals, i've never touched that token. Its like everything we should have learned in the past few decades just went over their heads
If you read the whole sentence - you'll realise I say it in the context of a monetary system that is not controlled by a central bank or a central government. How do you thus govern and manage a financial system that do not have central actors? How do you ensure the actors in the system are truthful? Its something that a lot of theorists have been arguing about for years.
I guess the 2008 financial crises sort of put the impetus on someone to make the move. 10 years later though - its still a very contentious topic even in the crypto space. Also, some real arseholes too….
Dead, but some new and improved cryptocurrency in its place
Crypto will continue, but cryptocurrency will be dead, mainly due it not being to function as a 'currency' if they fluctuate as wildly as bitcoin did. They have to be relatively stable, otherwise many people would not be so willingly to accept it. However, since the upside of crypto is no government intervention, the government cannot stabilise it, thus it would still fluctuate.
Interesting JPMorgan are instituting their own stable Crypto, which is tied to the US$ making it practical while saving their customers fees on trillions of dollers transfered everyday.
I think current crypto models and philosophy are naive and impractical.
If Bitcoin, Ether etc were reengineered into a beneficial form, many people might take it seriously globally, but it sits as an unusable project as I see it, and I hope it becomes a currency for the people. But the banks will probably take over the market unless Crypto wakes up and offers something solid.
Sorry to be blunt but this is how I've seen it since I first read about it.
I remember some people attack me when I said buy bitcoin at 1000$US, then it shoot to 20000$US and then drop to 6000$US in a year, i then continue to shout buy! but nobody believe me. Fyi: bitcoin now at 11000$US. I said BUY!
This is just my mark here, please come back a year from now!
Wtf, 11k USD, when did that happen…
because the world without bitcoin is a monopoly world, and it is lonely and very boring!
@ lnq
Again I ask. How sure are you in giving your certain advice?
Will you legally guarantee, to reimburse everyone in the world if somehow you're wrong?
How about you just give your opinion, and tell people rationally why you tend one way or another.
Nobody knows right?
my advice is for long time, not like put money in and tomorrow you have double. haha
Tell me/us your explanation for your assertion, in long form.
Which crypto would you recommend buying into, and anticipate being useful as currency in peoples lives longterm, and still be valid currency in 20+ years.
How can we buy and use crypto now very cheaply, and where can we spend it to benefit ourselves (eg bargains) in everyday life.
I am looking to be convinced, but it costs too much, it's not very secure, we don't earn interest usually. And I cant use it anywhere to benefit me in ordinary life.
These are some initial arguments, can you try to explain why myself and 7 billion other people should buy and use this alternative money?
bitcoin will reach 100k and 1,000k for sure… but the time it takes is short or long nobody knows, it could take 2 to 4 years based on historical price action of bitcoin.
Sorry, but you're plain and simple an idiot.
You must be under 20yo to think so naively.
ok. remember this, as i said come back 1 year from now. haha
@lnq: Sorry, but you're plain and simple either an idiot, or mentally a bit over the edge.
You must be under 20yo to think so naively.
You might be suffering from a mild form of 'mania', I say this as a kindness. Take care dude.
you should have an option, who knows and who cares?
no one knws and honestly no one cares about other peoples guess. Go to a park, count the ants there, that's my guess, as valid as all others
We are on the verge of a massive transfer of wealth. Banks are scared of it. Governments are scared of it.
The hype around crypto and Bitcoin is increasing. We just had Trump tweet about it. People are simply becoming more aware of alternatives to 'fiat' currency that are will allow for convenience and minimal fee's.
Governments can stop basic human innovation and peoples desired for easier payment system. How this will affect the price, don't know. But there are now many indicators that are pointing bullish that can't be denied.
100K minimum.
Thanks Jammy, who joined 2 hours 24 mins ago, for your valuable contribution (hype).
https://micky.com.au/hacked-up-to-100-crypto-exchanges-world…
Mmmm so secure, it's where I'm putting all my savings.
involve phishing and SIM swap attacks.
Nothing relating to the security of crypto.
I'll have to admit I know very little about crypto / btc.
My main concern is that Bitcoin isn't stable enough to be used as a currency alternative.
Bitcoin appears as if there's nothing proprietary about it, given that there are so many other coins.
If it is a threat to existing currency, governments would either ban it or issue their own form of legal tender as crypto.
You can't just take away a component of monetary policy, which is what is being suggested if Bitcoin is to replace fiat money. Monetary policy is used to smooth out economic cycles, how do you do that with Bitcoin?
This reminds me of the tech bubble, where investors were putting crazy values on stocks that had anything to do with IT. Those valuations had no justification and were completely speculative.
Companies added a dot com to their name and their share price skyrocketed. You could invest in 2c shares and double your money overnight. Sound familiar?
Agree on every point.
I alluded to a more practical alt to Bitcoin previously, that would allow cheap global transfer without the overheads and risks of crypto.
I found such a service which solves part of the problem:
https://transferwise.com/au/borderless/#coverage,
If services like this extend to cover more of peoples common global banking needs, I see bitcoin as unnecessary except for anonimity.
I will definately use the above and still have zero interest in crypto due to its design, security and cost.
So I think global, low fee exchanges like the above, when they eventually cover features like instant transfers will appeal and replace the current interest in the clunky crypto system. That's my 2 cents.
You mean other than paying for things?
Blockchain has found little other use though so far.