Aussie property to ‘crash by 50pc’
How many of wish this happens and how many don’t and why ?
I expect we have people equally distributed across those who wants to own a home and the other bunch who got 5+ houses
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/economy/financial-dooms…
"This time fer sure!"
Later…
"Ah, everything was just as we predicted, except that what we predicted didn't happen"
Apols to Election Night Special: ("…Well, this is largely as I predicted, except that the Silly Party won. …")
This twit always has doom and gloom. It sells his books.
Pro Tip: Look for them in the remainders bin at a book shop near you.
Prices crashed by 50%
so many exclamation marks
CnC Generals : Zero Hour
China will grow LARGER !!!
China: how to get things done today rather than wait next year for 'Democracy' to take action
thats what the game subliminally taught me anyway
good so soon i can afford to buy 2 at the same time.
I will buy anybody's place who is nervous at only 40% off current prices, if they will sell this week.
beat you at 38% off current price
I'm a bit iffy, I don't really read anywhere about why it will crash, just that "it will" at some point in the next few years and talk about bitcoin crashing and China crashing in 2015? Which means other places might? Because bubbles follow bubbles? But Aus won't be as badly?
I don't know, like I'm all for wishful thinking since I'd love to be able to afford a house some day, but it just seems like he's doing all this doomsday talk to sell his book "Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage". Though I really liked the adage of even a clock is right twice a day, I kind of think there might be some better variables to take note on in terms of Aussie Property market.
Interesting read though OP, cheers!
If prices crash it'll probably be because of a large rate rise with people forced to sell, and houses won't be any more affordable than they are now (unless you have a wad of cash to buy it with and don't have to rely on a loan)
Oh thats a shame to hear, I guess I didn't really think it through like that, if I understand right, even if the house price go's down, the rates go up so it will be a similar price.
Shame, there go's my dream of owning land haha. Thanks for letting me know though.
What happens next will SHOCK YOU!!!!
this is good for bitcoin
get ready when all the money flock into bitcoins
Mr Dent predicts Bitcoin to drop by 95%.
If that happens we'll have property deals on OzBargain!
Can't wait
There has to be a reason for the market to drop significantly like that. Houses might be 50% cheaper, but you'll need to be certain your job is stable enough to get you a loan to buy a house
Indeed.
A lot of foreign observers can't get their head around Australia's housing market and the way we will do anything to keep prices high.
It is too high. We will pay dearly for the bubble run up.
But almost certainly it won't be due to a price crash.
Instead, the government will move heaven and earth to prop up house prices and keep them at least relatively stable by crashing interest rates, giving home buyers stamp duty concessions and other bonuses, and lending money to banks etc. Whatever it takes for a short term fix at long term expense.
That this can't be that effective, and will, at best, keep prices more stable at the cost of smashing our currency, making our economy less competitive and "baking in" systemic problems that will linger for a generation is just the price the millennials will have to pay to preserve the baby boomers retirements.
It might feel like another boot in the face, but the millennials have copped the first few of impoverishment via house prices, impoverishment via education fees, impoverishment via job precarity and impoverishment via increased age to access entitlements like the age pension. It seems likely they will cop this too.
It is disgraceful that we have decided to run the country for the rich and the old, but hey.
We shouldn't claim exceptionalism there either, there are other countries and cities that are in the same boat right now, for the same reasons.
ppl say unit will crash 1st before the house does and unit will crash bad due to oversupply, but i don't see much price rise.
i mean over 10+yrs ago 1 bedder in BNE CBD was 300-400k and it still is the same for today.
while house price rose like crazy folds compares to 10+yrs ago.
do you think unit is still a better buy than houses during the pre-crash ?
House prices are a sick joke. I can't wait for a massive correction and for the millenials to finally oust the hippies-come-capitalists who've effectively thieved from their own kids.
I'd recommend holding your breath while you wait for a massive correction. It won't take long!
holding my breath since yr 2000 , while others flippin' millions.
Clickbait is a pejorative term describing web content that is aimed at generating online advertising revenue, especially at the expense of quality or accuracy, relying on sensationalist headlines to attract click-throughs and to encourage forwarding of the material over online social networks. (Wikipedia)
In Australian vernacular it is known as smh.com.au and news.com.au
The usual stupid clickbait that leaves people worse off for reading it due to being misinformed about the world and stressed.
Yeah I've often wondered when it will happen. The US and the UK both crashed to around those levels after GFC #1 but we didn't. And all the signals are there, rampant private debt, no real wage growth, hints of an interest rate rise etc etc. Plenty of other people have shouted out warnings and they weren't trying to sell books. :)
I feel for those in debt but a crash would present great buying opportunities.
The UK didn't really crash, but countries like Ireland, Spain and the US really did. Ireland and the US 'took the medicine' and let people who had invested badly go broke. They have comparatively healthy real estate markets again now. Spain buried a lot of troubled real estate investment, cost itself a squillion euro to prop up its banks long enough to absorb most of the losses, but they have these long term problems that linger because their banking system is a house of cards built upon crap real estate.
The most problematic, I think, is the destruction of employment for young people. You will be able to watch it happen here sooner or later.
And that's after our useless government gave them around 8 BILLION dollars of our tax money to prop up the failed European banksters. (I assume you are up on the bail-in shenanigans from a fortnight ago? http://cecaust.com.au/releases/2018_02_16_Govt_APRA.html ) All up it's not boding well for the financial future.
The CEC aren't very reputable reporters, so I take their analysis with a grain of salt.
That said, a broken clock is right twice a day, and certainly the government would have little hesitation about doing Cyprus style bail-ins if the big 4 banks were threatened.
I'm not in a panic about it, because we are making our own beds as a society - voting for representatives that are pushing policies that will deliver this kind of outcome. I think they genuinely think this is the best course, because they conflate electoral appeal with wisdom.
It is true the party that oversees an economic contraction will be turfed out, but to continually choose short term 'sugar hit' economic policies at the expense of the future (and just a few years in the future, not even decades away) is so reckless and stupid that the electorate deserves what they are given.
@mskeggs: I thoroughly agree, but I think we legitimately lack an alternative option? Can you point me in the direction of a party with sensible long-term economic policies? Certainly neither of the majors, so that leaves independents and minor parties perhaps?
a party with sensible long-term economic policies?
You are trying to be funny aren't you? The majors have a vested interest in getting elected next time round, to keep being a major. The minors don't have the resources to fully understand the economy and develop sensible long term policies.
@Euphemistic: Not at all. I think you've missed the entire point of the above discussion?? In my opinion, both major parties are equally guilty of short-term sugar-hit economic policies. Hence the mess our country is currently in.
@therog1: I guess sarcasm doesn’t translate here. I was hinting you’ll have Buckley’s of finding any such policy.
@Euphemistic: My apologies, I completely missed that! Normally my sarcasm detector is a little better than that… I guess I was just feeling too hopeless! 😌
sounds good except
"of 76 senators, only seven were present when the government rushed the bill to a vote"
Currently 19 senators are required for a quorum otherwise the senate president shall adjourn the Senate to the next sitting day
so 7 senators could not pass a bill
House prices will not crash, they will correct up to say 10% and then stabilize for the next unforeseeable future (5, 10, 20, 30 years).
A lot of, ambiguity in any posts about housing property price crashing, or rising, or stabilising. Not a lot of reasonings behind them. And there are some that predicts doom and gloom, again without reasonings. Sure there will be doom and gloom in the future, but WHY or rather HOW? Not just analogies but specifics is required.
At this point in time, there are steps to ensure prices are cooled down (investor interest rates being increased compared to owner occupier) is an example. Further restrictions in overseas investor through increased tax and stamp duty costs is another.
Combine this with record immigration (ok, let's not get ourselves on a tangent about this topic), especially in Victoria, both from interstate and overseas. Even reports of our population doubling in a short period of time. It's not difficult to see house prices stabilising, if not grow. Ideally this growth should be a gradual increase, as opposed to bitcoin types. The biggest risk would be those in the outer rings of the big cities, where prices will be more sensitive to drops.
With what Australia is doing at the moment, I don't think there will be a price crash. However, the issue if there is an issue elsewhere in the world. Unfortunately, I can't be specific, but anything that can contribute to increased unemployment and especially interest rates, I think that's where it will happen.
As long as we keep immigration and negative gearing, prices will remain high.
Any comment on what's happening now?
If I held negative geared property I would be a seller.
Hard to see how price growth can return any time soon.
And this is happening without interest rate hikes from local funding. Better hope inflation doesn't spiral out of control.
Seems like he's just trying to get free advertising for his book.