Pokemon Prismatic Evolutions Pull Rates

Lcbrbargain on 08/02/2025 - 00:12
Last edited 08/02/2025 - 00:15

Over the last few weeks I was able to buy several packs of Prismatic Evolutions at places like EB Games, Kmart, or Big W. In total I got:
8 Binder Collections
12 Poster Collections
13 Tech sticker packs
10 mini tins.
Altogether 135 booster packs. I opened all of them. That’s almost equivalent to 4 booster boxes.

Now according to the pull rate stats I should be getting:
1 Special Illustration Rare per 45 packs (~3)
1 Hyper rare per 80 packs (~2)
1 Ultra rare per 13 packs (~10)
1 Master Ball per 20 packs (~7)
1 ACE per 21 packs (~6)
Altogether I should be getting around 28 of these cards with 135 packs.

Here is what I got:
0 Special Illustration Rares
2 Hyper rares
4 Ultra Rares
4 ACE
8 Master ball
That’s 18 pulls, much less than what I should be getting, and all of them cheap, no good pulls. Only 1 card is worth over $20.
What a massive disappointment. It feels like they use CT scanners when they import these boxes to filter out the boxes with the good cards. Only master ball cards have a distribution as expected, they can probably not be distinguished well with a CT.

What’s your experience? Equally bad or did you get any good pulls? From which boxes? Which stores? Any god packs?

At least I “only” paid around RRP for most boxes and not the massively inflated prices on Amazon. But still, a huge loss. My recommendation is to sell them and not open them.

Gaming Card Game Pokémon Trading Card Game

Comments

  • 7ekn00 on 08/02/2025 - 00:20
    +12

    There is no "should be getting" with random crap purchases like that ;) The point is, it is RANDOM … you could easily buy all that and get ZERO … it's random …

    Me thinks you need more education on probabilities!! It reminds me of an old friend that thought every flip of a coin increased the chance of the opposite result occurring (to the point he lost $100,000 in a casino using "a system" where he would count three black / red then bet on the opposite, tripling up each time he lost!)

    My recommendation is to sell them and not open them.

    No sh!t Sherlock … put your money into a casino, lotto, scammers, hackers, pyramid schemes, crypto, it's all the same risk profile ;)

  • cyrax83 on 08/02/2025 - 00:24

    Bad luck is bad luck

  • Pelicannn on 08/02/2025 - 00:39
    +2

    Lol sorry, are you buying pokemon cards hoping to hit a big card worth $1000? Spent x and all you got is a $20 card? That’s just gambling except with worse returns.

    Anyone buying pokemon cards to make money right now is pretty much buying at the top of a very serious bull run and peak buy out. Crazy that people are paying that much for some cards out of a brand new set that has already been guaranteed a reprint.

    If you’re buying because you actually want to collect said cards, better off buying singles these days.

  • cyrax83 on 08/02/2025 - 00:39
    +2

    Check his posts. He literally complains about bad pull rates in every post

  • cbrbargain on 08/02/2025 - 01:17
    -4

    I probably know about probabilities a bit more than some.

    I buy them to collect them not to sell them. Buying singles for PE is too expensive. The whole set is worth around USD 8000.

    So let’s say someone uses a CT scanner to check what cards are contained in a box. For Prismatic Evolutions with so many expensive cards I think it would be worth the cost. With your attitude you would never find out if this is happening or not. You think it’s tough luck, randomness.
    Well it might be if you open a few packs, but if you open many packs there is a system. Then the probability violation can kick in. If you roll a dice 10000 times and there is no 6 then this is not bad luck or randomness. It’s that something is wrong with the dice. The probability that something is wrong with the dice increases every time you roll it and don’t get a 6.

    That’s why I’m curious if any of you got good pulls, which boxes and which shop. So instead of making fun of me, how about you tell me if you got any good pulls.
    Thanks. :)

    • Pelicannn on 08/02/2025 - 07:14
      +1

      I still don’t think people are using a CT scanner on pokemon cards lol.

      Win some, lose most. That’s the way a lot of things go. Pokerev and DPM opened a bulk before they got an eeveelution SIR pull

    • freefall101 on 08/02/2025 - 17:24

      The probability that something is wrong with the dice increases every time you roll it and don’t get a 6.

      That isn't probability, probability is about how likely an event is to occur. Something being wrong with the dice is a yes or no question, not a probability.

      What you're thinking about is sample data to prove a hypothesis. You have a hypothesis - the cards are rigged - and as has been pointed out to you you have an extremely small set of data that you're making the assumption on.

      • cbrbargain on 08/02/2025 - 19:51

        That’s why I’m asking others, but so far no one said they got good pulls…

    • deeevan on 08/02/2025 - 22:49

      I'd expect someone who knows a bit more about probability than some to understand the Monte Carlo fallacy.

      • cbrbargain on 09/02/2025 - 10:10

        MC fallacy would be assuming that not getting a SIR in opening so many packs increases the chance of getting one in the next pack, when it doesn’t.
        That’s not what I’m saying.. I’m saying that not getting one in so many packs might be an indication that something is wrong, that there is a bias.

        But in any case, the MC fallacy applies in cases where the outcome is independent of previous outcomes, like for a coin flip. This is not the case for Pokemon packs. Due to the large number of packs you might consider it as independent, but technically it’s not. There should be say 1 billion SIR cards in 50 billion packs. And if you opened 49 billion packs and only got 100 million SIR, then you should be getting 900 million SIR in the remaining 1 billion packs. But since this is extremely unlikely, I’m saying that it is more likely that someone rigged the packs and the packs don’t contain 1 SIR per 50 packs on average. Or maybe someone uses a CT scanner to identify the 1 billion packs with SIR in it and takes them out of circulation.

        Looking at reddit, it seems I’m not the only one who has very low SIR pull rates, while people seem to have no issue at all with hyper rare pull rates. That to me indicates that something might be wrong with SIR pull rates.

  • cbrbargain on 08/02/2025 - 03:27
    -1

    By the way, I don’t complain about bad pull rates all the time. For example 151 and Crown Zenith have excellent pull rates. And they are both non-standard sets, just like PE. So the bad pull rates of PE do seem very unusual to me. 135 packs without a SIR when on average there is one every 45 packs is unusual. Say we look at 45000 packs in Australia. In the US they have on average 1000 SIRs, what if we in Australia only have 300 and no god packs? At what stage would you believe something is wrong?

    Also, I don’t think anyone doubts that something like Fusion Strike has very bad pull rates. And apparently there was something wrong with Fusion Strike.

  • djones145 on 08/02/2025 - 06:39
    +1

    just bad luck. my son insane luck though
    151 opened 40 oacks, he got a god pack
    crown zenith the gold grantina, obsidian flame the gold charizard. and more.
    we usually open half a dozen of each series.

    japanese is the way to go way better drops and most boxes have a SAR.

    • cbrbargain on 08/02/2025 - 12:06

      As I was saying, 151 and crown zenith have excellent pull rates. But was your son lucky with PE too?

      • djones145 on 09/02/2025 - 08:19

        been ok
        japanese got sar ( ok one, mapped) one booster box
        opened around 10 packets so far, umbreon pokeball and some random ex

        put off with the prices

  • jaxlikesgrog on 08/02/2025 - 07:39

    How do you even get them? I feel if you get them at RRP you already have some good luck.

    Any stratergy to actually buy? I watch and wait for these and the journey preorders, so far nothing?

    • cbrbargain on 08/02/2025 - 12:07

      I just monitored availability and got “lucky”. Turned out to be not so lucky though.

  • brendanm on 08/02/2025 - 08:03
    +4

    Today you learnt about probability. How much did you spend on this?

    • cbrbargain on 08/02/2025 - 12:10

      Around $10 per pack on average, which is definitely on the expensive side. But I thought the packs would be worth more on average than packs from other sets. Turned out they were not.

      • brendanm on 08/02/2025 - 12:44

        Good lord near $1400? Did you do this to try and sell them for more than you paid?

        • cbrbargain on 08/02/2025 - 16:18
          +1

          Believe it or not, it’s supposedly a bargain…

          • brendanm on 08/02/2025 - 17:07
            +1

            @cbrbargain: But what do you do with them?

          • S92WTB on 09/02/2025 - 20:45

            @cbrbargain: only in the same way that spending $1400 on lotto to come out with $20 could be thought of as a bargain - all those chances to get $100M

            Just think of all the fun and anticipation you had opening the packs. That is what you are paying for.

  • Screamingeagle on 08/02/2025 - 09:29

    Hey thanks for your post. It reminded me that I have about 25 booster packs from old decks that are unopened that I have been meaning to sell.

    • timthetoolman on 08/02/2025 - 14:52
      +1

      Sell them to OP, the probability is that he's due for a rare one

      • cbrbargain on 08/02/2025 - 16:18

        Sorry I’m broke

  • zonra on 08/02/2025 - 11:27
    +1

    Same for me, been buying Lotto all my life and never hit Jack pot. Vendors are probably xraying the tickets.

    • cbrbargain on 08/02/2025 - 12:12

      That’s like rolling a dice with a million sides a thousand times. Very different from getting a good pull with Pokemon cards.

      • zonra on 08/02/2025 - 14:30

        But but, a 10% probability doesn’t guarantee that you’ll get one within 10 purchases.
        It doesn’t matter how many you’ve bought previously, a 10% probability still applies to the next purchase.

        • cbrbargain on 08/02/2025 - 16:16

          I know, but if you do it 100 times or 1000 times and you still don’t get it with a 10% probability, then the probability that something is wrong increases.
          Can we agree on that?

          If you roll a dice 100 or 1000 times and you don’t get a six, then that’s not bad luck. It’s a high chance that something is wrong with the dice.

  • Purp on 08/02/2025 - 15:03

    Must be nice to not have a job and trawl the stores for pokemon card restocks.

    • 2pro4sho on 08/02/2025 - 15:46

      I know this is a joke but that sounds great.

    • cbrbargain on 08/02/2025 - 16:12
      -1

      I wish, but it’s all online. Plus I was on leave.

    • ladylarunai on 08/02/2025 - 20:12

      They all sold out in my area by the time I finished work 7-3

      • Purp on 09/02/2025 - 11:54
        +1

        The stores I spoke to after the recent release had long lines at opening in the morning of release. The sad thing EB told me is when they sold out of the new releases people just bought anything Pokémon TCG they could and left nothing on the shelf Pokémon TCG related. The Big W employee I usually speak to about Pokémon was shocked at the people running through the store pushing each other to get there first but the idiots were running to the wrong area as they are kept somewhere different to other Big W stores in my area (not the service desk). If they were regulars and not just scalpers they would have known that.

        Also since EBGames opens later than Big W, when they were done ransacking everything from the big W they all went and lined up at EB waiting to pick that clean with a line around the corner of 50-100 people, this all before 9am on a Friday morning and this is a store 50kms outside of Sydney so I can imagine how bad it was everywhere else.

        No chance for anyone with a job or kids and It's a really shitty situation for any kids that were just starting or wanting to get started in Pokémon it's being ruined by idiot adults.

        • cbrbargain on 09/02/2025 - 13:54

          All the stores I went to told me they sold out in 15-30 minutes, but I didn’t know it was that crazy.

          A Kmart nearby had stock according to their website. Went there in the evening, they said it’s somewhere in the back on the pallets but they are not taking them out. At night after they closed it still said available, and then at 7am it was suddenly unavailable, when the store only opened at 8am. My guess is some employees just divide them all among themselves and sell them on eBay.

          Except for 2 mini tins from Big W, I ordered all my packs online by the way.

          • Purp on 09/02/2025 - 14:32

            @cbrbargain: Are you constantly refreshing the pages 24/7? They sell out instantly online if you ever try and buy, kmart will let you order even if you don't have stock so they basically just hold your money for a week and then refund it.

            • ladylarunai on 09/02/2025 - 14:54
              -1

              @Purp: Most people can't use their work hours to constantly refresh an internet page

            • cbrbargain on 09/02/2025 - 16:22
              +1

              @Purp: No, but a few times a day. I got three orders in at Kmart, one got canceled, two fulfilled. Similar for eb games, some orders get cancelled some make it. And as I mentioned, I was on leave, no need to make any assumptions.

            • 7bobas on 10/02/2025 - 16:56

              @Purp: Unsure if I will be of help, Target is restocking ETB's and Binder Collections, ETB's were stocked late last week, Binder Collections were restocked either Friday or today depending on the load factors, some stores got theirs today instead of Friday due to stocktake purposes. You can try keeping an eye on Target in store if you live near one, my store got a case of ETB's in on Thursday, and the system reckons we got 6 Binder Collections in on Friday but we didn't so they would've been on todays load, the stock is not updating online. I suggest calling your store and possibly asking if you were trying to get some, probably all gone by now but my store was imposing a 2 per person limit, inclusive of staff as well. ETB Binder.

  • Gunnar on 08/02/2025 - 18:31

    OP I know you’re cut about what happened but there’s no need to do this:
    https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/melbourne-mornings/po…

  • jaxlikesgrog on 10/02/2025 - 16:37

    What’s the best way to get notified, got 3 kids that froth these but haven’t been able to get anything this year.

    How to get in on preorders? Or notifications. Saw bigw have taken down the journey listings now

    • 2pro4sho on 10/02/2025 - 20:56
      -1

      There's a few discord groups with a small monthly fees and you get instantly notified. Pm for details

  • cbrbargain on 11/02/2025 - 13:13
    +1

    Ok, now that everyone had the opportunity to make fun of me and to downvote me (why exactly?), I note that no one said they pulled any good cards here in Australia!
    Does that mean my suspicion might be correct?

    I should probably ask the scalpers on eBay, they seem to have bought a lot of them. One seller is selling like ten master sets, but I guess most of the others didn’t open their boxes.

    Instead, I did some more experiments to check if pull rates are equally bad overseas and bought a few packs from Amazon UK at twice RRP. Guess what, in the 18 packs I opened, 17 of them were crap, but one of them was a semi-god pack with 3 SIRs, not the Eevee evolutions unfortunately.

    So now, does that confirm my hypothesis that something is wrong with the pull rates in Australia and the importer here might use a CT scanner? Or is it just probability striking back and I got the 3 SIRs I would expect to get from around 150 packs….?

    • cyrax83 on 12/02/2025 - 00:50

      If you think an importer is CT Scanning prismatic products coming into the country you are delusional

      • GardenGnome on 13/02/2025 - 10:32
        +1

        I'm no expert on Pokémon but CT scanning and other shenanigans are happening in the card world. The OP is not entirely wrong and shouldn't be dismissed outright. It's not 100% and large chain retail stores are less likely, but you have to trust the importer and with the huge amount of money to be made its natural people try and scam the system.

        I imagine the pros have CT scan, precision digital scales, resealing machines etc…

        https://www.si.com/collectibles/news/from-sealed-to-revealed…

        Shady practices with collectible cards go way back to the mid 90's when local sports cards shops use to let 'big spenders/buyers' feel the packs for die cuts. And that was when packs cost $5 and Jordan rookie card was $800 AU.

        No doubt with packs costing $1000's now there are some less than honest importers/sellers/wholesalers out there.

        And I'll just add there is rampant fraud on eBay and always has been, that is where most of garbage comes from. From outright fakes, recut boarders on cards to fake inserted jersey patches to boxes/packs being opened and resealed and resold. Much like anything eBay its garbage and just don't support scalpers, they only exist because people support the bullshit reseller model.

        • cbrbargain on 13/02/2025 - 12:13
          +1

          Thanks for that.

          I open a lot of Pokémon cards and I can tell how many good pulls you normally get and I can tell when it doesn’t feel right.
          Prismatic Evolutions doesn’t feel right.

          Think about it, a god pack is worth over $8000, an Umbreon alone is $3000, and that’s ungraded. With these amounts it’s worth it to scan the packs. Say I’m a reseller and I get allocated 2000 ETBs. Scanning them, taking out the boxes with god packs and Umbreons is easy, and no one will ever find out, because it’s “random”.

          It might not have been worth it for previous sets, (Surging Sparks was the first one where the chase card was instantly worth almost $1000 and I still didn’t get it despite opening heaps of packs.), but for PE it is definitely worth it. Another factor with PE is that they are so hard to get. So people can’t buy enough to get a feeling if the pull rates feel right or not.

          • cyrax83 on 13/02/2025 - 13:33
            +1

            @cbrbargain: It makes sense if someone is sending a $20,000 Base Set Booster Box to the US to get CT-Scanned. That's why vintage is very risky. No one is CT-Scanning a $100 Prismatic ETB when its $50-$75 to scan 1 PACK. Let alone an entire ETB of 9 packs. The math's ain't mathing.

            • GardenGnome on 13/02/2025 - 15:10

              @cyrax83: Your logic makes sense but when you have a god pack worth $8K as the OP says the incentive is there to cheat the system. As I said since collectible cards become a commodity there has always been cheaters/scammers and downright basic criminal behavior in the hobby.

              Now they might not be scanning them but if it doesn't feel right then it's usually true. It could be anything from an inside job at the producer (I assume they now have detailed electronic records matching box/patch serial numbers on what each box/pack holds value wise) to the wholesaler getting a hold of batch/box information to people working out a system that tells people what each box 'probably' contains.

              And before people talk about production errors I would with 99% certainty say they have quality control methods over the production of these boxes and test the output before releasing a new set/box.

            • cbrbargain on 13/02/2025 - 16:21
              +1

              @cyrax83: Have you ever seen a CT scanner? They can do full body scans. I’m sure they can scan say 2x4x20= 160 ETB in one go and see if any of them contains a god pack.
              I think the return on investment is way better than buying x boxes.

              • cbrbargain on 13/02/2025 - 16:57
                +1

                @cbrbargain: Oh and by the way, on average there is one Umbreon in 160 ETB. So with one scan that costs $50-70, I can find a $3000 card on average. That sounds like a pretty good business!

  • PokeBargains on 11/02/2025 - 17:28

    Oh no, Oh no, You should have kept it sealed

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