Solar Quote - Unsure of it, Help Me Decide

I recently put a 100kw solar system on my business, its preformed well(see below) so I got a quote for home.

First full billing cycle with solar running
18 Oct 24 - 17 Jan 25
$4881.14

Solar got switched on during this bill cycle so not including this in my calculations.
18 Jul 24 - 17 Oct 24
$8957.61

Last 4 bills without solar
18 Apr 24 - 17 Jul 24
$11,498.29
18 Jan 24 - 17 Apr 24
$13,666.63
18 Oct 23 - 17 Jan 24
$14,698.41
18 Jul 23 - 17 Oct 23
$12,745.93

Brings our average(non solar) bill to $13,152.31. Now granted we are in summer and this will be our best production for solar, we saved $8271.17 on this first billing cycle.

The system cost us $85,000. Going off the saving of $8271.17 we can expect a ROI in 2.5-3.5 years.

Now this brings me to home. 5 bedroom home, 2 adults, 4 ungrateful teenage kids that leave lights and doors & windows open while aircon is on. 2 aircons, 3 fridges & pool equipment, hot water is gas.

All 4 kids go to school so not home during the day. We run our business so not often home during the day so most of our consumption is at night.

Last 4 bills without solar
31 Jul 24 - 27 Oct 24
$1232.03
1 May 24 - 30 Jul 24
$1092.29
30 Jan 24 - 30 Apr 24
$993.23
30 Oct 23 - 29 Jan 24
$1159.95

Giving us a average bill of $1,119.37. I have been quoted on a off grid system as I don't see the point of putting it on without batteries due to our lifestyle: 1 x 10kw sungrow hybrid inverter, 30x jinko 440w blacked out panels, 19.6 kw Sungrow battery for $24500

If we can wipe out our bill completely we would be looking at ROI in 5.4 years. Yes we would probably sell back to the grid but at 5c/kw I find it almost negligible. Life expectancy on the batteries is 7-10 years so you could no sooner pay off the system and be up for replacing the batteries.

Just curious to someone else opinion or experiences?

Comments

  • you got a swimming pool or anything else that consumes heaps during solar generating hours?
    assume you run a/c / heating when at home on weekends?

    • Yes we have the pool but it generally runs 6am-10am then 6pm-10pm so only during part of daylight.

      And yes AC is generally on at night/overnight.

  • +2

    Life expectancy on the batteries is 7-10 years

    Where did you get this from? Is this the warranty period, or did you research this to get the MTBF?
    I would have thought the battery would generally last longer than this…

    • The warranty period is 10 years according to the Sungrow datasheet.
      These are LiFePO4 Prismatic Cell, and based on what I have heard, the cells should last up to 30 years. The BMS on the otherhand is what is likely to fail. I am assuming the BMS could be replaced.
      I am sure some of the OzBargain experts can weigh in on this.

      • The batteries may last 30 years but thier capacity will start declining from around 7-8 years.

        If you own a smart phone you should know about declining capacity of rechargeable batteries. .

    • I asked the installer “What’s the life expectancy on the batteries?” And they responded with “7-10years” I copied and pasted our messages.

      From my research they have 10 year warranty so he possibly could have gotten that confused.

  • You spent like 50k a year on electric?

    • +1

      Commercial bill

    • +1

      Correct, commerical bill as Stewardo said.

  • Quote seems ballpark depending on location, roof, house height, other installation difficulties. I assume that's with the solar+battery rebate/s for your state?

    With teenage kids wouldn't be looking at spending $25k to save $4.4 per year. Your expected usage would drop.
    To be honest your bills are pretty reasonable for what you are running, so maybe it would drop less than I'd expect. The current maths isnt that bad.

    | I don't see the point of putting it on without batteries due to our lifestyle
    The reason would be to install batteries in a couple of years when the technology develops. Battery cell prices are dropping at an alarming rate (its a bit slower for the translation into battery packs). Offgrid systems have other benefits if you're in a area with frequent power outages

    I would recommend:
    look at a system that you can retrofit a battery,
    Swap to electric hot water when the gas system fails
    Swap out any other gas appliances when they fail.
    Move as much load to the day as you can (smart tech, precool house with aircon if you can)
    solar would allow for a heatpump pool heater

    • Correct that it is already with rebates.

      Location Wollongong, NSW. Single story.

      • Correction to my above: Your expected usage would drop….. within the payback period if they move out.

        Seems like you have the capital and know how to calculate your ROI. Check your assumptions thought such as bill will not be $0 as mentioned by beedub016 + check system generation during winter to make sure its enough to cover your total daily usage. From the system size and bill I think you'll be fine unless you have a shading but the installers will often have a calculator, else there are other online ones e.g. https://solarcalculator.sunspot.org.au/ is from UNSW + PV institute Australia.

        I'd still get the payback period for the panels only (assume 0c import rather than the 5c to be safe, and that you're covering a 1/3 of your usage (~10kWh / day?)

        Hope you've gotten 3 quotes and are happy with the installer that quoted above. If you're also happy with the numbers - why not? The sooner you get it on, the more of the summer generation you'll get.

        There are couple big Aussie Solar websites (not installers, but industry adjacent) for background information if interested e.g. https://www.solarquotes.com.au/panels/cost/

        Last notes:
        Make sure you don't need any work on your roof before you stick $25k worth of equipment on top
        Make sure your battery output can match the expected peak power draw (or close enough). You can end up still importing when you've got a charged battery if the discharge rate can't match the usage.

  • +1

    I have been quoted on a off grid system as I don't see the point of putting it on without batteries due to our lifestyle:

    Do you mean actually off grid (ie premises with absolutely no grid connection), or just a system capable of operating when there is a grid outage?

    Two very different things

    • Just a system capable as being off grid.

      • +1

        Problem will be electricity providers are massively onto this and this is why so much of your bill is connection and service fees rather than usage fees. Just worth checking what cost you're left with for an unused connection, if you haven't as yet.

  • +1

    Even with your nominated usage I can see a large generation surplus that will get fed into batteries and/or the grid.
    You need to find out how much the system will generate and how much will be fed into a battery. Bear in mind what you get paid for feed-in to the grid may eventually be nothing (as is the case in Victoria).
    We have a similar household, with a large 18kWh ducted air-con unit, and only a 6kWh system. Our average daily net usage for 2024 was 28kWh. Feed-in to the grid for the year was 1,400kWh.
    I reckon a smaller system for OP would suit.

  • Get some broken down data of your usage if you can (especially if you have a smart metre), by the looks of it your bills might be going up in winter and your generation will be a lot lower. Give this site a shot at how much you'll generated in winter. For Wollongong and north facing panels, you'll generate about 40% less in the middle of winter than in summer (which is better than Melbourne at least, it's about 60% less).

    On the face of it, that system is massive overkill.

  • If you look carefully, the retailer in your area may be offering $0.085 per KWH between 10:00-3:00PM.
    Look carefully, they are hard to find. and, in Victorian Distributor JEMEMA doesn't offer it, but Jemema is Chinese owned, so that's a reason
    In fact, most of our electricity distributors are Chinese owned. Thank you governments of all colours. You have sold us out.
    That's a price that may change your calculations, and amount of battery
    It is a Trial offer but has been around for a long time, and it only applies to Off-Peak
    Jemema mostly replaced the old Off Peak with Controlled Load, so none in our area qualify, although people about 1K away from me, do.

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