Would You Install a Battery Now, and What Price Would You Be Looking?

LMES on 30/11/2024 - 13:47
Last edited 30/11/2024 - 13:47

Hello Ozs,

I am not trying to sell anything here, just need your helps:

I have been quoting my customers with the same price ($14500) with NSW battery rebate:

Jinko + Fronius GEN24 Plus (Hybrid 10kw) + BYD 11kwh Battery,
Jinko + Sigenergy 6kw inverter + Sigenergy 16kwh,

Many customers argue it is not worth the investment even NSW battery rebate,

We all know it is a game of return, so should I just focus on Solar only systems now?

Or should I just quote afforable/cheap batteries package? (there are so many, I can even do $8900 for 10kwh+12kw Solar)

Wanna know your thoughts, thanks a lot

Home & Garden Solar Energy System

Comments

  • nedski on 30/11/2024 - 14:29
    +1

    Its up to the customer if they believe a battery is worth it. What I have been pointing out to people that are getting solar (we bought solar with a 10kwh battery a few years ago) is that if you are banking on the feed-in tariff to offset some of the costs, you cant rely on that as the price of FIT is dropping. The best value is self consumption so if you can get a battery where its cheap at all other times except peak and the battery gets through peak, thats a huge saving.

    How much solar are you putting on the roof with these packages?

    • MES on 30/11/2024 - 14:34

      Thanks, yea self-consumption is always the best,

      I normally put on max PV power as the inverter can handle:

      15kw Jinko + Fronius GEN24 Plus (Hybrid 10kw) + BYD 11kwh Battery,
      12kw Jinko + Sigenergy 6kw inverter + Sigenergy 16kwh

      • mattmel96 on 01/12/2024 - 08:18

        @MES have the regulations changed? When I was researching my solar installation a few years ago, you could only install PV at 133% of the inverter rating, whereas your options are 150% and 200%.

        I recall that there was talk of all the batteries from earlier model EVs (that no longer met range needs) being recycled to be cheap home batteries. Was that just a pipe dream? They are still too expensive for me as we have adapted energy use so that we maximise self-consumption. Yes we do still draw from the grid in the evenings, but the payback period of that cost to a battery is still way too long for us to be viable.

        • brad1-8tsi on 01/12/2024 - 09:07

          If a battery is involved you can go beyond the 133% limit.

    • HeWhoKnows on 01/12/2024 - 08:33
      -5

      Ausgrid has now applied a 2-way tarrif.
      See here:
      https://www.ausgrid.com.au/Connections/Solar-and-batteries/S…

      Custoners are actually charged for feed-in during peak feed-in times since the grid doesnt need the extra power.
      Thats a big push towards the use of batteries !

      i.e. Instead of feed-in, they now want to encourage own battery charging and self reliance when the solar stops working as the sun goes down, if not, almost all the time.

      This includes charging your EV during the day on your own solar power. (if that works for you)

      Makes sense to me
      Just need to change the way of thinking for customers

  • MrThing on 30/11/2024 - 15:05
    +7

    any solar installer these days who uses FIT to sell a system should be an immediate red flag / steer clear.

    • Crownie on 30/11/2024 - 15:44

      There is def a market for FIT battery systems but its not really for a low-end install. Someone whom wants a 25k+ panel install in their $2,000,000+ occupied home will see the value in a battery backup.
      Someone looking to take advantage of Govt. rebates to incentivize their switch to solar wants a "bargain." Those customers don't require battery backups and FITs to profit from their system.
      The TV ads make Solar installs as cheap as $4k after rebates.
      A $15k system with battery isn't the product for them.

      • Bruceflix on 30/11/2024 - 15:47
        +1

        That battery money would save more if left in the offset account .

        • Crownie on 30/11/2024 - 15:49

          True.

    • GnarlyKnuckles on 01/12/2024 - 04:35

      'any solar installer these days who uses FIT to sell a system should be an immediate red flag / steer clear.'

      Yes, absolutely this.

      'Feed-in tariffs' (FIT) have now become essentially worthless in Australia, so they are not even worth considering when 'doing the maths' to work out projected installation pay-off times (i.e., how many years will it take for this financial outlay to start saving me money?); unless you are planning to install a massive solar system of some sort.

      • brad1-8tsi on 01/12/2024 - 09:31

        I'm about to fit batteries to the 5kW solar PV I fitted in May 2023 and last week started a spreadsheet to track returns to see if my payback guesstimate was/is somewhere near correct.

        Over 17 months I've saved 180kWh per month at an average cost of 35c/kWh and exported an average of 471kWh/month at 11c/kWh. So far I've covered $1400 of the original $4900 outlay without taking into account any of the Peak Demand Rewards I've received or the $75/qtr Federal handout.
        My original payback estimate was ~6 years because I've only got 5.4kW of panels due to restricted roof space but it appears I'll start making "profit" on the Solar PV in May 2027, IOW 4 years.

        My FIT averages $52/month and my direct energy use saves $63/month so the 2 items so its a~ 45:55 ratio and makes FIT still somewhat relevant.

        edit: I'm fully aware that if I'd put $4900 into shares the ROI would be better but it sparks joy to not pay power bills.

    • bobwokeup on 01/12/2024 - 11:33

      Why is that? What is FIT?

      • anzacpaul on 10/12/2024 - 11:45

        Feed-in Tarriff.

  • HamBoi69 on 30/11/2024 - 15:06

    Sounds like you’re one step away from, ‘Would you like fries with your battery?’ Bold move, captain of innovation!

  • Kramo on 30/11/2024 - 15:07
    +1

    When I did all the calcs using my historical data, the extra money for the battery just wasn't worth it. If comparing to nothing at all, great, payoff period <10 years, but compared to just the solar panels and how expensive the battery was, was going to be around 20 years for the crossover when the battery is worth more, and I'm not planning my energy requirements that far out.

    • GnarlyKnuckles on 01/12/2024 - 04:47
      +2

      Re everything Kramo has said above:

      Me too.

  • SBOB on 30/11/2024 - 15:36
    -1

    Shouldn't you, as the educated experienced and qualified solar installer, be able to work out the true cost/benefit of a solar or solar and battery system , without our help?

    • MES on 30/11/2024 - 16:39

      While we have a solid understanding of the cost/benefit of solar and battery systems,

      I always try to find the one best fit for everyone,

      but seems different people have their own unique needs and budget.

  • Bruceflix on 30/11/2024 - 15:45
    +3

    Within the next 12 months we will see EVs being certified to feed back into the house and grid. Then it will be worth it.

      • Caped Baldy on 30/11/2024 - 16:34
        +5

        You shouldn't even compare ev batteries to e scooter batteries.

      • pegaxs on 30/11/2024 - 16:48
        +3

        Whatever you are smoking, snorting or injecting, I suggest you either give up, or lower your dosage.

        Seen too many e-waste scooters blow up from dodgy Chinese batteries.

        How do you compare a cheap, nasty e-scooter to a car? One has no standards and the other is tied up in so much red safety tape

        When EVs become cheaper than CEs

        They literally are. The new MG4 is cheaper than a Corolla Hybrid. The BYD Atto 3 is about the same price as a similarly spec’d SUV’s. The new Shark is cheaper than what the Narava is in the Navara’s base trim spec, but the Shark comes with (fake/vegan) leather interior, carpet floors, 15" screen and built in nav and android auto and apple car play, power everything… the list goes on.

        The constant charging degrades the battery quickly.

        Well, that is blatantly false and may have been true of early battery technology, but most current EV battery tech is expected to outlast the vehicle and upwards of 300,000+km.

        Then your at the mercy of the manufacturer in battery replacement and that will run 1/6th of these cheap-EVs cost.

        You do realise that using an ICE vehicle wears out the engine, yeah? And if/when it needs replacing it can often cost way in excess of what the vehicle is worth?

        • Crownie on 01/12/2024 - 04:57

          Whatever you are smoking, snorting or injecting, I suggest you either give up, or lower your dosage.

          Bloody rude.
          This is why I give up on OzBargain.
          I posted deals and yet people whined when prices changed.
          I comment and keyboard warriors tell me to just "stop typing because you're smoking, snorting or injecting, I suggest you either give up, or lower your dosage."

          You act like an absolute f-wit when someone made a slight error.
          Take your semantics and shove them.

          • Caped Baldy on 02/12/2024 - 14:25

            @Crownie:

            You act like an absolute f-wit when someone made a slight error.

            It wasn't a slight error though. It was an ignorant uninformed comment to generate misinformation.

            Proponents of EVs have been dealing with non-sense comments like that for ages so I understand why he got fired up.

        • cloudy on 01/12/2024 - 08:07

          One has no standards and the other is tied up in so much red safety tape

          Interesting, what kind of regulations are associated with car batteries in Australia? Genuinely curious

    • freefall101 on 30/11/2024 - 16:31
      +1

      This.

      MG4 for $32k + $10k bidirectional charger (that was the cost of the early ones, hopefully cheaper when it hits the market) = $42k for a 51kwh battery plus a free car.

      Home batteries have barely moved in price the past few years, there's massive scope for them to decrease. Someone just needs to hit that perfect supply/demand point where they can ramp up supply, get the cost per unit right down and it will make financial sense for everyone.

      • MES on 30/11/2024 - 16:44

        Yes, bidirectional chargers are now available for even under 10k,

        but the issue is that there are currently no cars that support V2X functionality.

        • pegaxs on 30/11/2024 - 17:03

          There are a few cars that support V2L, but almost none in our market that support V2G. The issue is that V2L equipped vehicles are usually limited to whatever the internal AC charger can output, and for most of them, it is limited to 15a. It wont be until we have DC V2G and invertors that can handle the bi-directional stuff that there will be any uptake in this…

          I see a lot of idiots on forums at the moment "prepping" their house for V2G only to find out their car doesnt support it and only supports V2L so they are stuck with nothing more than a 15a generator port to run the lights in the house and that's about it.

          • freefall101 on 30/11/2024 - 18:12

            @pegaxs: Supposedly a lot of cars are able to do it, it's more a compliance thing. Ambibox post regularly about cars they've been able to get working (for example, the atto 3)

            • GordonD on 30/11/2024 - 18:45

              @freefall101:

              it's more a compliance thing

              As a manufacturer, what was the point of setting your car up to do it when the CEC wouldn't allow it.

              The question now is when the CEC finally allows it, will all the EVs sold that were able to do it, but the feature was disabled, be allowed and able to do it. Or will manufacturers say if you want that you've got to buy another new one.

          • n3ck3ntry8bort0rgasm on 30/11/2024 - 19:42

            @pegaxs:

            I see a lot of idiots on forums at the moment "prepping" their house for V2G only to find out their car doesnt support it and only supports V2L so they are stuck with nothing more than a 15a generator port to run the lights in the house and that's about it.

            right thanks. so it's not as simple as buying a 2nd hand Tesla and using it to power your house like some other past comments suggested. they were going on quite confidently about how it was cheaper per kW than a solar battery.

            I read somewhere Tesla is also on the fence about even allowing their cars to be used as batteries. I think "coming 2025" was the official statement (I assume V2G?). but haven't they been moving the goal for 100% self driving for years? can you give some the idea of using Tesla as a house battery for someone dumb like me? I have someone I know who is thinking of solar battery (they already have panels).

            • GordonD on 30/11/2024 - 20:18

              @n3ck3ntry8bort0rgasm: V2G has been possible for years. The big obstacle in Australia was that the CEC chose as a matter of policy to not type-approve inverters that would do it. But you could still do it by the alternative expensive process of end-users buying inverters that would do it, and getting one-off approval to use them.

              But you could only do it if you had a car that the manufacturer chose to implement its side of the necessary electronics. Specifically certain Japanese cars. No-one else bothered doing that because there was no point. The dubious benefit was that you got the possibility of V2G, the price was you got a CHAdeMO charging connector instead of the CCS standard one everyone else used.

              With regard to Teslas it has been claimed some people have hacked them to do V2G, and that it doesn't require a hardware upgrade, just software. At this point it is pure speculation what decision Tesla will make regarding the cars it has already sold, or will sell, once the CEC starts type-approving inverters that do it.

      • GordonD on 30/11/2024 - 18:42
        -1

        Home batteries have barely moved in price the past few years

        That tells you that the fall in the price of EVs is for reasons other than the oft-predicted fall in the price of batteries. If the price of batteries was going down, the price of home batteries would be going down. Clearly the price of EVs is falling for reasons other than lower cost of manufacture. And when the manufacturers are losing money because they have to sell the product for less than it costs to manufacture, that can't continue. And its going to very painful for EV buyers, which they are already unable to sell enough of, if/when that ends.

  • AustriaBargain on 30/11/2024 - 18:31

    Could consider a battery like a UPS too. Blackouts are annoying, everything I like to do involves electricity.

    • MES on 30/11/2024 - 18:35

      Yes,

      that is also a main point to install a battery

  • Cam imbesi on 01/12/2024 - 08:28
    -2

    I hope you know there will be a new Solar tax in NSW starting in July so you'd absolutely want a battery to limit your export to the grid. https://www.smartenergyanswers.com.au/blog/navigating-nsw-ne…

  • FimpBARGAIN on 01/12/2024 - 09:01
    -2

    I think that people with as many panels on the roof as possible are in for a shock in the near future, the government is being pretty open at this point that for peak times they will be charging homeowners to feed excess solar in.
    When tarrifs go negative I would want to be in a position where you are the local go-to battery system guy, there will be more work than you can handle!

    Fwiw in the new year I'm looking to put on a smaller battery (8-9kwh) with a modest (6kw) of panels. And not take up the option to join a VPP.
    Are you recommending your customers take up that 2nd part of the battery incentives, and do you think they understand what that means?

  • brad1-8tsi on 01/12/2024 - 10:13

    I put a deposit on batteries 2 months ago. Installation is next week.

    In hindsight, given the actions of the (large and supposedly reputable) installer wanting more money for extra cabling, extra brackets and withholding part of the installation rebate I wouldn't go ahead.

    Is it true that the warranty conditions associated with the NSW government rebate require a canopy, awning or weatherproof cover above a Tesla PW2?

    I purchased battery because the payback come under 10 years and I believe will be a lot less as power prices rise, FITs become a feed-in cost when the grid is overwhelmed with excess power. My theory is that with these changes to the grid the payback period will reduce to 6-7 years.

    Possibly / probably I'm wrong but I don't mind gambling on these things.

    You need to sell your customers on a vision of the future rather than the cold figures.
    PS: What's your price on 2x PW2 supplied & installed after NSW rebates

  • Chewy2221 on 01/12/2024 - 10:16

    I have thought of buying Ev, battery & additional solar panels. I would only be interested if the Ev is capable of powering my house and/or exporting to the grid during expensive peak periods, and recharge the Ev battery after midnight. I understand that this functionality will be available soon. This would be a game changer for me.

  • Tigercjn on 01/12/2024 - 11:27

    We are seeing a lot of electricity retailers offering free power during peak times, either to charge a EV or charge a battery to use it later or give back to them at a premium price when they want it.

  • bobwokeup on 01/12/2024 - 11:31

    Well we have an option to buy a $3000 battery which I really want to do but my wife thinks the price will come down even more. I did the calculations and it’s only going to take us 2 to 3 years to pay off and we plan to be here longer, so for me it’s a no brainer.

  • saltypete on 01/12/2024 - 11:32

    I have a battery and solar. It pays - but only because i got very substansial rebates for it.
    My battery worked out to around $600/kWh. The generally accepted figure a few years ago was $500/kWh.
    So if you are selling a battery for $14k, unless its 28 kWh its not worh it. The early adopters are thin on the ground now so i dont see much of a market for you at that price.
    Battery production costs are coming down
    really fast and Gov appears to have mandated V2L/H.
    Id be looking at 2 way chargers for the next few years.

  • Tommyaka on 01/12/2024 - 12:22

    My panels + battery were installed back in April this year. I've annualised the return on investment and it's coming out to be 26.8%. If all goes well it should pay itself off in under 4 years.

    You need to do your own calculations to figure out what is the best option for your circumstances.

    System:
    - 12.32 kW panels
    - 10 kW SolarEdge battery

    • cloudy on 03/12/2024 - 06:55

      Did you have a spreadsheet or something you used to calculate this? That u can share?

  • VW-Kombi on 01/12/2024 - 19:52
    +1

    I still get the 49c feed in tariff until mid 2026. No bills still. No point in looking at batteries until then for me. Plus I only have 6kw panels and 5kw inverter, that is 11 years old. Still get close to 5kw when in good sun. I would like in the future 20+ KW batteries and I don’t think I would charge that each day. Panel tech can be almost twice now per same roof size so may have to replace the lot post 2026 sometime. EV night rate of 8c is a reasonable saving as I have tech on 24/7 and EV top up. No petrol bills anymore. In a good place currently.

  • crazyguy on 12/12/2024 - 13:21
    -1

    Supply and install Powerwall3 for 6-8K i will buy; If Lithium bear market continues or sustains the battery prices may fall-off

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