Inflation Has Ticked up in The Last Couple of Months

HeWhoKnows on 24/11/2024 - 18:04
Last edited 24/11/2024 - 19:55

SUMMARY:
Anyone paying the grocery and household bills will have noticed the sudden, sharp uplift in prices in the last couple of months.
I've paid anywhere from 6% more to 43% more in the last couple of months for every day grocery items and my home building insurance (just renewed) has increased by 30%.

Are we seeing a sharp uptick in inflation again?
Is the RBA correct in holding interest rates?

WORRYING EVIDENCE:

Here are some of my observations during October and November:…
The calculated percentage increases shown are based on the latest price increases.

Aldi 4 x 100g ham was $4.99 in 2023, then up to $5.19 as at October 2024 and now $5.49 (+6%)
(Same 4 x 100g pack of ham in Coles is $7.00 (Price gouging), up from about $5.50 last year)
Aldi Choc Coat ice cream sticks $3.69 as at Oct 2024, and now $4.00 (+8%)
Coles 1.8kg beef lasagna and bolognaise bake was $10 in 2023 up to $11 early 2024 and now $12.50 (+13%)
Woolworths 1Kg Hillview cheese down to $8.70 as at Oct 2024, but now $9.90 (+14%)
Coles /Woolworths BBQ chicken was $10 in 2023 then up to $11 early 2024 and now $12.50 (+14%)
Aldi FineFare 180g Chocolate was $1.99 in 2023, then $2.59 as at Oct 2024 and now $2.99 (+15%)
Woolworths 750g muesli varieties $3.00 as at Oct 2024, now up to $3.50 (+17%)
Home brand Long life Soy milk was $1.15 as at Oct 2024. Now $1.35 (+17%)
Home brand Long life lactose free milk was $1.59 as at Oct 2024, now $1.89 (+19%)
Coles, Woolworths, Aldi house brand 200g instant coffee were $3.70 as at Oct 2024. Now $4.50 (+22%)
Coles 1.2kg Chicken schnitzels were $10.50 early 2024. Now $13.00 (+24%)
Coles 200g Belgian Chocolate was $2.80 early 2024. Now $4.00 (+43%)
My building insurance was $2,579 in 2023. Now $3,359 (+30%)

Feel free to add more examples in the comments as my grocery list is very simple

But to be fair some items have come down in price (slightly) recently:
2L house brand milk was $3.10 as at Oct 2024. Now $3.00 (-3%)
Coles 1.2kg Chicken burgers were $10.50 in 2023, then up to $12.50 early 2024. Now back to $11 (-9%)
800g Coleslaw, pasta salad and potato salad are back to $5.49 in Aldi. Woolworths just dropped their price from $7.00 down to $6.00 for the same items. But Coles is still price gouging at $7.00.

Generally from what I see, inflation for groceries and insurance has ticked up strongly in the last month or two.
It’s plain to see for anyone that does the regular grocery shopping
Let’s see if this is reflected in the latest inflation figures.

Poll Options expired

  • 396
    I think Inflation is still too high and possibly increasing again as this evidence suggests
  • 56
    I believe the government when they claim that Inflation has slowed down recently
  • 75
    I have no faith in government's published inflation fligures at all
Financial

Comments

    • Ghost47 on 26/11/2024 - 20:26

      I think saying "no one is stressed" isn't quite accurate, there are definitely people who are stressed out there, it's just that they're the ones who are the most vulnerable and so fall off the ladder first and heck, they don't even need to have a mortgage in the first place (think of people living in lower socioeconomic suburbs). Why would food banks be experiencing an increase in demand for instance?

      As an aside, the unemployment figure might be 4.1% or whatever ("low" unemployment) but it doesn't factor in the increase in gig work in this country and part time work. People can be counted as employed even if they only work an hour a week which is misrepresentative IMO, especially when the unemployment figure is often used as an indicator of our economic prosperity.

      • Drakesy on 26/11/2024 - 23:46

        Oh yeah
        Underemployment is a huggggee factor nowadays.

        But honestly something needs to be done about the tax system and the multitude of breaks given to housing investors

        Really is a joke when its cheaper to buy and rent a house than own one.

      • HeWhoKnows on 15/12/2024 - 20:51

        LATEST FIGURES RELEASED
        Unemploymernt down below 4% again.
        Core Inflation (without the temporary govenment subsidies) is still at 3.5%

        With this latest data, concensus is:
        Dont expect a drop in interest rates any time soon

  • Trying2SaveABuck on 26/11/2024 - 10:56

    The data will come out i think they are expecting CPI to tick up slightly? but we will see

    • HeWhoKnows on 15/12/2024 - 20:51

      LATEST FIGURES RELEASED
      Unemploymernt down below 4% again.
      Core Inflation (without the temporary govenment subsidies) is still at 3.5%

      With this latest data, concensus is:
      Dont expect a drop in interest rates any time soon

      But based on current "observations" agree inflation appears to have ticked up again

      • Trying2SaveABuck on 15/12/2024 - 20:53
        +1

        I personally dont want a IR cut

        But i dont want an economic that isnsolely proped up by migration

        • HeWhoKnows on 15/12/2024 - 20:56
          +1

          Todays news
          Immigration has overshoot by 50,000 again!

  • interlocal on 26/11/2024 - 11:21

    idk, mangoes are much cheaper than 2 months before!

    • ihbh on 26/11/2024 - 13:25

      Seasonal factors don't count. Try another couple of months and check the price then!

      • HeWhoKnows on 15/12/2024 - 20:57

        Mangoes down to $1.99 at Aldi this week

  • mrdean on 26/11/2024 - 11:38
    +1

    Noticed today, Aldi unsalted butter block $6.99. From memory used to be $6.39 or $6.49 (& less during the last 5 years).
    Nudie 2L 21 orange juice at Coles $9.50. From memory used to be $8.50 (& less during the last 5 years).

  • movieman on 26/11/2024 - 14:40
    +4

    I used to buy Aldi Cottage Cheese 500g I think.
    $2.99.

    Now it's $4.99. So I stopped buying it.

    • gviddy on 26/11/2024 - 16:34
      +3

      This is what I like to see. People actively helping control inflation. I ended my Netflix when the prices went up, and decided I do not need Disney anymore either. Imagine the price drop on items if people did indeed decide to stop supporting higher prices.

      • HeWhoKnows on 15/12/2024 - 20:59
        +1

        Cost increases to Streaming apps, whilst contributing to inflation, are just a money grab.

        There are plenty of free streaming options
        Apart from Tubi, all the TV stations have some great streaming movies and programs

  • Ghost47 on 26/11/2024 - 20:09
    +3

    Maybe if we had less people in the country, there would be less aggregate demand for absolutely everything (housing, healthcare, transport, food, water, electricity, land, space etc.) and everyone would have a bigger slice of the pie, so any inflation that does exist would be easily shrugged off. I guess that would be racist though.

    Then again if I find a nice fishing hole that's quiet, peaceful and chocked full of fish I wouldn't go around telling every Tom, Dick and Harry about it.

    • cloudy on 26/11/2024 - 21:28
      +1

      You would have less aggregate supply as well don't forget. So only considering one side of the equation ain't gonna solve the problem, makes a good news.com.au headline though

      • meowbert on 28/11/2024 - 08:56

        Ah yes, less aggregate supply of… housing… hospitals… schools… rail.. because they… adjust up or down at the whim on the market right?

        I think you're conflating Mars Bars with national infrastructure.

        • cloudy on 28/11/2024 - 10:37

          Last time I checked making mars bars wasn’t on the labour shortage list, but I could be wrong.

  • cloudy on 26/11/2024 - 21:29
    +2

    Wife tells me Oreo has gone up crazy, something like half price was $1 now its $1.40. Stop eating junk i told her.

    • mustang87401 on 26/11/2024 - 22:08
      +1

      Gotta keep em in check.

  • jaimex2 on 27/11/2024 - 12:43
    +2

    Only 6 months till the next election… hang in there.

    Lets fill that senate up with independents!

  • pformag on 27/11/2024 - 16:28

    imported product pricing will keep going up thanks to the upcoming tariffs war

    AUD down 2.15% in the last month.
    USD Shipping spot rates are up 5-10% from 2 weeks ago. Rates are up 38% over the last 3 months.

    Current rates are close to 4600 USD / 40ft - China to Australia. Same rate from March/April was $1200 USD.

    • greatlamp on 28/11/2024 - 07:44

      Would those spot rates include shipping through the Suez? There's several issues with global shipping which don't affect Australia much

      • pformag on 28/11/2024 - 07:50
        +1

        The Suez affects Australia with imports from Europe. Most vessels are going via Africa, which adds 2 weeks onto the journey. This also increased rates, but this has been going for over a year now. Most of the rate issues is congestion in the transhipment ports. Singapore and Malaysia.

        Shipping lines are also gouging Australia, our rates are increasing, while other routes are decreasing.

  • imurgod on 27/11/2024 - 16:52
    +1

    People voted Labor and got what they voted for.

  • SpicyStew on 27/11/2024 - 19:11
    -1

    if you put in the same effort to "make" money as you do to "save" money it wouldn't be as much of a problem for you

  • localhost on 27/11/2024 - 19:38

    Even the Powerball went UP, now its $100M. Two months ago was $3m…. :)

  • Drakesy on 27/11/2024 - 19:45
    +2

    Turns out op was right

    How many times can the RBA cook it. Its obvious we need to go higher.

    • greatlamp on 28/11/2024 - 07:57

      In a country that makes nothing and imports everything, can interest rates actually stop inflation?

      • eek on 28/11/2024 - 10:58

        Sometimes I do wonder how Australia has been so fortunate given we don't really innovate or produce anything. We dig minerals, export some livestock and gas, but that seems to be about it?

        Maybe the luck is running out and everyone is starting to feel it.

  • Hopalong Gosling on 28/11/2024 - 12:05
    +1

    Corpos raise prices, you blame government? 🤨
    Corpos lower prices, praise the corpos? 🤨

    Lower inflation means prices are rising more slowly, not that prices will go down… 🙄

  • Jaspa7 on 28/11/2024 - 14:59

    Objective evidence:
    https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_result.jsp?cou…

    Then compare with the exact same page snapshotted (I've chosen May 21 here):
    https://web.archive.org/web/20240521101757/https://www.numbe…

    This points to about a 0.3% reduction in inflation.

    Of course, it definitely feels like the opposite

  • KaTst3R on 28/11/2024 - 15:34

    I noticed the large increase in 100g x 4 pack ham. Used to be $4.99. Now it is more than $8.

  • d86 on 28/11/2024 - 17:59

    Woolworths Orange Juice 3L - $6.50

  • suti1 on 28/11/2024 - 19:49

    Tim tams.

    4.50 earlier this year, now 6.00. 33.3% increase. (It's the Same increase in % when bought at half price).

    Is it colesworth or Arnotts doing the gouging though?

  • danger0u5 on 11/12/2024 - 16:29

    Home brand soy milk just went up again from $1.35 to $2.00! That's a 73% increase since October (when it was $1.15).

    • HeWhoKnows on 15/12/2024 - 21:03

      Seriously????

      I just checked

      OMG you are so correct.

      thats truely MAD!!!!!

      Was still $1.35 at Aldi on Friday night.

      Home brand Lactose free milk still $1.90 at this stage (Was $1.60 in early November)

  • cloudy on 11/12/2024 - 21:19
    +1

    woolies and coles nappies, $11.50 - $12 recently.

    Home branded tissues was $1.70 - $2.00 also.

  • JIMB0 on 12/12/2024 - 09:43

    I heard the service stations are going to start charging to air up tyres. They said it's for inflation.

  • joshash on 13/12/2024 - 10:49
    +1

    Data pro here. Yeah small sample size but core inflation ticked up in line with OP's theory. Never underestimate your own ability to harvest data !

    • HeWhoKnows on 15/12/2024 - 21:00

      What we see today isnt relfected in the figures yet.
      Wait for the next ones to be released.

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