So looks like a middle east $hit Sandwich is being made. Terrible for everyone directly involved. But there is always a financial back story to wars.
How do people see this financially impacting us?
Traditionally risk assets & risk currencies dumped (ie. AUD), so AUD down.
Oil supply issues obvious, so petrol / energy prices up. Flow through effects (goods pricing, travel costs up).
What shares are likely to benefit, and which will fall?
Is this a chatGPT question?
Does that mean Israel will probably have difficulty exporting diamonds?
And hence diamond supply will decrease?
Hence diamond price will increase?
Diamond prices (and supply) are artificially controlled, so whether or not any war acutally has an impact they will probably raise the price because plebs gonna pay
Russia has been offically out of the diamonds game since the Ukrainian invasion.
Hasn't really had any major effect.
Likely a blip on the radar unless it goes out of control and sanctions etc etc.
Don't forget we have lab grown diamonds, China produces more than half of the global synthetic diamonds with India doing a quarter. It's vastly more consistent in a lab as you can imagine. It's a staple of medical, scientific, and industrial applications, but if you're talking about jewellery, it's any industry's wet dream that it's as "valuable" as it is. As Sinnerator said supply is cleverly controlled.
P.s. Apologies I totally lied about Teva, clearly it's been way too long since my mate's dad worked there, manufacturing out of Israel is in single digit % these days, can't trust any randos on the interwebs these days!
Diamonds aren't even remotely rare. Just someone said it's more valuable than quartz…so it is!
And hence diamond supply will decrease?
Hence diamond price will increase?
Yes, buy diamonds now.
all growth shares I'd imagine (tech) as risk assets suffer. higher energy costs would contribute to inflationary pressures
Give me your top 5 to drop hard?
What shares are likely to benefit
Shahed Aviation Industries
This the Irondome manufacturer?
Aussie bogans will need to rush to the petrol station to fill up their monster trucks before the oil price rises.
Hasn't the market already priced this in and made the changes so you're asking way too late?
At end of day though noone knows which way it'll go so a bit of a redundant question.
ASX 500 currently trading at Jan/ Feb value….so…sort of!
Hence, what should I be looking for that is cheap that has brought the ASX down?
everything is on sale. red day is Bullish signal.
any information regarding war in middle east is already priced in by people who know a lot more than you and can build better trading algorithms
Currently just into the buy the rumour phase, some sell the news wiggle room?
Not going to double over night..but I'll take 5% in 2 weeks (over 5% in a year in a bank).
…ie. nothing flying out of Israel yet…that being said..I'm sure the US reapers are on their way….again.
I wouldn't rely on ChatGPT but was curious, here is the response;
The escalating tensions in the Middle East are likely to have significant financial implications globally. Here's how it could impact various assets:
Risk Assets & Currencies:
Risk assets like stocks are likely to see a sell-off as investors become more risk-averse
Risk currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD) are expected to weaken as investors flock to safe-haven assets
Commodities:
Oil prices are expected to rise due to potential supply disruptions, as Iran is a major oil producer
Higher oil prices will lead to increased petrol and energy costs.
Gold prices are likely to rise as investors seek safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty
Stocks:
Energy and gold mining stocks could benefit from higher commodity prices
Travel and transportation stocks may suffer due to higher fuel costs and potential travel disruptions
Indian stocks with exposure to Israel, such as Adani Ports, Sun Pharma, TCS, Infosys, etc., could see volatility
Inflation & Interest Rates:
Higher oil prices could further fuel global inflation, complicating central banks' efforts to tame rising prices
This may lead to central banks delaying potential interest rate cuts, which could negatively impact stock markets
Overall, the escalation in the Middle East is likely to increase market volatility and weigh on risk assets in the near term. Investors will be closely monitoring developments and adjusting their portfolios accordingly.
Cheers…think it copied my heading for the first part!
Double dip / spiral for us with the Aud value falling and rates going up to battle inflationary pressure…dropping the Aud…
OP you are way too late.
Anyone in the know (i.e. Ozb platinum members) had already locked their position in well before now.
As per elgrande's comments, you are missing the boat if you ask the question now.
Things like Droneshield (DRO) are big beneficiaries however they have had a big run up already.
Yeah…Not looking to short, or long anything. Not smart enough for that. Just looking for some good share buys (ideally high dividend stock). Been a hard working pleb for too long. Can't beat em…time to join em
Just looking for some good share buys (ideally high dividend stock)
. Been a hard working pleb for too long. Can't beat em…time to join em
Please report back in one year when your portfolio is down 50%.
That's my crypto strategy…
Thinking banks with decent PE ratios.
Couple of tech mining start-ups
Lockheed Martin gon go up.
Oil
Why is AUD a risk currency? Aren't mineral imports of huge and growing Asian countries stable enough support?
Why aren't we charging about 70% like Norway does? It's the exact same minerals, so it's not like all he mining companies would pull out of Australia if we started selling them for effectively 65%. 35% of billions is still billions.
US is the world "safe haven" currency…
It is currently worth negative trillions $$.
..and AUD is valued less than that!!
The answer…nuclear weapons. You got em, and have proven you'll drop em…you have value.
We have no 'safety net' bombs.
Yes, USD is perceived so. But I am suspecting that is a mistaken one and AUD can actually be safer?
I believe US will soon collapse financially or sooner if take China or Russia militarily, while Aus will be somewhat isolated from either military or financial collapse of US?
If that happens…the US will send Australia in first.
Cough… submarines.. cough Pine Gap… cough
A number of them have been running for a while.
I guess is comes down to: do you expect things to get better or worse in the medium term?
Droneshield have been running for a while, but their revenue has also been taking off over the last few years (2018: $1.2M, 2019: $3.6M, 2020: $5.6M, 2021: $10.6M, 2022: $16.9M, 2023: $55.1M, 1Q2024: $16.5M).
Droneshield
Electro Optic Systems nearly went belly up, but is currently doing a turn around. Where they go from here, well you will have to do your own research.
Electro Optic Systems
Cheers. Those two have been running hot…maybe too hot.
Both forming traditional reversal patterns.. I think.
Natural gas for both, copper and some other ores. Israel is one of the biggest exporter of diamonds (5th or 6th I can't remember), and also lots of pharmaceuticals, Teva (top 20) predominantly manufactures out of Israel. Not as highly ranked as diamonds but certainly not insignificant.