Tesla Powerwall 2 - AGL VPP - Thoughts?

Lookingforabargain on 12/04/2024 - 10:00

I am considering getting a Tesla Powerwall 2 through the AGL VPP program in Melbourne. I have been unsure about getting a battery for a couple of years now, but AGL is offering a $1500 incentive ($500 bonus offer and $1000 for VPP 5-year prorated). The total cost of installation will be less than $14,000. I would like to know if anyone is already on VPP and has any feedback or thoughts about it.

Recently, I got a 13.2kWh solar system, two Tesla cars, and a 17KW HVAC system (replacing my gas heating and evaporative cooling system). My average energy bill is around $650 per quarter (pre-solar). I'm now on the Powercore network, and my Solar FiT is down to $0.049c. I mostly work from home, and my cars are charged via solar during the day.

I'm considering the Tesla Powerwall because of its Tesla ecosystem integration aspect. Since getting solar, I have been able to charge my cars for free with the Tesla charger talking to my solar inverter and charging when there is excess solar. The Tesla Powerwall will integrate and auto-charge my cars during the day, further reducing my power bill. The Solar FiT generates no real returns anymore and is useless.

Home & Garden Solar Battery Tesla Inc

Comments

  • soan papdi on 12/04/2024 - 10:04
    +1

    17KW HVAC system (replacing my gas heating and evaporative cooling system)

    Sidebar: Mind sharing how much this costed? I'm trying to do this in a few years, want a real world number. Thanks.

    • Lookingforabargain on 12/04/2024 - 12:53
      +2

      Around $14k out of pocket ($4k paid by VIC energy efficiency scheme) up including 4 zones with a smart zone controller and up to 12 outlets - more than enough to cover my double-storey home.

      • burgains on 13/04/2024 - 16:31

        is the VIC rebate available to high income households? We didnt proceed with installing a battery at our place because the battery rebate was only available to households with less than 180k taxable income. I thought all these kind of rebates would have similar criteria. If it doesnt then thats great!

        Also, how did they replace the ductwork for your double storey house? I thought that wouldnt have been doable for the lower floor unless the existing ductwork was used

  • verio on 12/04/2024 - 10:06
    +4

    I would first look at how much excess solar you actually have with two EVs at home. Look at your feed-in numbers and see if that number is greater than 13.5kWh (Powerwall capacity) every day. If you have an aircon always on (which might not be the case but sometimes people get crazy with solar) and you have both cars getting charged, you might not have a lot of extra energy to spare (plus your inverter is most likely 10kW anyway).

  • cashless on 12/04/2024 - 10:09
    +2

    Just get a battery and be done with it. With your FIT at less than 5c/kWh then you're effectively giving away money.
    In the end it was the feed-in rip-off that persuaded me, even though the payback time for the battery was as much as 10 years in my case.
    My thinking was "if I am harvesting all that solar power, why should I give it away for next to nothing"
    It still gives me personal satisfaction 3 years later, that I get to keep what I have "made".

      • zathras on 12/04/2024 - 13:43
        +9

        If the sun mistakenly delivers its solar energy to his house and doesn't send a courier to collect it within 12 months, I think he can claim ownership of the solar power.

        • jv on 12/04/2024 - 13:44
          -7

          If the sun mistakenly delivers its solar energy to his house

          Nope, he is taking something that does not belong to him.

          Same with air, rain, etc….

          • zathras on 12/04/2024 - 14:07
            +1

            @jv: OK, I'm sure he'll agree to happily hand back all the solar energy when the sun asks nicely.

    • burningrage on 12/04/2024 - 10:25
      +5

      With that size of solar system, battery would be very useful for you so I agree with Cashless. Get on with it. $14k is not to bad. I paid $12k 2 years ago.

      As for the AGL VPP, I can share some insight with you about this.

      With the AGL VPP, in exchange of $1,500 (I think I got $1k back then), they can control your Tesla Powerwall charging behaviour sometimes in your favour, sometimes in THEIR favour. Let me explain.

      Two months ago VIC had a huge blackout and although I was saved by the battery, AGL instigated a "Grid Service" intervention which means they decided to suck from your battery dry (they attempted to drain mine from 100% to 20%) and pay you pittance 4.9c (in VIC) per Kwh and you were forced to turn off everything because Tesla automatically cut off the drain when the battery went below 20%.

      There was an article about this in The Australian where the author was the "victim" of this VPP behaviour, also instigated by VPP but with Ember Energy (CBA).

      Also, at times, AGL may decide to drain your energy (usually around really hot day in Summer) by selling your battery energy to the grid (and again, you can't control this) and recently, I was finding that my Solar Generation (during the day) was redirected from into battery to grid so my battery wasn't charging.

      Then you have a choice to use Tesla's self powered mode (which means no grid charging) or Tesla's Time Based Control. With the latter, AGL will decide while you are sleeping based on your tariff, how much AGL would direct Tesla Powerwall to draw power from the grid. What that means in summer for example is that at its worst, AGL can load up your battery to 100% at say 18c per Kwh off peak while you are sleeping and during the day when the sun comes out (particularly in summer), the sun has nowhere to go to store your sun-generated power and Tesla would have no choice but to sell it to the grid at pittance 4.9c per Kwh.

      So yes, forced purchase at 18c and resell back at 4.9c. Pretty smart way to outstmart those people with battery and solar without losing too much revenue huh?

      Once you get the hang of it, there are ways to outsmart them but you'll still be limited in how you can outsmart them.

      Don't get me wrong, VPP can be useful particularly in winter but in summer, at least with AGL, you will be screwed.

      As soon as my VPP contract finishes in 2 years, I am out of AGL. The only thing I like about AGL is the Peak Reward Scheme.

      • Lookingforabargain on 12/04/2024 - 12:47
        -1

        Thanks mate. this is good info. I will lookup the article as well.

        AGL VPP is restricted to max $50 per year - from AGL T&C "VPP Services on Your AGL electricity bill will not exceed $50 (inclusive of GST) over each 12 months measured from the VPP Services Commencement Date and each anniversary of that date"

        I understand that they will have control over the battery and can discharge if required + while they discharge they will also pay me .049c /kWh FiT.

        Now I agree that sometimes this discharge might happen during the peak hour rates after sunset and I will be forced to replenish from Grid - however, $1k + FiT rate up front should cover any additional costs over the 5yr VPP term.

        BTW, AGL VPP is no longer 5yr contract - I can exit anytime I like - just have to pay them a leftover VPP $1k bonus back. For example, AGL Discount is $1,000, exiting the agreement after 12 months would result in an exit fee of = $1,000 – ($1,000 x (12/60) = $1,000 - $200 = $800.

        • burningrage on 12/04/2024 - 13:33
          +1

          This is the article. It's paywalled so you probably need a way to gatecrash it.

          https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/technology/tesla-t…

          Ideally, you would not want them to take over your battery discharge pattern especially during the "grid service" event I mentioned before because you would need it yourself. But if you need to know how to "override" this takeover, let me know and I'll show you how.

          • Lookingforabargain on 12/04/2024 - 13:35

            @burningrage: how do you outsmart them mate?

            • zathras on 12/04/2024 - 13:49

              @Lookingforabargain: I'm guessing you would turn off the mains breaker to isolate your house from the grid during a grid wide outage?

            • JIMB0 on 12/04/2024 - 13:54

              @Lookingforabargain: I'd imagine flicking the main breaker and going into island mode would work.

            • redfox1200 on 12/04/2024 - 13:55

              @Lookingforabargain: turn off your main switch

            • burningrage on 12/04/2024 - 14:24
              +1

              @Lookingforabargain: In an extreme situation like above,

              Tesla has an "Off-Grid" mode. Activate it and it will cause your house to be disconnected to the grid for some time. This will stop AGL from draining your battery. The Australian author who fell victim to this didn't know this feature exists.

              If there is a blackout, this mode is kept on for as long as the grid is off. If the grid is still alive, AGL I think will turn off the "Off-Grid" mode it after 30 minutes in this mode. All you have to do is to switch is on again until they stop draining your battery.

              There is a drawback with this. Your solar panel would be temporarily reset and depending on how long it takes to reset, you'd lose like 10-15mins of generation. Another thing is, in a blackout, only switches that are connected to your Powerwall will be kept on, the rest will turn off. In a non-blackout situation, all lights remain on but you'd be disconnected from the grid temporarily.

              In a normal situation,

              Depending on season, I would turn off the "Time Based Control" feature and purely go by "Self-Powered mode" especially with a large solar system like yours (mine only 4.5kwh with effective generation 3.8kwh max in summer, even lower in Winter).

              For me, given my small system, I have been utilizing the AGL 8c per Kwh from 12am to 6am so when I set the powerwall up, I set it up so it draws to the max (5kwh) during this time and let AGL decide when to stop. This is where I said to you sometimes they do it in my favour (like they would stop at 60% or 50% during summer and 90% during winter), sometimes they don't (ie: they charged to 100% even though it's summer).

              Because of my small system, I don't like them drawing power from my battery. I know they have the right to but I don't like it.

          • Maccadoodle on 19/04/2024 - 12:37

            @burningrage: Try this. https://archive.md/0Khd5

      • Nugs on 19/04/2024 - 05:48

        Our situation has been fine.
        I just checked the lifetime data in Tesla ap. It's showing 0.01MWh from battery to grid over 5.5 years, so even rounding up to 0.015 because of only 2 decimal places shown, thats is less than 3kWh per year drained
        .

    • Lookingforabargain on 12/04/2024 - 10:49

      My solar FIT is around 550kWh per month. Likely to reduce by 30-40% during Autum - Winter months.

      This is what is actually going back to the grid. Powercore has restricted my Fit to 5kWh.. So I am sure there plenty more thats just going to waste after charging my cars. If I check my inverter I generated 1.88 MWh of solar last month.. Out this only 522kWh sold back to grid.. If I check my daily usage I am using on avg 7kWh daily to run my home.. Compared to 22kWh before getting solar.

      With my current solar setup I should be able to charge the Powerwall 2 in under 90min.. My cars are currently charging @ 90% offgrid since getting the solar. I do an avg of 600-800km of driving each month across both my cars. That's $100pm saving just in charging the cars.

      • burningrage on 12/04/2024 - 12:30

        With that size of solar energy you get, I think you'd best served by going wholesale like Ember instead of getting upfront $1,500 from AGL.

        From The Australian article I read (remember the blackout I said before), during that blackout, the Mwh price was enormous like $10-15k per Mwh and you could get about $100+ whenever you sell power back to the grid during that time.

        Given the AGL VPP contract lasts for 5 years, a very good chance you will get that $1,500 back from selling the power back from excess energy.

        • Lookingforabargain on 12/04/2024 - 12:56

          I'll look into that, thanks. Ember is not offering any upfront incentive for Battery… I got $750 up front from AGL - $500 for battery + $150 for switching my power and gas over to them + they are giving me $1k to join the VPP.

      • freefall101 on 12/04/2024 - 14:12

        Pretty easy to work out, best scenario is that 7kwh goes down to zero. Whatever you're paying for it is your savings, (so say $2-3 a day, around $1k a year) and your payback period will be about 14 years. But then if you earn 5% interest on that $14,000 you'd get $700 without doing anything.

        There is also AGL's benefits to think of and feeding power from the battery back to the grid as well, but you don't have a lot to play with in that scenario.

        IMO I'll look at a battery when the payback period is under 10 years. My solar was less than 5. I also suspect with demand for EVs not growing all that quickly the supply of batteries for households will start to increase and create a competitive market. CATL was talking about a 60kwh battery costing less than 4K USD by year end, while there's a lot of additional electronics a powerwall isn't exactly as cheap as it could be.

        • Lookingforabargain on 12/04/2024 - 15:06

          It's not that simple. My out of pocket cost for this battery is going to be under $4k. Thanks for Solar Vic $8800 rebate that is available. Based on my historic usage I have done some number crunching - the ROI with solar is just over 10 yrs. Add 13kW Powerwall battery cost and my ROI goes down to 7yrs. with 2 EVs and HVAC my energy usage is going to be considerably much more than an avg household… Combine this with saving from stopping Gas heating (Last winter months cost me $250 pm on gas bills in May - July) - I will still use gas for hot water and cooking however, it's not going to be anywhere near the cost of gas heating during the Melbourne Autumn and winter periods.
          assumption that battery degradation of 4% over 5yrs period and Solar degradation of 3% without these degradations my ROI is below 7yrs.

          • MrQ88 on 12/04/2024 - 15:44

            @Lookingforabargain: Thats not true. That $8800 is to be paid back over 4 years @ $183.30c per month.

            My Solar, being 13.3kw system cost me $4100 out of pocket and $1400 solar rebate loan (paid back $29 monthly over 4 years).
            In the 12 months I've had it, I was getting 10c tariff and made close to $1000 in credit. Which went straight to paying off the Solar loan 3 years early. Still $4100 out of pocket. Recently changed to EV plan due to getting an EV 2 weeks ago.
            That is now down to 5c Feed In. So no longer making the strides I was prior to changing plans.

            My average daily usage is 4kw (prior to EV).

            Now with a Powerwall, I will be $4500 upfront, with $8800 to pay off over 4 years. Thats $13,300 out of pocket + $4100 = $17400.

            I would need to Export 116,000kw/h @ 0.15c to break even. Base on 12 months of Exporting 13,213 Kw/h, that is going to take, 9 years of exporting to break even, by then the Tesla Powerwall would have 12 months left of Warranty.

          • DoctorCalculon on 13/04/2024 - 00:42

            @Lookingforabargain:

            $8800

            This is NOT a rebate. Just a interest-free loan.
            So, you will still be out of pocket for the above amount.

      • DoctorCalculon on 13/04/2024 - 00:38

        Powercore has restricted my Fit to 5kWh

        5kW

        W is the unit of measure for power.
        Wh is a unit of measure for energy.

        Don't get the two confused.

        5kW is the standard export cap across most DNSPs.

  • DingoBlue on 12/04/2024 - 10:42
    +1

    I think depending on your objective and willingness to get involved there are three options from easy to less easy.

    1. Get on a VPP and rate plan that seems to make sense for you and just leave it at that.

    2. Do it yourself with some basic parameters set in the Tesla app. i.e. Try to use your own generation but save some for blackouts etc.

    3. Day trade with wholesale rates (i.e. Amber). Charge when power's cheap and sell when power is expensive. This can largely be set and forget but you might want to keep an eye on it.

    BTW - $14k is nothing to get excited about so don't be drawn in by the incentive. Sadly provider-branded offers are always three levels deep in subcontracts with plenty of fat in the price.

  • MrQ88 on 12/04/2024 - 10:44
    +2

    I'm literally in the same boat as you OP.

    I just engaged with a company to install a Powerwall 2. I've got a 13.2kw solar panel system for the past 6 months now.

    The company installing it have have a special offer with Simply Energy for VPP. $500 credit on join up and $20 monthly credit. Max use of Tesla Battery per year is 30 drains.
    Feed in Tariff is .15c kw.

    Right now I'm on OVO EV plan. Will miss the rates, but I gathered with the Battery, it will offset most if not all my usage during the night.

    I also have a Tesla EV, which I will mainly charge during the day when I join Simply Energy.

    OVO EV Plan
    Peak Rate - 0.3245c kw/h
    Super Off Peak - 0.08c kw/h
    Daily Supply - 0.76c
    Feed in - 0.05c kw/h

    Simply Energy VPP
    Peak Rate - 0.3925c kw/h
    Off Peak - 0.2709c kw/h
    Daily Supply - $1.1438
    Feed in - 0.15c kw/h

    • DingoBlue on 12/04/2024 - 10:48

      OVO EV varies by state but is great if you can get onto it. Mine has $0.00 between 11am and 2pm. Go your hardest to charge up free, use the power in the evening and then charge up again overnight at $0.08 for the morning's power.

      • MrQ88 on 12/04/2024 - 13:45

        I have the same, based in Victoria on Jemena network.

        I love the fact that 11AM-2PM is free.

        My issue is the tariff feedback. With 0.05c feed in, based on 710Kw/h during June, that's a difference of $35 OVO and $109 with Simply Energy (0.15c).

        Yes the daily supply is about $12 more per month, but that's easily offset with the high tariff.

        Also interested in the pricing for your HVAC system. Wanting to get rid of our Gas ducted and Evap cooling.

      • GLO on 14/04/2024 - 08:57

        @DingoBlue Do you know if the Telsa PW2 can be programmed to charged by the grid rather than solar during specific times.
        ie with your OVO plan, 11am-2pm and during the 8c off-peak window?
        Or alternatively can the PW2 charge from a Controlled Load and discharged back to the regular circuit?

        Thank

        • OzVic on 23/04/2024 - 01:05

          @GLO With TOU it will usually charge itself from the grid at the cheaper rates. If it decides not to go to 100% for whatever algorithmic reason it has come up with, you can set the reserve to 100%. There are apps like Netzero which can up the reserve to 100% and reset back to normal at the end of the cheap period automatically. AGL EV plan has 8c overnight and 7c FIT so for 13.5c difference you may as well just charge it to full. OVO might take some different calculations so battery is near lowest when hit the daytime free charging.

    • Lookingforabargain on 12/04/2024 - 12:11

      I compared the battery quote from Natural Solar and they are partnered with Simply Energy and told me about this deal. Few people I know are on Simply's EV plan, and their bills are consistently 5/7% higher than mine despite not having an HVAC and only 1 EV. So, I decided to switch to AGL. Their ToU rates are much better, and they are offering me a 21% discount on the entire bill. Overall, AGL is working out to be cheaper for me than my current provider (EnergyAustralia) and Simply, based on the last six months of usage (excluding the solar). VPP is a bonus

    • jv on 12/04/2024 - 13:45

      I'm literally in the same boat as you

      Please wear a life jacket …

  • AustriaBargain on 12/04/2024 - 11:44
    -7

    two Tesla cars

    You probably should get the Tesla branded battery then. And the USB phone charger. And whatever else they come up with, look into the solar panel roof tiles, get the Neuralink chip in your brain, get a season pass for unlimited tours to the Musk family emerald mine tour.

    • Lookingforabargain on 12/04/2024 - 12:03
      +2

      thanks for your feedback mate. Find me a better EV thats currently available in Australia.

  • 1st-Amendment on 12/04/2024 - 15:54
    +1

    The total cost of installation will be less than $14,000

    So how a VPP works is that the energy companies controls the use of the battery and can choose when they would like to use it for themselves. They can effectively drain it each day and use it themselves and you are paying for it. What do you get out of the deal?

    The Tesla Powerwall will integrate and auto-charge my cars during the day, further reducing my power bill

    So let's do some maths on this.
    Ave. kms: 15000/y
    Ave. EV uses: 0.18kWh/km
    Ave. cost of $0.30/kWh x 0.180 x 15000 = $810/year
    $14k cost/$810/year means a payback time of 17 years, just to break even. Assuming AGL don't take a single drop of your kWh for themselves.

    As comparison put $14k in an index fund and in 17 years it'll be worth $54k. That would pay for ALL of your power for the next 20 years.

    • netjock on 12/04/2024 - 16:08

      As comparison put $14k in an index fund and in 17 years it'll be worth $54k. That would pay for ALL of your power for the next 20 years

      It is more of an emotional decision rather than a financial decision. It why people crap on a Corolla Hybrid and rave about a Model 3. Not because it gets you from A to B but the "performance" like money is free.

      • Lookingforabargain on 12/04/2024 - 21:11

        This statement is factually incorrect..Cost of ownership of a Tesla M3 vs a Toyota corolla over 5yr period — Tesla come out cheaper than the corolla even without considering the novatel lease option or govt rebates…

        • netjock on 13/04/2024 - 14:16

          It depends on what facts you put into your model. I think you might have got some inaccuracies in your assumption.

          Like that WA Tesla club spreadsheet full of numerical inaccuracies.

        • 1st-Amendment on 13/04/2024 - 14:43

          Cost of ownership of a Tesla M3 vs a Toyota corolla over 5yr period

          Show you sums and let's see…

    • Lookingforabargain on 12/04/2024 - 16:17

      that is not how you calculate the ROI. At least not in my case where I am a heavy power user given it's the primary source of energy to run my house..
      Introducing Powerwall will reduce my power bill to hopefully under $50 /m from $100 /m (it already reduced to $100 from $250 /m after adding Solar - with the battery I should be + in summer with FiT and running home off grid completely)
      + Reduced Gas bill by at least $100 (being modest likely going to be much more during the winter months) - heating is now via HVAC
      + Free fuel/power for my cars - $100 /m
      I am looking at $250/$300 in monthly savings

      Now, with VPP the retailer will have access to my battery however, they can only use it for max $50 per year. for this I am getting a $1500 upfront compensation ($500 is just the battery rebate and $1000 if I remain with AGL for 5yrs)

      • netjock on 13/04/2024 - 14:20

        that is not how you calculate the ROI

        It is the same. One is opportunity cost which if you sink the money into is ROI.

        You need to work out your ROI on your solar if it is $300 a month ($3.6k a year) then your powerwall as incremental ROI (net of not getting fit).

        There is enough website advice on payback of batteries I am not going to repeat it and the pay off is 10 years. Even if you can make payback 5 years. I know mainstream investments that will double your money in 5 years (don't worry they don't pay dividends so it is all cap gains).

      • 1st-Amendment on 13/04/2024 - 14:56

        Introducing Powerwall will reduce my power bill to hopefully under $50 /m from $100 /m

        That is even worse.

        If it saves you $50/m ($600/y) it will take you 23 years to break even.
        The same $14k invested would turn into $87k over that period.

        Reduced Gas bill by at least $100 (being modest likely going to be much more during the winter months) - heating is now via HVAC

        Gas is far more efficient at heating than electric. And you said your HVAC is 17kW. A PW2 can only supply 5kW, so roughly 3 hours max from the battery at full load. For the the other 21 hours of the day you will be using retail electricity at retail prices. So your $100 gas bill could turn into $100+ electricity bill.

        • Free fuel/power for my cars

        You said this was already free. "my cars are charged via solar during the day".

        The PW doesn't help here because you will have to choose to power you house, your HVAC or your cars, not all 3. The two you choose not to use will be consuming retail electricity at retail prices. There are no free lunches here.

  • netjock on 12/04/2024 - 16:14
    +2

    OP hasn't done the spreadsheet work I assume.

    Download your usage vs the market options vs getting a battery and see whether it makes sense. You'd probably better off investing the money to cover your daily supply charge.

    Look at the article on the ABC today, supply charges would be going up. Energy prices likely to go down. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-12/power-prices-to-rise-…

  • LFO on 13/04/2024 - 10:40
    +1

    We got a Tesla Powerwall 2. And Gateway and solar panels and inverter, of course.

    An unexpected "issue" with the Tesla Powerwall 2 is how noisy it is. Nothing unbearable and probably not many decibels but it is noisy enough to know it is there.
    Sounds (noise) comes from an internal "pump" of some kind and several cooling fans now and then.

    I repeat, nothing unbearable but it does produce some sound/noise during charging (morning/daylight) and also during discharging (during the night).
    Dead quiet once is fully charged and idle.

    Annoying sounds are a very relative thing so my point is only that the Powerwall does produce some sounds/noise.
    Be aware of that.

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