Aurora Australis - Can You Predict? Have You Experienced It?

archieduh on 27/04/2023 - 14:17
Last edited 27/04/2023 - 16:18

So a friend of mine is at the South Coast NSW this week and she sends me a picture of Aurora she captured on her phone Monday pre-dawn.
I was talking about this at work, when someone mentioned they too saw it Tuesday evening at the Great Ocean Road. They mentioned they found out about it Tuesday morning and used an app. And then I checked online, with a lot of people stating that the apps said they have a 0% chance of witnessing it but the sky was lit up.

I never cared for it earlier as I thought it was unpredictable. I know a neighbour who travelled to Iceland for 10 days not to once see it (with the naked eye but were able to capture it 1 night with a long exposure on an SLR camera). Also, I thought maybe some day I will save for an extended trip to Tassie.

But now seeing images all over the coasts of SA, Victoria and NSW, and finding that we are in a time of heightened solar activity until 2025 - I am wondering if there are avenues like some NASA resource where we can find out about solar activity.
I shuttle between NSW and Victoria, so keen to get any suggestions how to understand more about this.
Maybe some astrophotographers out there.

On a side note, can a simple phone with a long exposure get a nice capture of the Aurora?

Travel

Comments

  • [Deactivated] on 27/04/2023 - 14:19
    +1

    pic?

    • archieduh on 27/04/2023 - 14:58
      +1

      Had to ask permission
      https://i.imgur.com/tkLdtun.jpg

      • MS Paint on 27/04/2023 - 15:00
        +2

        There is a lot of noise and it's bloody blurry so good chance it was hand held with a phone camera.

        • archieduh on 27/04/2023 - 15:04
          +1

          Yeah. As i mentioned in the opening line, it is on a phone.

  • FireRunner on 27/04/2023 - 14:28
    +19

    Aurora Australis? At this time of year? At this time of day? In this part of the country? Localised entirely within your kitchen?

    • Destin on 27/04/2023 - 14:43
      +7

      May I see it?

      • archieduh on 27/04/2023 - 16:20
        +1

        No

        Ps: I finally got the joke. Simpsons are just… hats off.. good one!

    • Jimothy Wongingtons on 27/04/2023 - 15:46
      +4

      Damn it you beat me to the joke haha

      • Caped Baldy on 27/04/2023 - 17:56
        +1

        too busy grilling your steamed hams?

        • Jimothy Wongingtons on 27/04/2023 - 18:33
          +3

          Actually I had gone home and began bundling my old newspapers… but suddenly the pile fell. I was trapped! Let this be a lesson to recycle frequently. For the next week I stayed alive by eating my mother's delicious preserves and maintained my sanity by dribbling a nearby basketball with my one free hand. I made a game of it. Seeing how many times I could bounce the ball in a day, and then trying to break that record .. I realised if I was ever going to get out of there I would have to do it myself. I formed a crude rocket from a discarded cigar tube and remembering an experiment from my days as a 4th Grade science teacher I concocted a fuel from baking soda and the juice of discarded lemon wedges. The rocket took off with a mighty blast of carbon dioxide dragging behind it the end of a vacuum cleaner cord. I grabbed onto the vacuum cleaner, pushed the cord retractor button, and was on my way to freedom. That's my courageous story.

  • MS Paint on 27/04/2023 - 14:28
    +2

    Have you reverse imaged the pic to see if they pinched it off the internet?

    • archieduh on 27/04/2023 - 14:58

      No reason for them to make it up.

  • Mokr on 27/04/2023 - 14:32

    Only tasmian

    • archieduh on 27/04/2023 - 14:59

      I know mostly, but this week so many sightings elsewhere. And it is going to keep happening.

  • Benoffie on 27/04/2023 - 14:40
    +1

    I believe in SA it was out at Elliston

    Why there, I have no clue

    But yes, you're right re occurrances. Radio clubs are talking about increased sun activity or some such (truthfully I don't catch all of what the Husband says)

  • TasJacks on 27/04/2023 - 14:43
    +4

    Your friend was correct. Aurora was visible in mainland as well as Tassie of course. Recent iPhones with a 10 sec exposure can capture Auroras. Unsure about other phones (maybe S23 can do it).

    I've experienced it 4-5 times now (the brightest being 3 days ago!). It's not super clear to naked eye but phones seem to capture all beams. These help me out:

    Govt email alerts: IPS-Aurora-Alerts
    Facebook: Aurora Australis Tasmania
    Mobile App: My Aurora Forecast

    Combination of these help me in understanding when there is confirmed activity, but you gotta be ready and just go for it as it depends on cloud cover and how far away from light pollution you can go.

    • archieduh on 27/04/2023 - 15:01

      Thank you.

      What i did find was, the info for states other than Tassie was wrong. When my friend captured it, she downloaded the app minutes later and it said 0% chance. And others online said the same (but fot the European Aurora).

  • jjjaar on 27/04/2023 - 14:46
    +2

    Ok so there are two really important things here - the Aurora Australia can absolutely be captured by cameras, I’ve caught her a few times. However in terms of seeing with the naked eye, it happens, but it’s rarer than being able to capture by camera.

    I reckon in the last 6 months, in Victoria it’s been seen by the naked eye on about 4 occasions, but by camera probably about 5 times that amount.

    Monday morning was some of the strongest activity southern Australia has had recently and a lot of people said they saw it without their cameras.

    There are a lot of great Facebook groups you can join to hunt the aurora Australis - my favourite is Aurora Hunters United. Lots of resources about how and where to see it and updated info on whether there will be activity in the next few hours.

    • archieduh on 27/04/2023 - 15:02

      Ah ok. Facebook groups it is.

    • archieduh on 27/04/2023 - 15:08
      +1

      A bit disappointed with the stats of being able to see it with the naked eye, as that's what must truly feel great.

      • TasJacks on 27/04/2023 - 15:16
        +1

        Northern Lights it is then.

        • archieduh on 27/04/2023 - 15:17
          +1

          or Tassie :)

          • jjjaar on 27/04/2023 - 16:34
            +2

            @archieduh: Even in Tassie it’s still not always visible by eye, it’s still probably 1 in every 5 times that a camera will pick it up, but the chance of a camera picking it up is probably 1.5-3x as often as in Victoria, so still a much higher chance.

  • Halsmich on 27/04/2023 - 14:47
    +1

    There are apps like Glendale etc. and groups that follow/notify about activity, but generally it's pretty short notice and unless you live close to the coast/southernly point, then you usually have to commit on the night and just eat it if there's nothing. If activity is particularly strong, then maybe you'll be lucky and it lingers onto the next day, except by then everybody will have the memo and popular spots will be packed. A long exposure shot off a smartphone can capture it, however chances are the shot will look pretty arse like most low-light smartphone photog, but I guess that doesn't really matter to most people.

    • Ghost47 on 27/04/2023 - 14:50
      +1

      however chances are the shot will look pretty arse like most low-light smartphone photog

      This was what happened on Monday night in the FB group Aurora Hunters Victoria lol. Some were bad and some were decent but the best ones were definitely captured on an actual camera.

      Excited for more of these auroras.

      • jjjaar on 27/04/2023 - 17:20

        but the best ones were definitely captured on an actual camera

        And on a tripod!

        You need the camera to be completely still. Whether it be on a tripod or resting on something else. But handheld won’t work. You’re also best to have a 3 second timer too so clicking the button doesn’t impact the cameras movement.

        • Ghost47 on 27/04/2023 - 18:45
          +1

          Yeah definitely. Hoping to photograph some auroras myself on the coming months!

          • jjjaar on 27/04/2023 - 19:56
            +2

            @Ghost47: My first one was just so amazing. I definitely couldn’t see anything with the naked eye so when I snapped a pic and could see beams, it was very exciting. Then in post-processing I made them come out a bit more. Even though I didn’t see it with my eyes, photographing it and knowing that I was looking toward it was magical.

    • archieduh on 27/04/2023 - 15:08

      Thanks

    • archieduh on 27/04/2023 - 16:33
      +1

      Thank you! How did i not find it when googling beats me.. cheers

  • eatcroissants on 27/04/2023 - 16:35
    +3

    I saw the southern lights on Monday in Tassie (essentially the southern most point of Tassie - check Southport!) and captured it using my iphone.

  • BuyoTheCat on 27/04/2023 - 18:21
    +3

    I have seen it all the way up in heathcote with the naked eye. it was the night of 24th March. I saw it really faintly on 24th April night. That morning from 4am, there was a massive display.

    Forecasts are getting better these days because they are monitoring CMEs more closely. The one on 24th April was MASSIVE from a CME a day earlier

    The main factor is the light pollution. You need to be in at least a blue zone for a faint glow.

    • archieduh on 27/04/2023 - 20:39

      Thanks, reading it now.

  • Catsfan070911 on 27/04/2023 - 20:28
    +3

    I missed an apparently amazing one whilst on holiday in Tasmania in 2022. Every one was raving about it the next day and seemed like 90% of people managed to see it (apparently was highly visible and impressive). Meanwhile I went to bed early after being happy having found some Platypus' haha.

    • archieduh on 27/04/2023 - 20:40
      +2

      I know the feeling. Not that I was close anywhere haha.

  • Sega on 28/04/2023 - 08:09
    +1

    There are a number of Twitter accounts I follow that are scientists that specifically report on solar activity and some specifically solar wind activity. These don’t predict per se, but the correlation of activity there does relate to arora activity both ends. N and S.

    I also follow a few accounts in Canada, US, Scandi countries, of arora nerds. The activity over the last few months is off the charts world wide. Viewing is being noted in the mid west of USA, down to nth Texas. In the Artic it’s insanely Great.
    It’s said that seeing on film doesn’t ever do it justice. Complared to live. A journos wrote a few years back “it’s like watching music”. Bucket list stuff. … I live about 30 mins from coast on GOR, too lazy to get up early (been sick)..

    There are no guarantee predictors that I’m aware of but there are indicators

    • archieduh on 28/04/2023 - 18:10

      Thanks, would be nice to get some Twitter handles to follow

      • Sega on 29/04/2023 - 10:27
        +1

        Go to topics and find the one that says Aurora info and follow that, then cherry pick the solar activity stuff you may have to dig a bit deeper for but youre in the place now so it’s not that difficult to find.

        Solar stuff is next level size scale

  • smitty1975au on 28/04/2023 - 09:23
    +2

    This site might help, there's a section down the left hand side that shows forecast probability of aurora and has alerts you can sign up for.
    https://spaceweather.com/

  • [Deactivated] on 28/04/2023 - 10:45
    +1

    Spaceweather is good https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-southe…
    Also http://www.aurora-service.net/aurora-forecast/ (Note, still HTTP not HTTPS)

  • Tigercjn on 28/04/2023 - 14:17
    +1

    Its best to join the Facebook group for your area, I just joined the Victorian one after seeing

    Plenty of pics that were taken on the 24th but we went to the coast for the night of the 25th and nothing.

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/701943693274746/

    Not that easy to see.

  • ozbargainerlife1 on 02/05/2023 - 00:38
    +1

    i'm in TAS - very easy to see here!

  • farsal on 08/05/2023 - 15:42

    It's pretty rare in Tasmania but if you want to see them you'll need a hire car to get out of the city & into the best spots:

    https://www.discovertasmania.com.au/experiences/stories/sout….

    • archieduh on 08/05/2023 - 16:23

      Virgin has a flights deal.. maybe now is the time to plan a trip for Auroras.

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