How Your Property Portfolio Going or Revisiting My Thoughts from The Last Year

ALesha77 on 27/01/2023 - 18:21

All right, keeping my promise to some representatives of the angry fauna around here and revisiting my thread from 7 month ago (https://www.ozbargain.com.au/comment/12287904/redir)

Half a year ago I gave you my thought about the bubble-top in the AU real-estate, explained why AND … the prices were going down since - https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/706538?page=1#comment
Proof - https://www.corelogic.com.au/our-data/corelogic-indices#dail…

At the time when thankful readers were done with abusing of that post , the polls have shown that:
- 42 have sold their IP (well-done, you!)
- 18 were still thinking (wonder if any have pulled the trigger)
- 250 were sure that Property prices always go up (don't even know what to say… sorry, guys…?)

What do you say, let's repeat the poll - keen to vote below?

Let's add an option for those who what to know what happens next

Khmmm.. While we are on this topic - I have re-read some of my thought on different markets from the last year and checked how those turned out.

I said that, in my view, staking your crypto on any platform was nuts and explained the risks in April 2022, called out Celsius and stable-coins - https://www.ozbargain.com.au/comment/12023714/redir
Two months after (June 2022), the mentioned Celsius went under pausing withdrawals and then filing for bankruptcy - hope you pulled out your stakes in time.
A lot of similar businesses folded over shortly with LUNA / Terra stable-coin taking centre-stage precisely due to the risks explained in the post

I told you that I am NOT a buyer of TSLA in May 2022 and explained why - https://www.ozbargain.com.au/comment/12148949/redir
What happened: TSLA was down 67% since May 2022. There was a recent short-squeeze which I expect to fade in Q2-Q3 2023

I told you that China's tech and growth stocks looked much more tempting to me vs AUS200 in Apr 2022 - https://www.ozbargain.com.au/comment/11981780/redir
What happened: KWEB (ETF for China's tech) is up 50% with 25% draw-down, AUS200 is not even back to flat (still negative) with 16% draw-down since Apr 2022

Later I suggested to avoid BTC and was very bearish on digital assets - https://www.ozbargain.com.au/comment/12028046/redir
What happened: BTC was down 65% since Apr 2022, most of shit-coins are down 80-90-100%. There was a recent pull-back due to funds short-covering and another FOMO but I expect it fade later in the year (still bearish until the rate cuts kick in)

In May 2022 I said I preferred to stay in gold and precious metals ETFs and miners - https://www.ozbargain.com.au/comment/12097499/redir
What happened: GDX is up 10% with 20% draw-down - as promised "stellar performance is not likely but it will keep your money's worth real purchasing power". For the record, I expect a minor pullback and then up and away for gold and precious metals in 2023-24, still a good play.

Same post I explained how I think Oil holding under 94 will give boost to base metals,
What happened: CL holding resistance of $94 since Sep 2022 allowed XME (base metals miners) to rocket up 34%

Same post I said that Tech, Discretionary, Comms sectors are NOT a good place to park money, in my opinion
What happened: XLK (tech), XLY (discretionary) and XLC (comms) are down 10-15% with 25% draw-down, Cathie's ARKK (quintessence of non-profit tech and discretionary, rich in TSLA) is down another 50%

I wonder if any of those angry fauna reps thankful readers will have balls to post a track-record of their forecasts?

Poll Options expired

  • 4
    Yes, I have sold my IP portfolio
  • 0
    Still Thinking about selling
  • 42
    Property prices always go up (hope is the best investment strategy)
  • 5
    Want to know what will happen next
Financial

Comments

  • AustriaBargain on 27/01/2023 - 18:31
    +3

    I'd invest in the Justin Bieber catalogue, personally. Nostalgia is going to be putting those songs in movies and ads for decades to come.

    • ThithLord on 30/01/2023 - 09:10

      $280m for his catalogue. You gotta hand it to the guy, dang

      • AustriaBargain on 30/01/2023 - 10:24

        And that was just his own personal share of his catalogue. All up every song he's made has to be worth a billion easy.

  • Kaz0551 on 27/01/2023 - 18:34

    Nice predictions! Shame I kissed out on them… What's your next move? :)

  • Drakesy on 27/01/2023 - 18:46

    I agreed with you on many fronts, and look where we are today.
    The only investors left will be those with zero or very little remaining in their mortgage.

    The number of fixed term loans that are expiring over the next year is significant and Sydney/Melbourne/Brisbane won't see a recovery for some time given how overcooked they got.

    When you can get 4-5% in a bank vs zero/-ve growth in an investment property you've got to question why you'd take the risk.

    • Kaz0551 on 27/01/2023 - 19:08

      I bought 2 properties with 80 and 70% loans (settled November and Feb) both positive geared with 8% yields. It is still possible to make it work!

      • Kaz0551 on 27/01/2023 - 19:09

        In before the haters. One tenant is a single mum on Centrelink. She cannot afford to buy but can afford to rent.

  • SBOB on 27/01/2023 - 18:54
    +4

    With such accurate predictions, I assume you're posting this from your private island after making 10s millions over the last months ?

  • monky on 27/01/2023 - 19:01

    Kinda hoping the housing bubble pops a second or third time at this point…

  • localhost on 27/01/2023 - 19:22
    +2

    Add another poll option: I don't care about your thoughts and kept my IP portfolio.

  • mbck on 27/01/2023 - 19:41
    +6

    https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/730219

    You were wrong here. You said there was no other option for the Brits.

    Yawn, I cbf looking through your posts looking at your mistakes, but anyone being loud about how they're right and having a list, is a bit mentally ill.

    No harm done, so you do you.

    China, lol, yeah there's money to be made, they're on a charming offensive to keep foreign corporates to stay (begging), but just as easily, they can take it all away as can be seen very recently.

    As always people, be careful of what you read on the internet. (Including mine).

  • elgrande on 27/01/2023 - 20:11
    -3

    There is one rate rise left (Feb - 0.25), after that, they will hold steady.

    • Drakesy on 28/01/2023 - 10:15
      +1

      Not with inflation the way it is
      We're still going for a while

  • Nugs on 27/01/2023 - 20:13
    +3

    Were you doing a 'told you so dance' while typing that?
    .

  • pharkurnell on 27/01/2023 - 20:25
    +1

    TLDR

  • Tiredman on 27/01/2023 - 21:26

    I keep my properties. I don't sell unless i am building townhouses then I will sell one. Looking at buying in the next three months. Market bottom is almost here IMO. Loaded up on Bitcoin at 18k. Low enough for me.

    • lordra on 01/07/2023 - 21:53

      @Hodler
      Did you end up buying mate?

      Can you please dm me? Thanks!

  • redfox1200 on 27/01/2023 - 21:59
    +3

    imagine selling your property and paying your capital gains tax and loosing the rental income, then waiting for the market to crash atleast 15% just to rebuy at BREAKEVEN

    • plmko on 27/01/2023 - 22:15

      But then you have cash in a low borrowings environment to reach for prime property.

  • Clear on 27/01/2023 - 22:09
    +4

    No reason to sell. It's a constant stream of income.

    • brendanm on 27/01/2023 - 22:25
      +1

      bUt THe vAlue HAs gOnE DOWN!!!???!!!!!!!!

      Incoherent screeching

      • Clear on 27/01/2023 - 22:26

        Still worth 50% more than what I paid 😂😂 Silly people they are.

        • brendanm on 27/01/2023 - 22:26
          +3

          bUt ITs GonE DOwn 1.5%!!!! The market has crashed!

  • mitt on 27/01/2023 - 23:58

    I hope it crashes hard about a year from now, I will be in a great position to buy some over-leveraged investor's broken dreams.

    • elgrande on 28/01/2023 - 10:34

      If you plant 'I hope' it will grow 'if only'.

      • mitt on 28/01/2023 - 10:43

        Not sure why you think that platitude applies here but ok I guess.

        I am not holding off trying to time the market, it will just be a year or so before I am ready to buy another property. I hope the market bottom matches up for when I am ready to move & it looks like it might come close but it's not essential.

  • payless69 on 28/01/2023 - 04:02

    Ask Queeney and get stretch pants at Costco?

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