Solar System Pricing Expectations

Dear OzBargain family,

I am seeking your wisdom and sage advice. Finally serious about getting solar, probably a bit late, perhaps better late than never.
Situation: single-storey house in VIC, 2 adults (baby on the way!), yearly electricity bill ~$850 factoring in the new August 1 price increases in Victoria, but anticipated increasing usage with upcoming baby and parental leave.

Have received most of my information from Solar Quotes. Current preferred system is Trina panels + SMA inverter + 6 optimisers for shading issues (would like Fronius inverter, but given the fan, dealbreaker for me as I am exquisitely sensitive to noise). Due to some limitations, can only do 5 kW panel system + 5 kW inverter (would have liked 6.6 kW panel system, but oh well).

Fortunately/unfortunately do not qualify for the $1400 Victoria solar rebate. Best quote after STCs is about $7500. Given previous OzBargain deals with comparable systems, this is about $2000 above what I initially expected to pay (acknowledging ineligibility for the $1400).

Dilemma: relatively low electricity usage, factoring in anticipated increase in usage, return on investment would be 6-8 years. If electricity prices increase further, would be quicker return. However, we anticipate we will likely move house within 5-10 years. We could get a cheap system that I expect to last 5 years before breaking, but I couldn't do that to the potential future owners of our home, and wish to hand over a quality long-lasting product. I also want to do my bit for the environment.

Main question: does $7500 for our proposed system seem reasonable? All the installers I've spoken to are on Solar Quotes and are more the less at the same price point, but are they more 'expensive' because they are on Solar Quotes and therefore considered more reputable?

TLDR: do you think $7500 for 5kW/5kW solar system (Trina panels + SMA inverter) in Victoria at this point in time is reasonably priced (not eligible for $1400 VIC solar rebate)?

Thanks in advance and I look forward to hearing your thoughts.

Update (20/08/22): thanks so much for sharing all your experiences, thoughts and advice. Decided to pull the trigger. May not make a definite investment return, but I think it'll give us a bit more control over electricity in some ways, as well as doing our part for the environment. Installation will be late September. Cost ~$7300. Can't wait!

Comments

  • +1

    return on investment would be 6-8 years

    I think it would stretch out more as power generation in winter is very low. Also FIT is very low.

    does $7500 for our proposed system seem reasonable

    Not sure of Trina, I got Sunpower/Enphase and it cost me about $12k for 6.4kw without the VIC solar rebate.

    • Thanks for the reply. I think you're right regarding the ROI, probably closer to 10 years, I wanted to be optimistic. Your setup is what I want, but cannot justify purchasing! Trina is like Jinko; big Chinese panel manufacturer, technologically now advanced, but still relatively affordable.

  • +1

    I am currently getting solar installed today in melb , I found solar quotes in my case steep and the data may have been not put in accurately to show a better return ,than in actuality. I found a small legit crew through a wholesale company that I used to use when I worked in construction, everything is going/gone great plus saved a few thousand.

    • +1

      Nice one. I went through some non-solar quote installers, and the prices were pretty similar, perhaps around $500 less at most.

  • +2

    I got 3 from Solarquotes but went with another group.
    I think Solarquotes is a great business, but don’t feel constrained by their quotes. Use their tech info and guides and get some of your own.
    We ended up doing ours through Origin because at the time they were doing it for 2 years interest free. It really suited our cash flow - particularly when we got roughly 1/3 rebate paid immediately as a local incentive at the time.
    Look at installer reviews and make sure you get Tier 1 components with decent warranties. Remember every man and his dog want solar atm. Maybe wait until spring or summer and see if prices ease.

    Sounds like although you like peace and quiet - you should connect with loudnoises……😁

    • +1

      Love the information on Solar Quotes, such a valuable resource. For better or worse, it also set some expectations. Sounds like you got yourself a good deal at the time. No real good deals available at the moment unfortumately, probably due to very high demand :(

      • For me, I’d consider waiting. While prices could go up further, inflation is likely to ease and prices along with it. You may get a better deal in a few months. Gov is madly trying to manage energy transition and while more household solar is likely down the list, batteries are a great demand management tool. Also don’t ignore options to get off gas that are definitely coming.
        And while Putin is currently causing a load of energy issues, if he folds in the next 6 months Russia will be flooding the market with cheap hydrocarbons, likely swamping the market. People being what they are, the demand for solar could head south somewhat…

        • +1

          So hard to prdict what will happen, which is frustrating. I might bite the bullet now. Installer has said prices about to rise Sep 1. The installer I'll be going with seems genuine, not trying to upsell, if anything pegging things back to a middle-of-the-road system where there is probably better value for money for my situation.

  • +1

    mine came in at $2250 off a deal on here w/growatt inverter and 6.6kw seraphim panels about a year ago.
    Admittedly WA has a higher rebate, but next to no feed in tariff.

    Although i'd imagine you couldn't put a price on the milky way

    • Great price. I think the installers have gotten to me; inverter choice for me is now SMA or SolarEdge (or apparently a new Fronius which is fan-less and battery-ready but also very expensive!)

      • I didn't think Fronius has any fanless inverters but if you're talking about the Fronius Gen24 which has a new fan design and is very quiet, not sure what your battery requirements would be if any, but double check the battery-ready side of things. I was looking at it a while ago and there are caveats to that statement.

        There is a PV point that runs off the internal battery but you need to plug directly into it, it won't auto switch.
        For external batteries there was only certain models you get full battery backup (ie during grid power loss), I think for single phase wasn't so bad but for 3 phase was only the larger inverters. Maybe it's just me but if I was to get batteries I'd like to have them usable during a power outage.

        Haven't worried to much about the battery ready side of things, just seemed like a larger expense now. Instead when the time comes and they are more affordable I'll look at AC coupled batteries (that work without grid power ;) By the sounds of it batteries aren't much of a concern for you at the moment either.

        • Yes, I think that’s the one, gen24, quieter can but still has one. Agreed, probably not yet the time for batteries for our situation

    • Can you please share the installer name?

      • They were emerge solar
        There's a couple of deals on here

  • SYDNEY
    Got mine 10kW (3 Phase) 27 panels Huawei inverter $4300 installed (after rebates of course) in Jan '21
    This price seems to be too steep.
    Agree price has gone up, but a mate of mine recently got a 7.5kW for $6500

    • I regret not getting it done in 2021. Seems like there were some great deals to be had then. Cracking price for your setup. Your mate's price is also good, but clearly not as good as yours

  • +3

    The Solar System must be worth trillions, at least all the wealth on the planet.

  • +1

    Another plug for SolarQuotes it's the best website I've found for information about everything you need to know. Their quote system is great, and they provide an extra benefit in that they back their installers so much that they guarantee the installation, so if you have any issues you have multiple options for fixing the install.

    It has a lot of info on prices/panels/inverters, and you can compare to your heart's content.

    • Yeah, down a big rabbit hole, too many permutations, which I guess isn't a bad thing. I do feel confident that if I go with one of the solar quotes installers, I'll be looked after from a build quality POV

  • We paid $3,500 for 5kw inverter and 6.6kwh installed on 3 phase, double storey. Installed Dec21 in VIC.

    A bit of our data to assist:

    As a reference on 6months of data (Jan-Jun22), I calculate our system (utilising 45% of generation, which I've verified using our inverter & powercor data) has provided us about $454 of genuine savings based on use vs export. Keep in mind, we are on a very, very low usage rate (17.6c - locked until Mar23), so this saving will increase as our price increases.

    Over the same period, the theoretical maximum saving assuming 100% utilisation and 0% export is $685 for the same 6months - so capturing 66% of the value its generating, which I think is pretty good.

    Annually, thats $900 of actual savings - so expecting repayment in about 4 years, which is inline with what we were thinking. This may speed up as prices rise - but we remain shielded for another 8 months.

    At $7,500 investment - I wouldnt bother solely on the numbers. The repayment period (not even a single benefit) will be much higher, and the generation will be lower than the above.

    I'm also not convinced rooftop solar adds value to a property. Happy to be proven wrong, but thats my 2c.

    • $3500 after rebate or before rebates? Make a difference. Mine would be $3500 after rebate before $1400 loan.

      • Sorry, after rebate, before loan.

        • +1

          We probably contracted the same company to install :D

    • Thanks for the details. 2021 seemed like the opportune time; or rather, even 2022 before the Ukraine war and 'supply chain issues' (aka let's put everything up and see how much we can charge customers and blame 'inflation'). I agree with your sentiment that rooftop solar doesn't add property value. I did not care whether our house had solar or not. My colleague also purchased a house recently, not knowing it had solar.

  • Getting installed on Monday 6.6kw of Jinko 440W + 5kw Growatt inverter. East West. $4500 before any rebates in Victoria. $7500 gross $3k STC. Firm is 10 years in the business. Got the quote sorted 2 weeks ago. 1 week for solar rebate processing. 1 week wait for installation.

    Solar Quotes (recommendations) all wanted $7.5k after STC even for Trina / Jinko + Huawei / Growatt.

    • Just make sure you follow up and push your retailer to process the feed in tariff. They stuffed me around a bit so I lost Jan/Feb feed-in - but got a rebate equal to roughly what I would have gotten as feed in.

      Not so much of an issue in winter, but yeah - be ready for summer!

      • Will do. These seem like little things that can really add up

    • That's a good price. I'm opting for a pricier inverter, perhaps $1000-$1500 dearer. Your STC is also significantly higher than what I can get, which is around $2000, so the inverter difference + STC difference probably accounts for about $2000-$2500. However, you have 4 more panels, so that's another $1000 difference the other way. So my system should only be $1000-$1500 more expensive than yours taking all this into account ($5500-$6500, but quoted for $7500, acknowledging the different panel brands, which from what I can gather are comparable).

  • only thing I would add is that when getting installers to quote fitment, they'll try and push for a north-facing orientation (and say that the sun will cover both morning and afternoon demand).
    Its not true. My production is heavily bell-shaped and whilst great for the time that my family is WFH, come a return to FT office work, the solar production drops at the times needed most (particularly afternoons in winter/summer). Wish I could turn back time and have it fitted E-W to maximising self-use. North facing makes more kw overall but less when you need it.

    • E-W is 15% less production overall but with feed in heading for zero I feel you.

      • +1

        Yep sounds about right. In the time of FIT's being somewhat close to the retail price (>50% of retail electricity price), producing heaps was the main objective.
        Now its about maximum self-produced consumption, to return the payback period.

        • There is no incentive for energy retailers / generators or distributors to build big batteries.

          Generators want to maximise the price of their assets only (use coal / gas until they break down) wind & solar just keep pumping.
          Retailers want to make a margin while you can, don't worry about shocks that will send you out of business (like recently)
          Distributors want to try to extract as much money from everyone as possible (ie solar feed in tax)

          Problem I also found was solar installers didn't want to know what your consumption right now is. They want to sell you much as they can. I had someone say you should put in 10kw (feed in limit is 5kw) because in a few years you might get an electric car. Problem is do I want to stay home all day to charge it. I'd rather overnight slow charge than spend sunny days tied to my house.

    • +1

      E-W will not do any much better for 9-5 workers anyway, in Sydney winter it is pretty close to 0w output by the time you're out of the office. Morning is pretty much the same, and morning usage patterns isn't much.

      • +1

        Yes not much better but will worth it for current pricing. However for summer months those west facing panels will offset the aircon use heavily.
        Also with my house being a mixed wfh (someone always home) having the heating around 8-9am and 3-4pm is better than a massive excess around 12-2 with massive drops on either side

        • Why didn't you get extra panels on the west side?

          • @JIMB0: 5kw export limit where i live and upgrade to 3 phase not worth the outlay based on household use/age.
            Pretty much limited to the 7.8 system to not go over the export cap daily.

        • +1

          Even having East facing panels standing upright will not make savings worthwhile if you want any form of heating at 8am. When you're reaching the time of the year when the output for such system is high enough you'll find that you don't need any form of heating at all.

    • You make some good points. Wife will be on maternity leave for a year, so North-facing works well for that reason. Afterwards, hard to know to be honest. Battery would be great but definitely cannot justify getting one of those at this point in time!

  • The in-laws recently have their solar FIT tariffs cut to 7 cents/kWh, gone are the days of 40 cents/kWh FITs that make solar energy such an attractive proposition (aside from their environmental benefits).

    • It is actually really bad policy. I think at 7 cents there is no economics in buying a bigger system than you need because feed in is so poor. Installers are only interested in increments of 6kw (panels) and 5kw (inverters) unless you have serious issues with roof space and shading.

    • +1

      Many Victorian energy companies are only giving an FiT of 5.2c/kWh now, the minimum set by the state government. Looking bleaker and bleaker

  • +1

    SolarQuotes were on the high end for me, ended up going with another supplier (before 30 June price rises) for a 6.6kW (Jinko N Panels, Goodwe inverter) for $5350 (no gov rebates). 2 storey house, Colorbond, Single Phase.

    • Where was this? Would you recommend the company?

      • Outer east (Lilydale). Company is Sunline Solar - used them at our previous house, and were easy to deal with - but like everything they all seem to subcontract to different electricians and I’m sure that it depends on who you get on the day. I think I found them from a previous OzBargain deal

    • Thanks for your information. Installers have always said 'prices have gone up recently' whenever I push them on a better deal. I believe it is somewhat true, albeit possibly exaggerated. The ones I've come across which I like seem to use their own people, which provides somewhat more accountability, but certainly at a price!

  • I just payed yesterday for 10.34Kw Jinko N-type + Fronius inverter 8.2 + a free monitor thing $9473 after rebates.

    Also in Victoria.

    • Free monitor is a nice tough, a few hundred saved there

  • +2

    anticipated increasing usage with upcoming baby

    dealbreaker for me as I am exquisitely sensitive to noise

    How did you reconcile those two statements with your partner when deciding on the baby (let alone solar inverters)?

    I hope you realise how much noise can be emitted by that small thing - the baby, not the inverter.

    Is it not possible to locate the inverter somewhere it won't be audible? I had ours mounted inside the garage.
    To be honest it's really not that noisy.

    • Haha, good point..

      The Fronius Gen24 is pretty quiet but expensive. Those little fans in the Symo/Primo a definitely noisy if running under full load, but I also have it in the garage and can't hear it in the house.

    • I see your point…clearly we did not plan this! Haha I joke. Pretty easy; since we want children, I have no choice and will happily manage this. With the inverter, there are many choices, of which most are passively cooled and essentially silent.

      Garage is probably where we will mount our inverter too, but it does get extremely hot in Summer, although the installers state this shouldn't be an issue.

  • +1

    Your biggest increase in cost there would be the shade optimisers. They tend to bump quotes quite a bit, but are very important.

    I paid around that for a 5kw system including a Fronius inverter (it's in the garage, so the noise doesn't bother me), but no optimisers.

    Other things to consider, if you haven't already:

    • Time you are intending to stay in the premises. This one is important because it kinda informs the next points.
    • Whether you would consider batteries in the future (when they drop in price/increase in effectiveness). The inverter would need to support this, but at only 5kw of input, may not be worth it.
    • EV demands. If you were considering getting an EV in the future, this can chew through a bit of your generated solar. With only 5kw though, I believe most people recommend NOT getting a fast charger, and just charging overnight/during the day on the weekend.

    Honestly the most important thing to do is just change your habits. Energy companies give you next to nothing for the energy you sell back to the grid, so you're MUCH better off using it while you're generating it. This means scheduling your dishwasher/washing machine to run when there's plenty of excess solar, trying to eat earlier in the evening so that you can cook while there's still some free power (or getting into slow cooking and cooking during the day), using vacuum during the day, pre-cooling the house in summer by turning AC on during the peak generation period (with good insulation, house should still be cool when you get home).

    • Thanks for the reply and excellent suggestions. In principle, much of what you mention, particularly regarding changing habits, is how we intend to maximise the benefit of having solar.

      Yes, all quotes have optimisers, essentially increasing the cost by about $1000. I guess that probably accounts for some of the high pricing.

      Unfortunately hard to know how long we’ll be at this house, which is a major factor. If I were here for the next 10 years, then it’a a much easier decision to get solar now.

      Probably will get an EV at some stage, but agreed, the 5kW system doesn’t match well with this.

      Would love a battery, but also too expensive now unfortunately.

      Lots to consider!

      • One of the other big plusses for solar, is guilt-free usage. Even if it's basically just a "break even" point, you can rest safer in the knowledge that you are contributing significantly less carbon than someone without solar.

        • Yeah, I think I'm leaning more towards getting it than not, because of this reason in particular.

  • You are in a position where the financial incentives aren’t as high. Do you want solar? Sometimes it’s not just about the financial decision.

    Our system wasn’t the cheapest quote. I chose the company that turned up in a work ute with workboots for the quote, not the one with a Prado with fancy clothes and brochures.

    • Thanks for your insight. I think you’ve hit the nail on the head; I’d love solar and regret not getting it sooner. Leaning towards probably getting it after all the comments.

      How did you know which company rocked up in the boots and ute vs. fancy clothes?

      • I was there when they came to do the quote? Ultimately, the workboots guy sounded like he knew what he was selling, not just a sales pitch. The fancy clothes salesperson didn’t appear to know what they were doing and made me feel that their business was more like grab your money and run.

        • Sounds good. So far all the quotes I've received have been via phone or email. I have narrowed the field to 2 installers, who I will get to do an on-site visit and update the quote accordingly. Will see what kind of shoes they wear!

        • Guy came in workboots and a 4WD (off-road country-style type of car). A good sign methinks.

  • Would recommend Total Solar Solutions. They did our Solar nearly 2 years ago and we chose them based on the solution they wanted to install (Fronius + LG Panels) and the positive Google reviews they had.

    We paid ~$8.2k for a 8.1kw system.

    It's been well worth it for us (RCAC running all day in winter for $0 per hour) and we'd probably consider it as a priority for any new home we purchased.

    • Nice one, excellent combination of panel and inverter. Too bad LG stopped making panels, but probably too premium for me. I think I may have decided on my installer, but appreciate your input. May have a look at them for the next install (trying to get my parents into it, it’s a no-brainer for their situation).

  • I'm looking at solar right now and been quoted this (Victoria):

    Double story house, facing West.

    RACV

    31 x Trina Vertex S+ 415 W Mono Dual Glass Black Framed Panels (TSM-415NEG9.28)
    31 x Enphase IQ7A Micro Inverters (15 yr Warranty)
    1 x Enphase Envoy Dist. Board - Q3 single phase, 33-44 modules (outdoor)
    31 x Tin roof mounting kit with 10-15 degree tilt legs
    12.865 kW Solar Power system - Trina / Enphase
    Installation, Materials and Administration: $9,106.7
    STC rebate', based on 137 Certificates at $36 per Certificate -$4,932
    Total installed price $24,130

    Other quote (which I am considering)

    Panels (including quantity): 27 x 390W Hyundai solar panels HIE-S390UF 10.53KW PANELS
    Inverter: 1 X 10.KW Goodwe inverter GW10K-MS (AS4777-2 2020) with Wi-fi
    6 x Tigo Optimizers TS4-A-O for 6
    STC incentive 112 STC x $39 each $4368
    Total Price: $16900

    The second quote, just the panels and the inverter cost $10893. Add installation to that, say $2000, that amounts to around $13000. With that in mind, $17k doesn't seem that farfetched when you add cost of business and overheads.

    Also found this calculator online which might help: https://www.solarchoice.net.au/blog/solar-power-system-payba… and a better one: https://www.lgenergy.com.au/solar-calculators/solar-savings-…
    Not very accurate but hey, it's something.

    • Thanks for sharing. Massive system with good components, wish we had the capacity to do that, but maybe for the 'forever home'. I think you have fat regater capacity to generate a good return, especially with high usage. All the best with your installation!

    • $17k for 10kw is way too much, you can get 2x6.6kw systems by calling installers come over twice to do them and still have changes left.

    • Cool, definitely will do

  • After getting some more quotes I started doubting what I received in relation to the sun, shades and the output.

    For anyone looking to see how the trees affect your property and how the sun moves, here is a good free website: https://www.suncalc.org/#/-37.8509,145.2512,19/2022.03.23/17… you can change the time of the day on the top bar and the date and tree heights on the left-hand side.

    • That’s a pretty cool site, thanks for sharing. I do have some trees which will affect shading so will be using this to favour it in

  • Got mine done about 12 months ago. Went for the Enphase as it was the only system our local installer did.
    Pretty expensive for 13K. and 8.6KW but….
    I've had two other cheap solar installations. The installers disappeared immediately after installation. And installation was not done right. Was a 5KW system but only ever got 2.5KW worth of power and there was no one to fix.
    So I decided on getting a local business who had been around 10+ years.
    Also once panels are on, monitoring is not that good on most systems.
    The Enphase have inverters on every panel, so you can drill down to the panel level to see performance. Also as every panel has a micro inverter, then shading of one panel doesnt affect the whole string.
    I'm still not sure whether a bigger system would have been better, but I am happy with the Enphase installers and the monitoring I get with the Enphase.

    • Microinverter would be great , but very expensive. I think for your system though, given its size, it’s reasonable.

      You’ve reassured my that going for the local business who have been around for 10+ years and are working hard to stay around is the right choice, even for a few hundred extra.

  • +1

    Update (20/08/22): thanks so much for sharing all your experiences, thoughts and advice. Decided to pull the trigger. May not make a definite investment return, but I think it'll give us a bit more control over electricity in some ways, as well as doing our part for the environment. Installation will be late September. Cost ~$7300. Can't wait!

    • Glad to hear! Though remember that "installation date" and "day you can use the bloody thing" are usually a month or two apart. The installer needs to submit the paperwork to your energy provider who then need to enable bi-directional power flow on your property. If you turn it on before that, you'll actually be charged the usual kWh usage rate for any energy you generate as it will just look like usage.

      • Thanks for the heads up! Yeah, I forgot to factor that in. Hopefully no big delays

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