Why Tesla Cars Are Getting Cheaper When Others Are Getting Expensive?

AFR said that currently cars are expensive and the situation will continue to 2022.

Second-hand car prices have jumped 34 per cent on average in Australia since a year ago, and are up 10 per cent since the start of January. Moody’s Analytics senior economist Michael Brisson said on Thursday that even when supply of new cars built up again after a semiconductor shortage, high used car prices would persist well into calendar 2022 even though the rate of growth is now slowing.

Then I noticed that Tesla 3 deals are coming and coming and more are being shipped from Shanghai. Is it something special about EVs that is not affected by the global supply chain problem?

Should I sell my Holden Acadia while none-ev cars are expensive, and buy a Telsa?

Comments

    • @Krzytofferz - The other reason, is people at the upper end of car purchases expect some level of battery proportion, BEV, PHEV full EV etc.

      So they can recoup the cost of ICE components on the lower priced models as well. Manufactures are going to extract every bit of profit they can from ICE cars to recoup manufacturing and development costs. Once we transition to EV. Nobody will want an ICE assembly line etc.

  • +23

    Came for the BurnerToasty fanboy comments. Not disappointed.

    • -8

      Facts. Clearing up the FUD. Use your 5 a day how you see fit.

      • Funnily enough, haven’t used any today.

        • +6

          I just got here; Have they been responding to comments for 3+hrs defending Tesla? That's wild.

          • +4

            @Sleeqb7: Oh, it's not over yet… Here, have some complementary popcorn and Musk flavoured Kool-Aid…

            • @pegaxs: Lol… Fml

  • +6

    I don't have a personal opinion about Tesla, but I do like the fact that they're pushing the best technology in their industry.

    Tesla is doing what Apple did to Nokia, Sony, Motorola, Ericsson, Siemens and the rest of the 1990s has-been.

    They will with the right leadership and growth blockbuster every ICE brand on in a few years.

    "Gradually and then suddenly." - E.H

    • Only issue is apple was doing that with an extremely low valuation. They were valued at a pe ratio of 10 throughout early 2010 upto 15. While I appreciate the company that stock price is so crazy everything they do is priced in.

      • I can see TSLA 10x to 20x their price from here. They're basically changing the whole energy industry telling the rest of the pack "catch me if you can".

        They've already won the speed test.
        https://youtu.be/loUsRGW9z-I

        • Please share your assumptions and valuation

          • @Aqx666: $17,000 is possible in 2041.

            https://files.ozbargain.com.au/upload/393946/91845/screensho…

            This is based on the limited data that can change if the price breaks the trend.

            • @rektrading: This is not an analysis. This is what we call a bubble. Lol. A company is a business and each business is valued on its cash flows (or earnings if you are old school). By this logic amc or gme should be valued at 1million dollar per share of the price just keeps going up.

              • @Aqx666: No, the price of an asset is based on the trend.

                The chart shows TSLA that will continue in the channel touching resistance and support until it breaks the trend. Traders that think that they can beat the market by shorting TSLA will get rekt.

                All of these traders will get what's coming to them when WSB start pumping the stonk.
                https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TSLA/short-interest…

            • +1

              @rektrading: You know why it can't be 17000. Because it will be worth the entire s and p 500 if your logic persists. You are basically saying it will be worth 10 times more than apple at its current valuation (a company that already has its products in every country in the world). And tesla to fulfil that price tag would be making more money than the entire gdp of the United States of America. Jesus Christ mate technical analysis is good for short term trades but is not an actual valuation tool

              • @Aqx666: Mcap doesn't have anything to do with the price of an asset other than an indication of its imaginary value. Traders can't trade the Mcap. They can only trade the stonks that are available on the market.

                It's easy to manipulate the Mcap using the volume. TSLA has 990,015,000 stonks and a Mcap of $856,362,975,000.
                https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TSLA/short-interest…

                Now, burn 90% of the stonks, lock up 9% in a vault and allow traders to trade the 1%. The 1% stonks would push the price from $865 to 11x in a very short time.

                • @rektrading:

                  Now, burn 90% of the stonks, lock up 9% in a vault and allow traders to trade the 1%. The 1% stonks would push the price from $865 to 11x in a very short time.

                  …. yes, maintaining the market cap.

                  • @Mrgreenz: Lol. If you know what you have is valued significantly higher than you think it is you will sell. You will move heaven and earth to sell (lockup employee shares / institutional holdings etc). Tesla has a massive float. Market cap isn't imaginary it is all a mechanism of financing. What the overall market cap dictates is the level of liquidity in the market and for that stock. A higher s and p asx means more money in the market. For what you said to be true there has to be significantly higher liquidity to purchase at that higher price and at this point in time the entire world is already investing in America all the way from Australia to Pakistan India Middle East. There's only so much money out there to invest in nasdaq stocks. You say traders can take this up to unlimited levels well yes but than the can take it down to zero as well by that logic. Past performance means absolutely nothing when predicting over a long period of time. When I bought tesla and nvidia in 2018 they were dogshit stocks. It will be a dogshit stock again. Market works in cycles, nothing is forever popular.

                    • @Aqx666: I'm not sure what you are talking about tbh, but I think you are agreeing with me.

                      My comment was targeted at rekt, his own comment disproved his own thesis.

                      Market cap is what matters (broadly speaking, debt, cash and options etc muddy the waters though)

                      Market cap is the value a entity is paying (or a %age premium when they launch a takeover)

                      Basically what it costs to buy a buisness.

                      • @Mrgreenz: Yeah I was replying to rekt… I guess if he continues like this that what his portfolio will be in a years time… absolutely rekt

      • While I appreciate the company that stock price is so crazy everything they do is priced in.

        I can see why someone might think that if they don't have a deep understanding of the company or the accounting/finances behind it.

        2020 P/E was 1000

        P/E today has dropped to ~100, on a higher share price. Don't value the company on it's EBITDA earnings at one point in time.

        • +1

          I am valuing using dcf with a 50% growth rate upto 2030 and with a terminal pe ratio of 25 (in line with apple). By my numbers they will be the biggest car manufacturer by a wide margin with 35% profit margin. Stock calculator still shows me price of 1k. All the price growth is being brought forward significantly

          • @Aqx666: Sounds good. How about product lines and services outside of selling passenger vehicles?

            • @idjces: Mate I said they will grow 50% every year for 10 years. If that isn't ridiculously optimistic I don't know what is. The only reason why I get 1k and cathie Wood has a higher value of 2k is because she gives a terminal pe of 60 which is ridiculous given that assumption means tesla will still be the most exciting stock 10 years from now which is obviously bs because tesla not the most exciting stock this year (moderna, nvidia have significantly outperformed and had more attention).
              But hey if you think 2k is a good pt for holding for the next 5 to 10 years more power to you. I love the company and they have some of the best cars but they do attract alot of inexperienced investors who don't know about sentiment and valuation and just let price action validate their decisions.

              • @Aqx666: I'm saying I think that point is where you (and most for that matter), differ from the Tesla Bulls.

                Tesla won't be a car company 10-20 years in the future. Passenger vehicles will be a far smaller portion of their revenue by that point. Much like Disney is more than theme parks, Apple is more than the iPhone.

                Sure, there's other very interesting stocks out there. It's kind of difficult to value stocks over short time periods, based on current changes in sentiment.

                • @idjces: I am valuing it as a software hardware hybrid company with 35% margin (like apple). Car companies have 5 to 10% margin. I'm a tesla fan but I also know that enthusiasm isn't forever and when this hits 1k I'm out. Its a process though and if your process is to buy and hold forever that is fine too but if you go headlong into anything without an exit plan then it's not a much of a process and more just hopium really.

  • +3

    My $15k 2018 Kia does everything a Tesla does.
    It can be dumped on the nature strip in 10 years when EV prices and range normalise.

    Servicing/registration/insurance $40 week total

    • +2

      A 2018 electric Kia for $15k? You got lucky, even if you do have to be seen driving a Kia.

      • +2

        Most people use their car to get from a to b, and don't care too much about what it runs on or the sticker on the front

        • -1

          You do. You're not most people. Cars are a status symbol for a lot of people, their second most expensive purchase after their house, and then for a lot of other people, they are a passion. People who buy cars 'to get from A to B' are the people who buy pieces of junk from Kia and Hyundai, and think they are amazing. Good for them.

          • +1

            @[Deactivated]: So are you saying Kia and Hyundai wont provide adequate transportation for 7-10 years?

            • -5

              @SummerZero: I'm saying you don't understand most people.

              • +2

                @[Deactivated]: You said they're junk, so I just wanted to clear up whether you think they're adequate transportation. Are Kia and Hyundai junk as you said earlier, or are they adequate transportation?

                I figure if they were junk people wouldn't keep buying them.

              • +5

                @[Deactivated]: If most people were ‘into cars’ and treated then as a status symbol there wouldn’t be hundreds of thousands of old bog stock econoboxes on our roads. For most people cars are just an expensive tool.

                You need to widen your perspective away from your own circles.

          • +3

            @[Deactivated]:

            1. Just curious, are you Asian? (not related to this OP what so ever).

            2. I like cars, as toys, but didnt rule out the G70/Stinger… So.. A piece of junk is grossly unfair.

            3. Pretty sad that a car is the second most expensive purchase after a house if that person is paying $65+k for a car. Seems like he/she has got the priority mixed up somewhere.

  • -2

    Musk is simply a front. It is the US govt that is behind the production of all his supposed innovations. The CIA created Andy Warhol, and the "drunkard" Jackson Pollock. To counter the British Invasion… the Beatles, the CIA created the Monkeys. Musk, as the Marionette puppet, moves to hamper the likes of China. Hence, to answer your question, the product is being heavily subsidised by the CIA/ aka US govt.

    • Don't know if serious ..

    • the CIA created the Monkeys

      The I really doesn't stand for Intelligence after all…

      • And there's me think it was billions of years of evolution.

        Silly me.

    • +2

      This is a great shitpost

  • +1

    I was an adopter of new vehicle technology when I bought a Mazda R100 (Rotary Engine) A huge mistake.

    • +6

      EVs are well past the early adopter stage.

      1. They've been around for over a hundred years now technically
      2. We're currently in gen 2 and on the verge of gen 3 stage of current EV model advancement.
      3. The current lithium ion technology is well understood and widely used worldwide. It's only in Australia and other third world countries that haven't adopted them due to fossil fuels influencing their blockage.
      • Toyota made a couple hundred EVs in the late nineteens IIRC (US market) not the same battery tech but yeh. Wait for hydrogen to upscale at end of decade.

        • +2

          I think hydrogen has its benefits over batteries. But I think car owners are over being slaves to the bowser and fluctuating prices they don't control.

          Personally, I think this will influence the market decision in which technology will overtake as the leader.

        • General Motors did, the EV1, not Toyota. Then they crushed them all. Hydrogen is never going to happen for cars em mass. The maths doesn't work. The cars don't have a range advantage, they have a massive power and packaging disadvantage, a cost disadvantage, and the process of making hydrogen (en mass) isn't through electrolysis, its through petrochemicals. Might as well be using petrol. Also, the energy alone used to compress the hydrogen would fill up an EV battery. Basically, for every 100km an EV drives, net, a Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is 2-3times less efficient.

          It would work for heavy haulage though, it's a real pity that Nikola decided to piss in that pool and ruin it for everyone.

      • EV's are easy. As you say, 100 year old technology. Cheap, high capacity, portable batteries and fast charging are the hard parts.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apoeGMWF17c
        This bloke turned a 72 Datsun into a sub ten second electric drag racer ten years ago.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7vTCK9ywBA
        these guys can now make a 1000 horsepower road legal version, with your own donor car for somewhere between $100k-$150k and still have a range of 150 miles.

    • only 100k+ for a clean example now. Good HODL

  • +6

    Tesla's model was always to get cheaper as more customers came on board and more people took on EV as their choice of car.

    They were low volume to start with and thanks to early adopters who paid the higher price than most people normally would for a vehicle, now they have the base security to increase production. With increased production comes more streamlined manufacturing and cheaper costs.

    EV's are still around $25kaud more expensive than the equivalent ICE car in Australia which puts many people off. The difference is not that big in European countries and in the USA. I don't know why, perhaps demand is low due to lack of benefits.

    Aus is extremely behind with EVs thanks to politicians attacking them (scomo claiming EVs will ruin the weekend) and refusing to adopt benefits to purchasing them. Now there are a tonne of new models which aus won't get because companies don't want to invest in our backwards country.

    • +1

      backwards country

      And yet people from all over the world want to live here?

      • +5

        With regards to renewables and future proofing the country. We have been going backwards compared to other countries.

        • +1

          Changing. AU is building alot of solar/wind farms. Will take time.

        • How’s that working out for countries like the UK?

          • @Danstar: eg. The Dog House UK - filmed in Godmanchester with a giant wind turbine next door, and fan blade shadows in the backyard every 3 secs.
            Like that's an improvement to one's life from petrol.

      • And companies want to invest in

  • +7

    IMO, Tesla Model 3 looks beautiful on the outside, especially with large rims.

    Inside it also looks good too, but it's too minimalist at the sacrifice of functionality.
    I like having some physical buttons & dials.

    It doesn't have a heads-up display, and the reverse camera parking is poor compared to much cheaper cars.

    I'm also a fan of Android Auto, and I don't want to be tied into the Tesla ecosystem and have to pay a monthly fee for internet connectivity when I can just use my phone on most other cars.

    The list of compromises goes on and on…

    So no, I wouldn't recommend buying a Tesla. Wait a yr or two and you'll have plenty of other options.

    • I find android auto and carplay are very hit and miss at the moment. When it works, it's great, but it has so many issues.

      • I think it might depend on the car and/or phone.

        Had a $$ car and it was flakey. In our much cheaper Kia, it's rock solid.

  • +1

    Tesla's also hold their value much better than the competition.

    You might get a cheaper buy price initially but when it comes time to sell, the value of them will have held up much higher due to the demand for them

  • +3

    I just want to be able to drive from Perth to Exmouth in a day, only having to stop twice for a maximum of 15 mins each time to 'refuel'.
    Be able to drive offroad, on hard dirt tracks, uphill and downhill for 300kms round trip without having to worry about 'fuel' with at least 25% in reserve.
    Drive on the beach (and through water somethimes).
    Not worry about complex electronics breaking down.
    If I can't get to a 'refuelling' point, having the ability to get refuelled remotely.
    Being able to have the AC on icy cold on hot days for hours on end and not worry about its effect on range.

    My Australia basically.

    Give me that in an EV and I'll sign up the same day.

    • +1

      I have a 4×4 for exactly this. There's no EV in Australia that can replace it (although the Rivian that just went on sale in the US could). But you'd be an absolute idiot to drive your 4×4 through the water on the beach, unless 4×4 is how many holes you want to rust through your chassis.

      • +1

        I agree. I was referring to being able to cross a ford or river.

        The Rivian looks good on paper but it's yet to be seen if it's reliable and can take some punishment

        • I suggest you look up the MotorTrend trans-America journey in the Rivian then. Reliability should be fine given its an EV, and it's certainly tough as nails from what I read and watched from MotorTrend.

          • @[Deactivated]: The Rivian definitely looks good but it starts at USD68k (AUD90) in the US, so you can add at least 50% on that for Autralian price - $150k at least plus options. Far too expensive for a ute. I really think we'll get there with off road EVs but it will probably be towards the end of the decade.

            I really want to get an EV (road use only) but right now, and for the next 5 years the tech/pricing is not right.

            • @R4: $150k is no more expensive than a high end Landcruiser. And the Rivian is a lot better than a Landcruiser at most things.

              • +2

                @[Deactivated]: Sure, but I'd never spend $150k on a Landcruiser - any car really. It's far too much - I really cannot see the point of that. For $50k max, you'd get something diesel that would eat the TAT for breakfast - and then some.

                I'm not trying to be down on EVs - I really want one, one day, but right now the tech/price equation is not there - they are essentially wealthy people toys. The ironic thing is that they attract government money all over the world in order to drive up ownership - which is essentially taxpayer subsidies for the wealthy - paid for in part by people who could never afford an EV. Economcs 101 shows us that apart from a few exceptions, subsidies are a bad thing and EVs are not that exception. A mental state of affairs.

                2030 will be where it's at.

                I just wanted to add that Americans know sh1t all about offroading - and that video showed it.

              • @[Deactivated]: what is it better at? and what fourby do you have?

    • You are an edge-case and not the norm though. Most cars have complex electronics breaking down these days.

  • +6

    My initial reservation with EVs was "Oh they have a range of 300? I drive way more than that in a week!"

    But then I realised that I never drive 300km in a day, and I would be charging between days, like a phone. Phone batteries dont last a week, but we always have enough batt for the day.

    Will definitely be buying EV as my next car in 5 years or so (Just got a prado though and hello $1.80 fuel -_-)

    • You can charge your phone overnight, and in the car while you drive… And you usually have a charger in your bag just in case…

      You still can charge your EV overnight if you are home, but not while you drive, and you can't have a charger in your bag just in case…

      I'm waiting for a better EV..

      • Why can't you charge at your destination? (Or any of the charging points along the way?)

        • +2

          Finally arrive at you friends house for a dinner party.
          "Oh, do you mind if I plug my car in to your electricity so I can drive home afterwards ? It may take a while so I've bought my overnight bag along".

          • +4

            @MITM: To be fair, if I was driving 150km+ to a dinner party, I'd probably want to be staying the night anyway.

          • +1

            @MITM: This is an imaginary scenario

      • Im waiting for better energy storage breakthroughs likely with batteries, imma be waiting a while.

        • What kind of better? They’re already pretty well suited to cars. you can already get 80% charge in 20min. You can fit 400km range in a medium sedan. They cope with lots of charge cycles. They are recyclable.

          Energy density, lifespan and charge capacity will of course improve over time but it’s not terrible right now.

      • +1

        How often are you driving more than 300k's in a day?

        • Not often, but that's something I can do with my car. It's not only about driving 300km a day…

          Yes, if I have a charger at home, that'd be fine to just drive to and from work and make sure the car is charged when I need it.

          However, if I travel from A to B and that's more than 300km, I have to plan long stops and park at the charging point to make sure I can keep driving next day. That's a hassle. Not the end of the world, probably feasible, but it's annoying and something else to think about.

          We can't compare how practical it is to stop at a petrol station, refill in 3 minutes, and keep driving for 600km.

          I like the idea of EV and I hope there are stations everywhere and better autonomy, and faster charging, but that's not practical now.

          • @this is us: Yeah thats fair enough. I can see why people who drive long distances might find it a hastle. They could still do it though.

            As for most people who just do a typical daily drive, an EV will be sweet!

  • +6

    In what world is a 60k car cheap

    • cheaper relative to its previous price.

    • +1

      I also think a $2k iphone to be expensive. I guess it's not for everyone.

    • OzBargain World. You have no idea how many people thinks buying a $60k car is a bargain (then you need to get 10kw of panels to charge it) so you can save like $1.5k a year in fuel costs.

    • look at all the euro brand EVs selling for 150k+

      what a bargain! :P

  • +1

    Rivian

    • Emme Hall swears by them.
      Once she lends it to George Hotz you can make it drive by itself!

  • +1

    Watch governments, big oil and Toyota push for hydrogen to control supply and collect hydrogen tax. They hate evs

    • +1

      There isn't one single solution to climate change or energy crisis. Think about how 10 years ago they thought gas was one of the bridging technologies. That seems also to be a problem.

      Hydrogen only economy would be like ethanol.

      If emphasis is on consumption and ever more consumption (and population growth) then we're stuffed.

      It is also the reason why Elon Musk believe the future is on Mars (he calls it plan B but really it is plan A for growing the economy). Earth can't sustain the amount of people with ever increasing demand on resources.

      To live a decent lifestyle population of around 4bn, where everything is recycled etc would be required but rich people don't want to run out of poor people to take money off.

      • +1

        Mars … Lol.
        Comes with complimentary radiation poinsioning, inhospitable temperatures and atmosphere, food/water scarcity, social isolation and eventual death. Only 6999999 for a one way ticket.

        • You know Elon only organises the logistics. He doesn't take responsibility if you live or die. Don't worry there will be plenty of early adopters.

          • +1

            @netjock: Yea and a perfect example of why he is a clown. From exploitation of workers, crazy kid names, flights to Mars and whatever that Aritifical intelligence dude dressed in a costume was.

            • +1

              @pompompom: Elon is the ultimate meme. Most likely the first trillionaire. His fan club is pretty funny. Poor chaps getting hustled without knowing it.

      • fed libnats still thinks gas is the way lmao. thanks scomo…and conservative voters

        • -2

          Yeah. And greenies/labor voters thinks windmills and solar panels are the way. Yet have no thought about the cost, the viability and how and where batteries / solar panels will be dumped when They’re at end of life.

    • I know, the concept of free energy available to all that isn't geopolitically controlled must keep them up all night. And I am here for that.

  • -1

    Rumbling into a Tesla 3 and notice it has pro boost mode, simply upgrading via software costs more…

    Given the me generation people will put their loan deposit into it for feeling left out.

    • +2

      English in here bro.

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