If Someone Posted on a Forum Claiming to Have a $45m Crypto Portfolio, Would You Believe Them?

Strictly hypothetically of course. But let's say someone made this wild claim whilst refusing to provide any evidence whatsoever. Would it likely be the truth in your opinion?

Particularly when you consider that anyone inclined to post such a thing must be craving the attention and approval of his/her forum peers.

It's trivial to prove that you control a Bitcoin address, so if you happen to control an address holding a large sum of Bitcoin, then it would be very simple to provide some evidence to back such a portfolio claim.

EDIT:
Fellow ozbargain member "cloudy" wrote a great post highlighting the logical gymnastics required to make these claims credible:

https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/615103#comment-10302391

Poll Options expired

  • 65
    Yes
  • 458
    No

Comments

    • +1

      Ozbargainers buying up crypto isn't going to make any difference to the price.

      The cryptocurrency market is worth over 2 trillion dollars now.

      • How did it reach 2 trillion dollars? By people sharing their stories and convincing others, it is an excellent investment. It has a network effect, so maybe Ozbargainers will not influence the price directly, but if they keep propagating this meme, they will eventually.

  • +1

    Why do you care?

    If the bitcoiner is on $45m having bought 900 dogecoins or cryptokitties or whatever nonsense token way back when and is living large? Or if they're making it all up and living a life of delusion how does it affect you? Serious question.

    I saw the thread and didn't bother reading it, but can understand why it attracted a lot of interest. People want to make a lot of money without doing anything. Which is pointless given they'll just waste it on enelopps.

    Of course, investors in niche investments always need to spend time pumping up interest to maintain the value of their investments. So there's that. That could potentially grind my gears.

    • +2

      I only care in the tangential sense that I was mildly surprised at the apparent level of credulity among the OzB community.

      But this thread has revealed that it was probably a selection bias issue; the only people bothering to comment were those who believed it all.

      • Given bitcoin's value is based on the willingness of people to pay for it, whether they believe in it it or not, it shouldn't be too surprising that there are people who are willing to believe in it's value proposition and want to read about someone else's success.

        I haven't read the other thread. But it's also possible to doubt the utility and long term value of bitcoin, but also accept that some people have and will continue to make obscene amounts of money from it.

        • +1

          bitcoin's value is based on the willingness of people to pay for it

          again can say same about money

          • +2

            @bargain huntress: Absolutely. All currency is somewhat arbitrary (cowrie shells, dollars, pieces of eight, gold, bitcoins).

            Some are better at some things than others.

  • +1

    Maybe he's lying, maybe he's not. Who cares though, from what I saw he was just answering people's questions. The fact is there are many people that made a fortune from crypto. You're missing the big picture and looking very petty

    • Or maybe the previous post was to try and stir up more interest into BTC so that he/she can get richer and dump their BTC holdings.

  • +3

    I remember when there were forum posts that claimed you could revive Aerith, ends up they were lying.

  • +1

    $45m today. Can be $0 tomorrow

  • +1

    Who Cares?

    • +1

      Apparently enough people to get a useful barometer from the poll.

  • -1

    Crypto is all just fools gold. So yes I believe them because the whole thing is a joke.

  • -2

    Crypto is just like the tulip mania of old. Itโ€™s only worth what someone is willing to pay. If enough silly people are willing to pay something for a ransom number in a ledger then it has some value. If nobody is willing to pay anything for it then it has no value. I suspect that eventually crypto will fall in price enough that enough people will get burned and something new and shiny will take its place.

  • +2

    If a twelve year old on Xbox Live claimed to have had intimate relations with your mother, would you believe them? Would you post on Ozbargain about it?

    • Oh I'd most definitely posting on ozbargain about it regardless of whether I believed them!

  • if some random person you just met at the pub or a party proactively told you that they have a $45m portfolio in whatever, would you believe them?

    • +2

      only if they told me the last party we went to they were looking at fixing their 5yr old tv.

  • That's a sweet "honey pot" for a hacker etc…

  • +1

    Good 'ol paper valuations of wealth … worthless.
    I may utterly hate the whole ponzi scheme of property investment speculation but at least you can live in a house even if it's "worth" nothing.

    Still my first overarching thought is "who cares?"
    Don't know if they have that much, but I do know they have issues of another kind if they feel the need to post it.

  • anyone inclined to post such a thing must be craving the attention

    Well, yeah, you got it all figured out already.

  • -2

    What we should ask ourselves is if there's any harm in believing them?

    The online environment can be so toxic because many people choose to be negative, vindictive, or simply mistrustful upon 1st contact. We find the people who promote thicker skins and free speech are often the loudest at burning down any whose voice is different. Short of it is this: Be it truth or lie, so long as that person isn't using what they say to cause harm then why not believe first and save any suspicion for when it's required.

    • +5

      Yes, there is harm in believing people, especially with assets like Bitcoin. The poster could be trying to pump the value of the asset by encouraging more investment from novice investors, then selling out. When the price corrects, the novice investors lose out.

      Unless you're Elon Musk, I doubt it's easy to move the price of Bitcoin, but there's plenty of smaller coins that can be pumped and dumped.

      • You're suggesting a person can't believe what's said while fact checking with their own research? If this was the case then how do we get such great OzBargain deals on things like Youtube Premium or Xbox Ultimate pass. CashRewards fails more often than it works yet the posters are constantly getting top upvotes, I've certainly lost more money through that scam then I have listening to peoples chatter on forums.

        As I said: "so long as that person isn't using what they say to cause harm then why not believe first and save any suspicion for when it's required".

        In fact it looks like someone's proved my point already by downvoting my comment.

        • so long as that person isn't using what they say to cause harm

          This is where the problem is. If it was easy to see the bad actors this makes sense. But we can't, we don't know if people are acting in good faith

          • @Bren20: Nor do you know if they're acting in bad faith so taking a negative stance is the fastest way to destroy any means of working that out. This is the internet, intuition is always our friend here.

            • @Ebany: I disagree on you with this strongly. intuition is rubbish. We have financial regulation for a reason.

      • +1

        If he influences others, they might influence others, and so forth, suddenly, you have thousands of new people coming in, and it all started with one guy sharing his success story.

        • +1

          So we shouldn't share our success stories lest it inspire those around us?

          • +1

            @Ebany: If it resembles a Ponzi scheme, then no.

            All these crypto holders need to be early and convince others it is a great investment, so they get 10x returns.

  • +1

    Does it matter? I did find value in discussing crypto which I find interesting. Truth or lie; really don't care too much.

  • +2

    45m is not that hard to believe. This guy made over 1m in a day. https://twitter.com/CryptoKaleo/status/1378847289901481985?sโ€ฆ

    • -3

      ill spell it for you "Ponzi Scheme"

      the more people they attract and con into buying crypto the more the market booms - hence why there are so many "crypto experts" on social media who just talk about graph shape, candle sticks, arbitrary peaks and troughs and other bullshit like that

      Crypto doesn't boom on fundamentals and deliverables………because there arnt any…….or arnt any yet, people are feeding money into "promise products", they claim something good will happen, one day, sometime, in the future…….or never……. who knows

      • +3

        There are definitely fundamentals with mass adoption with transactions with real life usage. Vechain is a great example where walmart has adopted it into their logistics to avoid counterfeits worldwide. Dozens of partnerships already taken place to prove its concept and is ofcourse ongoing.

        There are plenty of examples and all coins have their own reasons or usage. Some have no purpose hence are called $hitcoins.

        Big banks and big institution are adopting this for a reason. Adapt or be left behind.

        P. S I have read your comment history and it seems you are really closed minded and negative on all post related to financials or economics. These people always become late adopters of new things.

        Reminds me of 2017 when the same people called btc a scam and now only deciding to buy in 2021 at 20x the cost.

        Dont worry your time will come 2030

        • I am glad you have wasted your time reading my previous reviews, hope it made you feel better

      • You can say similar about the sharemarket that is a ponzi scheme as in the sharemarket the brokers can all start to say buy this company and it would drive up the share market.

      • +2

        You know what the real Ponzi scheme we've all fallen for is?

        The fractional reserve banking system. There are your fundamentals. The banks don't really have enough money.

  • +4

    I believe him. I'm not up anywhere as much as he is but a decent amount for a nice house - and I only got in last year.

    • +6

      Point is not to believe me or not.

      It's supposed to be a red pill, just a nudge for people to research, open their eyes and minds, that's all.

      Most people against cryptocurrencies, have no understanding of it, that's bad. If you are against it, at least be informed about it.

  • Would u believe me if I shared a screenshot of my portfolio? :)
    https://imgur.com/YX2osbf

    • Thank you for your donation

    • oldest trick in the Indian scammer handbook - alter the webcode

  • Yes, because the type who speculate on crypto are l33t haxorz who crave attention. They'll HODL forever and never realise their gains anyway.

  • +2

    Why would anyone with that much wealth bother with OZB.

  • -2

    My lord, this guy really got into your head didn't he? Here's a tip that may change your life today. research Bitcoin Cash. It is where Bitcoin was back in 2013 in terms of adoption. I know, I was there and believed in Bitcoin too and did pretty good. look at the history behind the split, and wonder why the price is so low today. then think about what the future price will be once everyone starts realizing it's bitcoin but way better. seriously, take the time and read up on it. There's a massive opportunity to go back to 2013 and buy in again cheap with this coin. If you do this, and i'm right, you'll be financially set.

    • +3

      The OP is salty he didn't get on the right train to grow his wealth haha.

      I don't agree with Bitcoin cash because I don't believe Bitcoin should be a currency, we shouldn't be using it to buy coffee and other goods and services.

  • If this was whirlpool the bullshit artist would have 90million in bitcoin

  • +5

    Nice thread. I voted no.

    Also, if you only have one single Bitcoin address, you ain't doing it right. And I'm not revealing my Bitcoin addresses, that's not the point of my thread.

    The point was to start a conversation about cryptocurrencies and it's place in society. I offered my own personal story as an example, I could have used others, like the FB twins, the family who sold all their possessions to buy Bitcoin (they are definitely laughing now at all the naysayers)

    It's also to encourage folks to open their mind and do some research before making up their minds. My personal story wasn't the main point of my thread, it doesn't matter if you believe my story or not.

    For the record, for someone who started in crypto in 2013 and haven't sold, $45 mil is actually not much. I could have made alot more in hindsight.

    If you bought $500 worth of Bitcoin every single month from 1st August 2013 till now, you would have spent $46,500 and have 68.2537 BTC worth over $4 mil today (all in USD). That's only Bitcoin, Alts not included, and some have done alot better than Bitcoin for limited periods.

    • +1

      We get it. You're a whale and you're happy. Go enjoy your money.

      • I'm no whale. I think whales are over $100 mil.

        I also want folks to be more financially literate. Open minded and critically think based on a diverse range of sources.

        • +1

          OP is a shark. 500 to 1k btc

  • Here's mine :

    1GazAV6MARqEVxQMyksMpyRDgTo29CQPhx

    Doesn't prove anything….

    • +5

      Exactly lol, I can find a whale address and say that's mine. Don't see the point of that.

    • Just checked the address, wow 600BTC!

      Don't spend it all at once haha

    • Can I use this as my password? ๐Ÿ™‚

  • +3

    Imagine being anonymous on the internet and being so affected by someone anonymous posting something else on the internet, where they have to start a poll to see if other anonymous people believe in said anonymous post

  • -2

    pretty simple - anyone who has 'invested' in bitcoin, has something to gain from others also investing…

    • +3

      Just as simple as someone "investing" in property has something to gain from others also borrowing large amounts of money to also "investing" in it.

      You can say the same thing about any investment product or asset.

    • Bitcoin is evil!!

  • +1

    Even if it's real, they don't have any obligations to show proof to random idiots on internet just for the sake of satisfying their question.

    If I had 45 mil Bitcoin portfolio, I wouldn't even post a single digit for privacy reasons and the huge amount concerned around it.

  • +1

    lmao OP bitter he didnt buy btc at $100

  • +2

    FWIW, $45m in crypto is not as huge of an amount as you may think. Plenty of HODLers that got in pre 2018 are sitting on similar amounts if not significantly more.

    There are so many vastly wealthy people in the world at present…

    • there really isn't, do some googling and you will find that the average Australia ranks supremely highly with regards to wealth

      ~47million, millionaires in the world, with ~7.7billion people in the world. that's 0.06% of people in the world are millionaires - pretty tiny

      • +1

        Obviously insignificant if you take into account 3 world and developing nations

        Also where do these stats come from? Are they current as of the past 12 months where pretty much every asset class has been sky rocketing?

        Most people who are genuinely wealthy would automatically be finding ways to hide or distribute their wealth to reduce tax alone. "Rich lists" are a good example. I personally know over a dozen self made $100m - $500m net worth individuals under 40 years old in Australia that are not "listed" or flaunt their wealth publicly (very silly to do so in my opinion).

        In any case, 47 million declared millionaires across the globe IS significant, if you take into account that most of these are concentrated into very small pockets geographically.

  • +2

    yes i would, anyone who does not are probably salty that some basement neckbeard could be holding that much bitcoin dough somewhere,

  • The point of the thread was not to flex on a quantum. You've had to comb through the whole thread to find that.

    A bigger question is what is the point of this thread?

  • I'm only here on Ozbargain to take advantage of bargains or post them up.

    It's garbage threads like this and non stop bitching in the comments that just reminds me what's the point of even having forums here?

    • +1

      Half of the top forum threads seems like well crafted troll/market research posts. Perfect bait titles, somewhat plausible explanation regarding a weird incident and a hot topic is the recipe.

      • Exactly. I feel like I drop 5 points of IQ each time I am sucked into reading the forums.

  • -1

    He can easily prove it by linking his wallet and moving a very small amount we specified to a specific address, eg 123 satoshis or something.

    In saying that I do believe OP of the other post.

  • Once upon a time I would say no, but seeing the sheer volume of money going through cryptos of late (though the ledger), I have no reason not to.

  • +3

    If you seen how some cryptos are going you will be surprised. One token is doing especially well is Safemoon and there are number of aussies who now hold a small fortune. I was a week late but my $500 investment is now $50k and to prove the doubters that it is not a scam I took 1k out which I regret as I believe Safemoon will be very successful it has a great team and great followers behind them in reddit. I also believed it is a scam but after doing lot of research they are turning into companies and will have a successful future. Of course there is scams out there and I got scammed but my fault for not doing thorough research.

    • You turned $500 into $50k?

      That makes me so sad :(

      And that was 3 weeks ago? That must be worth millions now :(

      I mean good for you, but I think I will forever miss out

  • +1

    How do you know someone owns/invests in crypto?

    Theyโ€™ll tell you.

    Crypto owners are like vegans and Tesla owners, their way is the only way!

    • +4

      Okay, but what if I'm a vegan Crossfitter who bought a Tesla with my crypto gains. I can't fit all that in one conversation, surely!

      • +2

        You'd need a special T-shirt.

      • +3

        You forgot your air fryer

    • This is the way.

  • +1

    I know people with amounts in the 10s of millions so yes I would believe them

  • +6

    To anyone saying he wasn't persuading anyone to invest. The title of the post was "Your key to financial freedom" and is all you need to understand the motives. He goes on and makes extremely biased, sale gimmicky statements about Crypto, all the while bragging about his portfolio and saying do your own research and I am not persuading. This is a selling technique in itself… YouTubers / Influencers use it all the time.

    • Do your research or do you DD is quite common in the stock market and real estate market too. Because no one is actually financial advisors, there must be a disclaimer. People are easy to blame people if the market takes a small dip. I think its quite important disclaimer, mostly when advising your friends or family members.

      Investing is definitely an emotional ride and people are quick to blame when things take a different turn. I myself even get blame someone or something for investing advice even with the disclaimer and made a serious note that this wasnt financial advice. Then they come back when the market changes asking more advice which nowadays i just turn people away.

      Another important one is dont invest more than you can afford to lose because once again. People have the inability to control their fomo and invest in way too much that disrupts their quality of life if turn sour.

      I would definitely disagree when you say he was trying to sell something. Crypto is worldwide and the Australia market is minuscule. If every ozbargainer put half their savings in, then still It would barely make a dent in the price. I would think his just trying to let Australians know about this and dont be late adopters like all things.

      • +2

        I honestly doubt that there are people who are unaware of Crypto after it's been blasted around the news for years now and would find about it on ozbargain of all places for the first time.

        All I am saying is if someone creates a forum topic labelled :
        Your key to financial freedom.
        I made xxx million dollars investing in crypto.
        Crypto is the future and everything else in he world is trash including property, companies, gold etc.

        Followed by
        Do you own research and I am not providing financial advise.

        Then the later doesn't mean much. It's a sales gimmick similar to the "single mum makes 100k at home doing xyz" adds. If people invest or not and lose money is not the point. OP wouldn't be liable for any loses either way. It's about building the momentum and changing opinions and definitely is not the only thing he has done to show his support for crypto. Sure by itself it doesn't make a dent but combined small things like these always make a dent.

        • What is the correct approach then?

          Is a better way, "i made 45million. Do no due diligence or research yourself. Here is my bank statement"

          I am 99.99% sure. Someone that says do your own research is not a deal breaker for you.

          Its almost like a successful hand watch sales man or car sales man says their career can make you rich and someone opens their own store front that fails months later because they didnt research the brands that sell.

          People suggest investment options in life and all carries certain risk. If you think everything is a sure thing then you are in for some life lessons.

          As for your statement that the OP isnt liable for losses. He could certainly can be. You must've have missed the ICO craze where big youtubers with huge influence were spawning out of no where and were doing many videos for certain coins. Some of them got attached to the companies class lawsuit in the US. These individuals werent even part of the companies team but were just encouraging people to buy it. Some were very honest and did not know they were part of a scam ring.Some loss everything (Bitconnect. Onecoin etc.)

          Now if these same people made videos with a disclaimer everytime. They would have much more protection. Similarly like medical advice youtubers who say seek professional medical advice. Will you simply not believe them because they say seek professional advice just so no one sues them?

          Not all things in life are scams but definitely are some people out there with bad intentions.

          • @aerona: The better approach is… You make 45 million and you don't go on bargain forums and tell people that you made 45 million and implicitly suggest ppl invest in crypto by trying to be deceptive. Simples. There are other avenues for professional and financial advise whatever. A bargain forum is not one of them.

            Also Bitcoin/Crypto is not a company and neither is the user techlead publicly associated with any therefore the same rules do not apply. You wouldnt even ever know who techlead is less be able to implicate him for advice or be able to know if he has 45 mill of crypto to his name. And to add, it's a misconception that adding a disclaimer protects you from all legal action and misconduct. It does not.

            • @earth worm jim: I see so, the only financial advice you would consider is someone who has a professional career as a financial advisor. That is fair enough.

              I would be very interested how much you understand about crypto. How far you looked into it

              • +1

                @aerona: To the extent that I worked on it as an application for a blockchain based e-voting system. But the issue is not the technical aspect of it.
                And sure .. best financial advice is it to seek it from a professional and no professional will advise you to invest in bitcoin. Unfortunately a lot of us don't get to see how much ppl lost in crypto. With high volatility comes high risk so invest at your own risk and without a bias from posts on bargain forums claiming multi million fortunes with no proof.

                • @earth worm jim: So you worked on governance system on certain coins says you are quite experience than the normal person. I thought you were someone who never looked into anything technical which I thought was just super bias or maybe bitter for not knowing earlier or something.Thanks for the reply

  • so OP how many BTC did you buy since techlead posted?

  • investing is like gambling these days …

    • Instead of losing $100K in a casino I can say I lost it in an investment ๐Ÿ˜‚

      • yep and enjoy the emotional ride in the comfort of your own delusions.

  • 45m maybe not, 1-5 yes
    I know plenty of people were mining very early on, must be a few early miners around that didn't cash out

  • money is like fairies

    it only has value because enough people believe in it

    "i believe i believe" clap three times

    i don't see why you should expect cryptocurrency to be any different

    i also don't see why i should believe or disbelieve whether a person is rich or not based on them telling me on the internet

    donald trump has told me he is a billionaire a thousand times on the internet

  • +1

    This isn't really a hypothetical, is it OP? Why don't you post a link to his boasts?

  • Yes, I always instantly believe everything anybody says on the internet. Pretty much 100% of what I read is 100% fact.

  • Well is that person you? If so…

    Hey OP it's me your brother

  • Well, 45 million Americans believe in or have a favourable view of Qanon, just believing some insane crap they read on the net one day. So you even asking this like it could be a possibility?… Please stay off reddit.

  • To be fair, cut him some slack. Anyone who had invested at that time would be a multimillionaire.
    IMHO, it is in the realms of reality, so I would absolutely trust what is posted.

  • Dude, who gives a shit, if it makes them feel better about themselves then so be it.

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