What Shares Will Go up in May?

evgpek on 02/05/2018 - 10:20
Last edited 05/05/2018 - 09:41 by 1 other user

I just used IG 10000 Qantas Point campaign for opening share trade account.

I need to buy some shares for just $450.

What shares should I buy for short term investment?

Great ideas keep them coming I will let you know what I will invest in tonight!

Update

So I went with AMP let’s see how it goes in 30 days!

they went down so dramatically i reckon that some shareholders have over reacted. I hope that it will recover at least 10% in one month, which is good for short term investment. (Could be Better than bitcoin).

Thank you all for discussion 😅

Financial

Comments

      • cloudy on 05/05/2018 - 10:00

        Yea, I used to believe everything is reflected in the share price and since that’s the case one could make the argument that all shares are fairly priced. Infect that’s the basis of the effienct market hypothesis. Nobel prize winner stuff there.

        If that’s the case the argument can be made no outsized returns are possible and the only investment one should make is in index funds, also a solid argument. Buffett recently recommended so himself.

        But if happen to think markets are less rational than that. So I pick stocks.

        I didn’t say they have a monopoly, i said they have more stores than anyone by miles and buying power naturally ensures a competitive advantage. That’s all

      • cloudy on 11/08/2018 - 13:13
        +1

        And how wrong can share prices can sometimes reflect future outlook. lol. I spelt out exactly what management said in the investor call yesterday. Not like what i wrote in May was anything new, just sometimes no one listens.

    • tighytighty on 03/05/2018 - 08:35
      +2

      Main concern long term for baby bunting is Amazon. Amazon has dominated the baby retail space in the US and its a matter of time when they bring their full service to Aus as well.

      A lot will depend on how BB respond to that threat. If not for Amazon I agree with your sentiments.

      • nickj on 03/05/2018 - 11:03

        Was about to say the same thing. All makes sense, apart from omitting Amazon.

        Also big baby stuff tends to be a one-off (or a few large one-off purchases), such as the car capsule, the cot, the change table, and the travel cot. When you're buying those things, it's very easy as an OzBargainer to think: "Wow this stuff is so expensive, relative to the cost of materials, someone is making an absolute killing here! I know, maybe I should buy some of this company, and then I'll benefit from some of those markups…". But those are largely one-off purchases, and I (as an ozbargainer) found cheaper ways of getting the same thing (rented the capsule for first 6 months, and then got an almost new hand-me-down baby car seat, got a hand-me-down wooden cot, bought a great new change table on eBay for $30, bought a travel cot at Kmart for $100 or so).

        So:
        a) people can avoid paying those costs if they have family or friends with kids, and/or they can reduce them and buy elsewhere as we did.
        b) if they do buy it's a one-off, and I would MUCH rather have a smaller slice of recurring revenue, then a bigger slice of a one-off transaction. Relying on a series of one-off transactions from new customers means you have work hard to always have the right stock, be in the right location, and have the best price, and keep constantly marketing so that you're in their mind.
        c) Amazon will slowly but surely drive prices & profits down.
        d) it's definitely possible to go broke in this space - see the stores you listed + for kids clothes there was Mother Care about 5 years ago, and then Pumpkin Patch about 1.5 years ago. Kmart and Target were eating their lunch, now everyone buys stuff there for $5 to $12 per item of kids clothing.

      • Aceboy884 on 03/05/2018 - 19:53
        +1

        I owned baby bunting shares as well, but the threat of online retail and a slow retail environment in general will lead to heavy discounting.

        A common mistake to make is personal biases from personal experience.

        I’m also a dad, but taking that aside.

        On a financial viewpoint, there’s is not a lot of growth for a traditional retailer in this environment

        Their fixed cost is simply to high to stay competitive

        • cloudy on 05/05/2018 - 10:14

          I looked at BBN at $3 and thought man that’s steep, but at $1.30. You’re paying for no growth, so I only need BBN to tread water to be fine. Now I’m not saying that tread water would be easy, but it’s sure as hell easier than requiring growth to justify the valuations of some other companies.

      • cloudy on 05/05/2018 - 10:10

        BBN did an analysis of amazon, they found of the products sold through amazon, half were cheaper st amazon and half were cheaper at BBN. of the half that was cheaper st amazon the average discount is 20%, the other half where BBN were cheaper BBN had a 30% discount over amazon.

        Amazon is clearly a threat, but sometimes you have to invest through these uncertainties. Without uncertainties you won’t have opportunities.
        I also might add, when shopping for a pram or car seat, I think most would still prefer the old touch and feel, and getting the car fitting down than to buy online and realise the Honda Jazz I’m driving can’t fit that big pram in the boot or the car seat length hits touches the driver seat, etc.

        Amazon has also not succeeded in Canada as much as most people thought given its similarities to USA. So I see no sure thing as amazon will eat all retailers lunch. And lastly, even if they do meaningfully get a big market share, it’ll be years in the making. Have you looked at baby stuff in amazon, it’s pathetic right now.

        • IWoNdEr on 06/05/2018 - 08:27

          I think most people now a day go to store, feel the product, confirm its the one they want then either ask shop to price match the lowest price online or walk out.

          Baby product is a tough market overall and prone to online competitor. To me, being a new dad too, the only thing I won't compromise is car seat (safety) , pram (imaging amount of time lifting and pushing the pram) and formula (thank goodness the little one is breast fed). Everything else is pretty much the lowest price will do.

          A lot of times things are sold on gumtree at fraction of the price. Many of my baby's toy and cloth are gifted from family or friend whose baby has grown up.

          With wage pretty much stagnant , more people will reduce unnecessary spending, baby accessories included.

    • llllllllllllll on 03/05/2018 - 09:39

      I do agree BBN has somewhat a moderate marketshare but their competitors always just around the corner. As mlburnian mentioned, the share price reflects the investor thinking of future value, not today value.

    • SlickMick on 03/05/2018 - 11:33

      That's a bold call. I suspect it was an emotional buy - why wouldn't you test your theory and wait until this discounting is over and see evidence of a recovery??

      From what I'm reading, competitors admit they can't compete with Amazon and are closing down. So has BBN got a plan to survive in an Amazon market, or are they ignorant of what is coming their way??
      Most shareholders seem to be jumping ship. You're going to have a fantastic "told you so" story if you're right. I hope you can afford to be $30,000 poorer in case you're wrong.

      • cloudy on 05/05/2018 - 10:18

        When the recovery occurs the shares would not be $1.30 I suspect. I’m happy to invest before the recovery signs arrive. But I think it’s perfectly fine strategy to wait for the recovery and invest in the up trend.
        I just personally find it very hard, to pay more and more. I find it easier to pay less and less. So catching a falling knife as the saying goes, is easier for me than to invest in a uptrend. Everyone has their own preferences and own demons when investing, I know mine and this is how I go about it.

        Would you be able to link some of the stuff you read, about competitors closing down due to amazon, I’d love to read it.

        $30k is about half the allocation I wish, so yea, hopefully I’m not wrong haha.

        • Blahness on 10/05/2018 - 11:36

          I got in at 1.31 when they released the profit downgrade this week due to heavy discounting from their competitor's closures. Good luck to us!

        • cloudy on 10/05/2018 - 16:49

          @Blahness:

          Honestly I don’t trade on luck. I really believe in research.
          It would seem after posting on Ozbargain all the cheapskates got on board. I am very sad I couldn’t double my position before it got away, last time I’m sharing a tip on a forum haha.

        • Blahness on 11/05/2018 - 11:24

          @cloudy: you made a good call with BBN and congratulate you for standing up against the skeptics but I'm not sure if my now 20% gain was the result of your single posting on ozbargain ^_^

        • cloudy on 11/08/2018 - 13:15

          @Blahness:

          still holding? If you are, i can surely say my word is meaningless in this world. Though what i wrote is EXACTLY what seems to be playing out, and the so called analyst is finally coming to realise.

      • cloudy on 11/08/2018 - 13:16

        Can i say i told you so now? haha, just jking

    • AlienC on 06/05/2018 - 05:33
      +1

      Stuff to do with children, elderly or the sick is always good because we fortunately and unfortunately however way you see it have more.

      But I love tech so it's still nvidia for me. Until Intel does something amazing. AMD might make a comeback one day but not this year maybe next we shall see.

      • cloudy on 10/05/2018 - 16:49
        +1

        That’s right, people don’t compromise on certain stuff, and they make for decent investments.

    • Oofy Doofy on 12/08/2018 - 21:22
      -1

      According to what I saw happen to the BBN price the other day, due to competitors bailing out of the market, you picked pretty well. Don't let it make you believe you are confident with stock picking though, as that usually only spells disaster down the track.

      • cloudy on 12/08/2018 - 21:35

        thanks for the tip.

        As you can see i only put in small amounts in my stocks.

    • johnny1983 on 06/09/2020 - 12:05

      I remember reading your post when looking to get into the stock market, learning how to research shares etc. If you still have these stocks you have done well

      • cloudy on 06/09/2020 - 20:20

        i do ok for myself. I could have done better, but thats always the case i guess.

  • CharityCase on 02/05/2018 - 19:25

    BIN,ELO,APT

    those shares are going to soar soon!

    • Devils Advocate on 03/05/2018 - 09:19
      +3

      This is an obvious pump and dump comment for those unaware.

      • inherentchoice on 04/05/2018 - 09:07

        pump and dump

        Sounds X rated or sounds like toilet humour.

  • twinbag on 02/05/2018 - 21:38
    +4

    I thought minimum parcel of shares you could buy was $500 and brokerage of say $25 on the purchase and again on the sale, means you're 10% down before you even start.

    Plus if the shares fall in value, even a little bit, you'll be left with an unmarketable parcel.

    • macrocephalic on 04/05/2018 - 11:57

      Depends on the broker. Etrade will allow you to buy in any increment that you want - as long as you pay the brokerage fee (which is about $12).

  • Outlaw on 02/05/2018 - 21:50
    +6

    Colin Carpenter says you should buy some industrial chairs and sit on them, but avoid chairs that fold up.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJtNHs4BfYg

  • wtfnodeal on 02/05/2018 - 22:49
    +3

    OZB.AX

  • simonjb on 03/05/2018 - 02:04

    Ige

  • black shaka on 03/05/2018 - 04:07
    +1

    My picks:

    JIN, they are an online lottery mob, highly correlated with jackpots.

    CKF - fast food in Australia and abroad, KFC, tacobell and sizzler.

    AMP - just for kicks, might be oversold….. Might not be, good luck

  • Tigerstu on 03/05/2018 - 08:25
    +1

    What shares will go up in May?

    All shares. But they'll also go down,then some up again… Down again and so on.

  • jacross on 03/05/2018 - 08:27
    +2

    Please just buy index funds. You're asking for individual share advice on OzBargain. Your outlook is not rosy!

    • abb on 03/05/2018 - 17:01

      So, BBOZ?

    • evgpek on 04/05/2018 - 09:51

      Last time I have asked it from my bank. They screwed me. Not much better 😂

  • jhmtaylor on 03/05/2018 - 09:04

    Put it into an Acorns EFT unless you are going to commit to ongoing research on daily basis. Most amateur investors under perform the market.

  • ahly92 on 03/05/2018 - 10:27
    +1

    All good telling you what share to buy…but how will you know when to sell? If you don't know the underlying fundamental and technical analysis of the buy signal then you will either sell too early or too late. If someone is telling you now to buy a stock…it's prob too late anyway and you're buy will basically be a sell for smart money that got in before.

    The best advice I can give is read up on some technical indicators like MACD, RSI, 20/50 day Moving averages Volume indicators and a few more. Then head to investing.com and look at some charts, add the indicators and see if you can understand why the price moved/ why it didn't.

    • SlickMick on 03/05/2018 - 11:44

      I halved the workload by just picking good companies. I haven't done the "when to sell" part yet.

      I'm a little concerned that I was told CBA and WBC have great management!!!! Luckily I don't own any. Dunno whether I missed the boat to jump in when they were cheap a week ago??

  • Roney on 03/05/2018 - 13:17

    Telstra (TLS) shares unlikely to rise in near future but you get great dividends for reinvestment so you get the 'growth' :)

  • Herbse on 03/05/2018 - 15:45
    +1

    I didn't realise stock trading was as easy as asking a question online.

  • icejester on 03/05/2018 - 16:26
    +1

    Bank of Queensland! go for it

  • NaRaSaRang on 03/05/2018 - 16:40

    Invocare

  • renster72 on 03/05/2018 - 16:59

    Check out Kingsgate KCN, Bassari BSR, Spectrum Rare Earths SPX

    Best to look on Hot Copper

  • idonotknowwhy on 03/05/2018 - 17:05

    Buy a $450 shitcoin masternode and earn something like 10-20% returns / year.

    • evgpek on 03/05/2018 - 18:03

      Too risky for me.

      • idonotknowwhy on 04/05/2018 - 13:10

        For $450?
        It's either high risk or just keep it in an 3% p/a interest account.

  • ChatCPT on 03/05/2018 - 17:23

    OP what number do i bet on in roulette?

  • Oofy Doofy on 03/05/2018 - 18:47

    lol.

    Just buy VVLU when you have $5000 ready to go.

  • WorldClassMiser on 03/05/2018 - 18:48
    +1

    Buy shares in Anacott Steel. I have heard that Blue Horseshoe loves it.

    • chumlee on 03/05/2018 - 19:00

      Thanks Bud Fox

      Remember, lunch is for whimps

  • Aceboy884 on 03/05/2018 - 19:56
    +1

    Surprised no one is considering oil stocks in general

    If Iran sanction hits on 13th it is pay day once again.

    So far this year I’ve hit two jack pots

    Awe
    Santos

    Currently sitting on woodside,

    • JMxoxo on 05/05/2018 - 14:24

      needs more BPT

  • FW190 on 03/05/2018 - 22:09

    What Shares Will Go up in May?

    lol if i know for sure I would be putting all my money on that share :)

  • gimme on 03/05/2018 - 23:58
    +1

    Considering a random cat performed better on the stock market than so called experts, I'd say invest in some darts and go from there.

    • evgpek on 04/05/2018 - 09:49
      +1

      Called experts performed worst because they charged fund management fee. Ozbargain is free 😜

      • idonotknowwhy on 04/05/2018 - 13:11
        +1

        Yeah, but OzBargainers will just shill the stocks they own.
        Buy FB!

  • imahapyboy on 04/05/2018 - 10:15
    -1

    AGO

  • DougieBillson on 04/05/2018 - 11:18

    BAS. Consistent growth, big news being released on the 16th. Do your own Research

  • scorpiosony on 04/05/2018 - 11:22
    +1

    Wait Until XIAOMI's IPO in HK

  • Jonski on 04/05/2018 - 11:39

    Macquarie results announced results up on prior. I assume theres would go up.

  • vegemite2008 on 04/05/2018 - 14:05
    -1

    Buy Fastbrick Robotics (FBR) when it dips back to 18 or 18.5 cents.

    Sit on the shares for at least 2 years and enjoy your gains.

    Or, buy MMJ Phytotech (medicinal marijuana) at 36 cents, wait 1-2 years for our medicinal marijuana market to mature and enjoy a massive profit.

    I might be wrong but with only $450 invested, you need to buy a speculative share with an opportunity to grow.

    Having said that, to invest $450 in shares to gain the QF points is silly unless you will keep the shares for a few years.

    I bought FBR and MMJ 2-3 years ago, paper profit on FBR is 400% and MMJ 35%.

    I will not sell until 2020 unless the companies turn into useless companies.

    Do your own research.

    Enjoy the ride and experience.

  • Munki on 04/05/2018 - 20:01

    Buy shares in an umbrella company. The rain season is coming.

  • lostn on 04/05/2018 - 22:53
    +2

    If people knew that we'd all be rich.

    Don't play shares if you don't know what you're doing (and if you need to ask what shares to buy, you don't know what you're doing). It's not for the faint of heart. Of all investments, it's the most volatile and high risk.

    It's not something to buy on a whim or impulse. You need to do your research on the company and speculate its future. Unless you have insider info, nothing is a sure thing. And even experts get it wrong all the time.

    Don't do this for the sake of a bargain.

    $450 will also get you crap all in profits if it does go up. You have to invest decent sums to make anything. Penny stocks are the highest risk, but they also yield the highest reward if they go up by a single cent. If you want to be safe, buy a blue chip stock that pays out dividends and hold on to it. But if you're investing only $450, it's pretty pointless. You can't buy many shares with it.

    You are looking for something that will go up in the short term and sell it quick. That's a high risk play and not one for novices. If you buy shares for long term, even if they go down, they can eventually go back up again, and it's not a company that will just go bust. In the meantime until you sell it, you can still be paid dividends. But again, this is for serious investors only. If you're not willing to do your research, and only want to invest small amounts and not keep it long, do something else with your $450.

    • idonotknowwhy on 05/05/2018 - 09:59

      Of all investments, it's the most volatile and high risk.

      These sort of things are higher risk.

      https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/dnotes/ up 347% in the last 24 hours.

      • lostn on 06/05/2018 - 18:51

        I meant traditional investments. Not crypto. You're right though.

        But crypto is relatively new and obscure unlike the very common types you read about in the newspaper (property, bank interest, term deposits, currency, gold, shares, options, etc).

  • tommohawk on 04/05/2018 - 23:27

    Can't go wrong with VAS. Reliable, dividend paying long term play.

    • idonotknowwhy on 05/05/2018 - 09:57

      OP wants extremeely short-term (shares which will go up in May) lol

      • tommohawk on 05/05/2018 - 11:41

        Hm, he does too, my bad. Well, imo, he's asking for the impossible, since no one can predict accurately what a share price will do in a matter of weeks. I still think that as a novice, he'd be better off sticking that money in an index fund and leaving it there for the long term.

  • JMxoxo on 05/05/2018 - 14:26

    You are better off in spec land with that $ amount and % return.
    So ARE.AX

  • AlienC on 06/05/2018 - 05:42
    +1

    Right now tech is winning so research the market leaders and bank on them guaranteed win.

    My favourite one is Nvidia check it's track record its great.

    I really wanna back xiaomi especially with their recent Iron but tbh the government paper work always annoyed me.

    Same reason I purposely dodged the bitcoin and ripple boom, because I wasn't sure how to do the tax and was busy with some other stuff and commitments.

    Pity though would have had an extra 5-20 grand right now in my wallet to spend on a new work slash side project computer machine and entertainment setup and maybe that mechanical theme park style ride chair I have been meaning to setup with some flying and racing games in vr.

    Samsung Shop in Sydney CBD has one for their Gear VR experience demonstration test and they said it was about 8-9k for the mechanical moving chair setup so not too shabby.

  • thriver on 29/05/2018 - 15:47

    I have gone with Afterpay Touch Group… Was monitoring it for a week and seem to be on the rise. Several articles suggest positive views on the company. Lets see.

  • cloudy on 12/09/2020 - 14:44
    +1

    Since last looking at this thread, i thought i'd throw my hat in ring and put out another couple I've gotten recently. i like to write what i get when i get it, not like some who are keen to tell you how much they made after the fact.

    SRV - Servcorp
    Business: Office leasing and virtual office offering.
    Why i like it: Market cap of circa 230mill (at current price of $2.35) with 100mill of cash in the bank. Earned 60mill free cash last financial year, which included, obviously, the worst pandemic in history.
    Director and MD bought $250,000 of shares himself at $2.59.
    What you're paying for is a business that can generate the entire value of itself into cash in around 2.5-5 years. After that, the company has paid for itself.
    I attended the earnings result conference, and the MD said it'll be impossible for them not to be profitable this year(of course he would say that), they are already trading profitable in July and August and recovering quickly from the pandemic.

    Even on a conservative profit of 10m they would spit out 40m in free cash, at that rate it'll earn itself in 3 years before investment in future opportunities. That's amazingly fast.
    The MD owns around half the company, you can be sure he is focused on the long term of this business, not the pump and dump type you see with some stocks these days. It pays a consistent dividend, which at the current yield is around 8ish% (due to the low share price not because the dividend is historically high or anything).

    Tip 2
    CDP - Carinsdale Westfield

    Business: owns half of Carinsdale Westfield QLD.
    Why i like it - So undervalued compared to its pre-covid value. You can buy this at half the price it was before covid, and QLD is relatively unaffected. Though, lack of any inbound tourist can hurt footfall into a shopping center like CDP. It's not like its a permanent feature that justify halving of its price.
    At the current price, of $3 roughly, it'll cost you $200m to buy the equity and plus the debt of $280m you have the business, which on a normal year spits out around $25+mill of cash each year to equity holders. 25/200 is a pre-covid yield of 12.5%.

    Let say covid has changed the (shopping center) world. Rents are permanently lower and never ever recover back to 2019, rents fall by circa 20%. You'd take Rev down to roughly 45mill and management can only reduce expenses by a smaller faction of expenses in response say 10-15% you'd end up with roughly profit to equity of around 15mill(7.5% yield, at a dead of cycle valuation).
    Add on the fact interest rates have fallen since 2019, which is a slight tailwind, which I haven't baked in.

    Either way you cut it, the share price fall has been way in excess of the drop in rental reduction. Especially given it recently reported 98% rental collection last month (note, its rarely 100% as some renters being late is perfectly normal).

    Both these stocks have the very important characteristic, they are both so lowly priced, it's hard to imagine how it could be worth even less. The risk/reward ratio is undoubtedly if your favour. It's not hard to imagine a situation where both of these could be worth (almost) double it current price, but almost no chance of being worth zero, and very low chance of being worth 50% less than todays price.

    Full disclosure though, I own both, and a decent amount too, 6 figure sum in each, bought at roughly current prices. So i'm talking my own book.

  • cloudy on 17/06/2021 - 22:44
    +1

    Since it's been a while from my last post, I;ve finally found another one I want to write about.

    ASX - YFZ - Youfoodz, no need to explain what they do.

    disclosure first, I've just finished my analysis and I've already bought some and I'm gonna go buy half-1 mill shares in this.

    As I've critiqued others before, I don't like to post, "oh look how smart i am i made all this money" after the fact, i post when I buy so people can judge my analysis not after the fact. (people like posting their winners and conveniently forget their losers.

    So YFZ has circa 130m shares at today price of 42c is around 56M market cap. It has net cash (last reported) of circa 32mill. So enterprise value ex-cash of 24m.
    It does 150mill revenue and around 50mill gross margin. I cant believe im writing about a stock doing 150m rev trading on 24mill EV, most growth business' trade on 3-5 times Revenue, and this is at 1/3 Rev/market cap and 1/6 rev/EV, incredibly cheap. This company has also lots of prior year tax losses as well, so the 24m price tag of this company, that comes with 150mill in revenue, amongst all the assets of the business also comes with my best guess of 60m of tax losses (prospectus shows 60m of -equity). So this company, once it reaches critical mass where the operating leverage of the business starts spiting out cash, it will be tax free for a long time as well.

    Naturally I thought this must be a sinking business, it must be losing revenue YoY and going down the drain. But alas, the main business the B2C (the codes posted on ozbargain) went up 28% last Q PcP.
    And according to the data you guys provided me, it's a given this coming Q will be the best yet. I'm estimating 392,000 orders this quarter, easily surpassing last Q (which was its last best) of 357k, and well above the PcP.
    Very rarely, do you ever get such real time information on a companies revenue, I've looked at thousands of annual reports and stocks in my time and this is the only time I'm so confident about its revenue outlook. (mind you there is also the B2B part which I have no visibility, but i'll get to).

    The other point of evidence this isn't a sinking business is look at product review and trust pilot, its easily the leader in the space of delivered ready to eat packaged food. It has the most verified reviews of any company (I'm always wary of non-verified reviews)

    The last, but probably the most important reason I like this stock (other than its screaming cheap on all metrics) is the fact during the IPO non of the existing shareholders or founder sold shares to the public. Usually an IPO is a chance for them to cash out (look at NUix). None of the cash raised in the IPO went out of the business, everything went back in and not only that, the biggest shareholder RGT capital with 67.3m shares, added an extra 10m shares (at IPO price of $1.50), increasing their shareholding to 77m shares and locking it up in voluntary escrow until 2022. (obviously if the insiders of the company think its worthwhile buying, it says something about what they think its worth.)

    Why is the share price so low?
    I think the price had been lowered due to covid. With more people staying home and cooking more, meals like this became less popular. YF meals are super convenient, if you can't cook well, or have no time, etc, you're more likely to try these services. So I think as the economy picks up and people are forced back into the office a bit more this will push super convenient back into vogue, the other thing about this stock is because the founder and major shareholder owns so much, there isnt much shareholder communications ramping this up.
    Lastly, as lots of people have made money in the last financial year, people are keen to offset their capital gains with any losers. This is causing the sell at any price situation I think is happening right now with YF and giving a really attractive entry point into this stock.
    I sense that after FY end, in 2 weeks, there wont be many sellers and buying this stock will be difficult.

    As alawys DYOR, but like CDP and SRV, I'm investing my usual 6 figures in.

    • madreece on 14/07/2021 - 17:41
      +2

      You sir, are a king!

      • cloudy on 14/07/2021 - 21:30

        Thanks, I knew YFZ was worth much more than 42c when I recommended it but I did not know it would get a TO offer. I was either gonna double my money through market realisation of the facts of the company, or someone else like HF seeing the same opportunity and snapping it up.

        I would rather a slow gain instead of a 3 weeks double up, now I have to stress about how I can avoid paying all sorts of taxes and reduction in childcare levies which I was expecting.

        • idonotknowwhy on 15/07/2021 - 12:50

          dm me when you post your next dd ;)

  • Duckie2hh on 18/06/2021 - 09:20

    Hang on. Let me get my tuning forks and feel the wind for you…

  • rektrading on 18/06/2021 - 13:23

    ETH mcap is 1t at the end of this year. Today's price of 2340 is cheap.

  • cloudy on 18/08/2021 - 02:29
    +2

    I am gonna stick my head out on this one and say it's not the best investment you'll ever see, but at the current price it can't be that bad. After all the most important thing is return of capital not return on capital.

    ASX:MIL, current price 55c, MC of 25m.

    So MIL is a cleaning and securities business. Pretty basic stuff, they basically hire a large amount of people (circa 5k) that clean shopping centers and offices and securities guards, aka covid marshals these days.

    There's two ways i look at the current share price that scratches my head and ask "why is this so low?"
    One way is, pre-covid (PC) this was high 49-55c (depending if you look at early or late Feb as Pre-covid. Today, it is 55c.
    But PC this was saddled with around 25m of debt, today it is without any net debt (7m cash in bank with 7m in borrowings). In simple terms, this has dropped from - in round figures - a 50m company to 25m company.
    But is MIL half as bad as PC?
    Well no, in fact, it seems better. Revenue hasn't changed much, but they have been focusing on more profitable contracts and dropping the marginal contracts. MIL operates in a tight margin business, most of it's revenue goes straight to staffing costs. Small errors in tendering for work can lead to zero margin business. So being more diligent in factoring some fat into the bid is essential to business and it's been seen in some lost of contracts. But they've managed to have reductions in rev but actually increase gross margins. Gross margins is what pays the overheads and leads to EBITDA and ultimate money in shareholders pockets.
    So GM has gone from 31m in 2020 to 40m 2021, a healthy 30% increase. EBITDA has gone from 0 to 4m to 11m in 2019, 2020, 2021 respectively.

    This is not a business that's half as good as Feb 2020.

    Another way to look at this is from a valuations point of view.
    Market cap of 25m with 11m EBITDA is slightly over 2x, that is low, so low it's hard pressed to find any business trading that low. Generally speaking high growths gets valued at 40x EBITDA, no growth maybe 5-10x. 2x is the market saying this business is going bust soon. But this isn't the case, if anything, covid has shown the need for more cleaning services not less. When I go to shopping centers (before lockdown), it's clear there are more cleaners cleaning areas not usually done PC. Lift buttons, escalator hand rails, etc. Food courts have more cleaners, at times when density limits are in place more security is used to limit food court numbers and more cleaners are used to efficiently ensure lines waiting for a seat aren't held up by dirty tables.

    MIL has reported demand for security is high as covid testing sites employee traffic controllers and security, and every time there is a covid case testing sites are overwhelmed and ad hoc demand for security is more profitable and higher margin.

    IMHO, covid cleaning and testing sites are not going away any time soon, and will continue to be a source of high margin work for MIL.

    I forgot to mention also, the cash generation has been great lately, it has paid off roughly 30mill of debt in the last 18 months, it last generated 42m (in operating cash flow, 17ish helped by job keeper) in 2021. If it can generate half that (42-17 = 25/2 = 12ish mill) going forward, it basically spits out the whole worth of the company in cash in 2 years. Imagine paying 25mill for this company now and in 2 years time it has 25mill sitting in the bank. That is some sort of return.

    So thats the bull case, what about the bear case.
    Covid has forced lots of shopping centers and offices to close, events are not running. All this means less cleaning and security. I think this is temporary.

    The company is so small, no one looks at it, which is true. No fund manager can be bother with a company this small, that they can't get a position in because buying a million bucks in this takes 3 months and moves the share price too much along the way. But I personally rather go to a house auction where I'm the only bidder rather than a 4 way contest with a crowd of 50.

    Lots of inside ownership with related party expenses, I don't like it, but there is always a reason why shit companies like this has low valuations, comes with the territory sometimes.

    I'm not buying a lot of this, maybe 30k-50k, its a crap company after all, but at these valuations, its hard to imagine it being worth less or worthless.

    • KingZlatan on 04/10/2021 - 18:36

      Great insight/analysis, stocks of company's of this size can be quite volatile though

      • cloudy on 04/10/2021 - 19:39

        Yea absolutely, they are volatile because there is often little consensus of value, when the opinions vary the price can sway to each sides views. So having a strong investment case is necessary.

        I should add, given that VIC and NSW have both declared that vaccine is now a mandate for entry into many places there will be extra pressure for security. Obviously if your a small cafe a waiter or someone could suffice.

        But if you are a decent size shop on centre or event you’ll need to ensure you need to compile and that means extra guards nightclub style checking IDs.

        That is more work for MIL that I hadn’t factored in, and given vic and nsw security makes up 70% of last years security business, those geographies will be an opportunity I can only imagine provides a decent tailwind.

        I can’t quantify, but Id hazard a guess it’ll be material, and market hasn’t seem to factor in yet too.

        • KingZlatan on 04/10/2021 - 20:10

          Agreed - this one has a lot of room for growth (good value but with the risk/volatility priced in). Today they announced a new and extended contracts with Westfield shopping centres in VIC worth $30m. Tricky bit would be how long to hold - not a great company like you said. Definitely a short-medium term stock.

          • cloudy on 04/10/2021 - 21:12

            @KingZlatan: Yep, most of my problems are when to sell. Not when to buy, buying is usually the easy bit.

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