Going to the US 2 weeks after the US election (Nov 8) and wanted to know people's opinions on buying USD for the trip before or after the election. If you could explain your preference, that would be great. Brexit caused 1AUD to go from ~0.50 to 0.60 pence so I'm wondering if the US election will have an effect (better or worse) on the AUD.
Buying USD before or after US Election
Comments
I agree with this, but the market is clearly expecting a Clinton win, so if Trump did win you will see USD falls.
With this in mind, there is almost no penalty to wait and see, and there could be a modest reward if Trump gets up.
Hopefully, there will still be an America left to visit if he does win!The market also expected Brexit to fail, the odds were 6.0 just before the vote in the UK. A healthy profit for some.
We can get 6.0 on Trump now.
Regardless of who wins there will be a massive flight to the USD because of whats occurring in Europe.
As always behind the curtain is where the action takes place not in the MSM. Especially CNN (The Clinton news network)
Of course the whole voting system is rigged in favour of Clinton, the evidence is overwhelming.
Thankfully wikileaks are exposing her corrupt ways, truth always comes back to bite you eventually.
http://www.donaldjtrumppolls.com/
Trump's sitting at 63.17% hereand here
http://viralliberty.com/1000000-0/ and it continues, many more.
Perhaps the wikileaks emails that show clear rigging of the polls in the MSM may change the game.
"WikiLeaks also shows how John Podesta rigged the polls by oversampling Democrats, a voter suppression technique"
Someone got caught with their hand in the cookie jar, naughty HC.
I'd say "Extremely unlikely" is a rather odd statement!
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/blog/
Marty (Linked above) is extremely accurate with currency movement.
Currently there is a large movement of funds from various countries. People 'in the know' tend to move large sums of money before the event.
Due to the impending Euro decline the flight to USD will rise regardless of who wins the election.
Whilst there is much focus on the US election it's worth noting the importance of the upcoming French and German elections.
If Hillary wins, she will sell USA to the large companies wanting to profit.
If Trump wins, he will sell USA to highest bidder for his own profit.Whoever says Hillary is worse than Trump is a liar… they're equally not fit for the role.
Jeb Bush is also not fit for the role, but he was knocked out early.
But as Fox News etc etc does over there "blame Obama".
He's been wrongfully blamed for so many things that its now a meme or an inside-joke gone viral.They should've had Bernie vs Cruz… at least those guys seem to have some sort of plan for The States without resorting to gameshow shenanigans.
At the end of the day… it won't matter who wins.
The big companies will react regardless, so USA's economy will follow the trend that it has before it.
This is nothing like the Brexit referendum.Happy forthcomng US $20,000,000,000,000 debt everybody. Looks like about Jan 2017 when it will tick over.
Correct Frugal, Obamacare is going bust. The 401K's will be dismantled.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/why-2017…
Sounds like a great safe haven to put your cash! No health care, unstable government and a busted property bubble thrown in…
I hope you aren't trying to make money on Forex
How much money are you exchanging, how long are you going for and what method will you use to exchange the currency?
Travelling almost anywhere these days with the "perceived as risky" AUD is a real pain whenever anything "big" happens. From Australia's perspective, when the USD goes up, everyone else does as well. Even if the USD goes down, I wouldn't be surprised if everyone wins except us or at least more than us.
Assuming the USD can't go up as fast or extreme as the GBP went down in a matter weeks then I'm willing to take the chance with my upcoming trip immediately following the election. I'm so cheap that even an extreme 25% loss in the AUD won't be dramatic for a non-OzBargainer. But for me it would really, really, really suck.
Optimistically, if it could plummet to it's lowest this year (in January, 68 cents) it's only a 12% loss.
73 cents…
It's extremely unlikely that Trump will win. If he did win, the USD will fall. If Clinton wins, I estimate that the USD will marginally increase.
This would be a factor if you are wanting to lock in million dollar contacts. But for a $5,000 spend a 5c currency variation equates to $250.
Your energy is therefore better spent on not getting ripped off with currency conversions.