Best Time to Book and Travel - New Report

• 

  bonezAU on 04/02/2015 - 14:55

  I booked an upcoming holiday about 19 weeks ago to Indonesia.

  First I booked with Jetstar, who then flipped their schedule and made it a complete PITA, so they refunded.
  Decided to spend extra and book with Garuda, because they are a full service airline and their schedules are like clockwork out of Perth, right, right??

  Guess what, they did the same thing to us as Jetstar.
  Ended up being $700 out of pocket (for 4 people) due to extra accommodation and schedule changes for domestic flights to another city once we arrived in Bali.

  I guess all airlines are subject to schedule changes, but I wish they wouldn't do it so often.

• 

  travelwiz on 04/02/2015 - 17:11

  if you thinking of booking anywhere in peak season, the best time for best fare is today or the day the flights are loaded.

  eg. today most airlines have loaded up to 23 January 2016, so if thinking of going in Xmas school holidays anywhere, today or within next week will be cheapest.

  Below is a HUGE generalisation.

  >
  Thailand — 20 weeks
  USA — 19 weeks
  Indonesia —19 weeks
  UK — 12 weeks
  New Zealand — 6 weeks
  >

  The biggest factors in airlines having airfares sale, has nothing to do with fuel prices or even exchange rates, but rather consumer confidence.

  Airlines are always full in peak season, so you won't see big sales then.

  The guide above, refers to averages of when sales occur in low season.

  We get it all the time, along the lines …

  "my mate booked to go to USA at Xmas few years ago at last minute for $999 return" (yes at start of GFC, when supply went thru the roof due to new airlines flying(Virgin & Delta), when demand went thru the floor) not any other time since.

  Looking at USA, 19 weeks before Xmas Day is 14 August.

  By middle of August each year, we virtually have nothing left of our allocations of cheap seats to LAX over school holidays. Occasionally we might have a few tickets, from people who can no longer go, for which we do a name change & sell to someone else.

  Suggest if you're silly enough to wait til August to book Xmas school holiday flights to USA, you either pay a lot more or have to settle for not ideal dates or times of travel (ie. maybe break of journey en route - who wants to spend day or 2 in good ol Auckland except for Kiwis)

  In last week or so, people who go to North America every year in school holidays to ski, have returned & booked & paid, so they get the dates they want at the price they want & they pay in full for everything so locked into exchange rate & no nasty surprises if AUD$ falls.

  • 

    donga100 on 08/02/2015 - 17:38

    Whilst the 19 weeks quote is a huge generalisation, so is this:

    if you thinking of booking anywhere in peak season, the best time for best fare is today or the day the flights are loaded.

    eg. today most airlines have loaded up to 23 January 2016, so if thinking of going in Xmas school holidays anywhere, today or within next week will be cheapest.

    The prices are constantly being adjusted up and down based on projected future sales and complex historical sales data. For example, if Qantas had only sold half of their seats on the December BNE-LAX flights by the end of November they would almost certainly offer them for lower than the $1700 fares recently advertised. Of course, it is the job of their revenue team to ensure this doesn't happen by monitoring sales/prices throughout the year.

    Airlines don't necessarily release the lowest fares automatically when they start selling flights for each date either. For example, look at the fares for BNE-LAX departures on the 24th and 26th December using either Qantas or Virgin Australia. These dates both fall in the same fare "season" but have different prices because the lowest fares were never released for the 26th due to it being an historically more popular day to fly on that route. However, it's still possible that the lowest fares could appear on these dates if sales are lower than expected sometime into the future.

    • 

      travelwiz on 09/02/2015 - 09:45

      that's an over simplification.

      eg. Qantas nonstop from Brisbane are fare more popular via Sydney or even via Melbourne.

      As Sydney has 2 x SYD/LAX most days + SYD/DFW they often have seats, when no cheaper ones ex BNE.

      Catch is SYD, being head office for many companies, generally has higher incomes than both BNE & MEL, so fares ex SYD are generally higher.

      If Qantas released cheap seats in NOV for mid-late DEC departures, many people who go every year would just wait to book, which would completely stuff up their forward bookings.

      We literally try & buy up every cheap seat we can(it costs us but we know we can sell them).

      If Qantas wanted to clear some seats, in peak season, they would 1stly offer them on a wholesale basis, so the price never disclosed or only disclosed on condition that can't buy airfare alone, must buy with accom, car hire etc.

      They may then trickle feed few seats at a time.

      Unfortunately many people believe when they see an advertised special, that the whole aircraft is on sale at that price, when sometimes very few seats.

      A study was done of a domestic airline sale by one airline & it was found that as few as 2 seats were on sale & many flights had no seats on sale.

      A travel agent with a computer reservation system, can tell you this very quickly, but with an online search engine, it can be very time consuming & very frustrating trying to find these cheap seats.

      If any Qantas seats to LAX from BNE, SYD or MEL for departure mid to late DEC come up under $1699 retail, we would buy as many as we could or all. This doesn't mean we would pay for them in full, but we do have to put down a non-refundable deposit & we can still change either outbound or inbound date, not both. We have never lost deposit, but we have come close a few times.
      (as long as no WW3, SARS outbreak or ISIS going crazy around the world)

      We are sometime approached by airline saying such, but not at last minute. That would be very poor yield control.

      Seasons are kind of meaningless. Eg. up until a few years ago 25DEC was always a cheap day to fly internationally ex OZ, or 23, 24 or 31DEC ex LAX back to OZ, as you would miss 24, 25DEC or NYE/1JAN resp.

      But Qantas has cut flights to LAX 25DEC (no BNE/LAX & only 1 SYD/LAX instead of 2).

      So we must disagree with you strongly.

      If Qantas has any fares to LAX ex BNE, SYD or MEL for sale in NOV or even OCT under $1699 return for departure mid-late DEC, coming home in January, then I'd suggest that everyone sell their Qantas shares ASAP, as they would then be in deep financial trouble.

      • 

        donga100 on 09/02/2015 - 17:11

        If Qantas has any fares to LAX ex BNE, SYD or MEL for sale in NOV or even OCT under $1699 return for departure mid-late DEC, coming home in January, then I'd suggest that everyone sell their Qantas shares ASAP, as they would then be in deep financial trouble.

        You were selling them yourself in November last year for $1599…
        http://forums.ski.com.au/xf/threads/clearance-of-seats-to-us…

        The Qantas share price has increased by around 50% since then…
        http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/company.do#!/QAN

• 

  Almost Banned on 04/02/2015 - 17:36

  +2

  IMHO the 'best' time to buy airline tickets is when they hit the level you are prepared to pay.
  Simply work out where you want to go, and how much you think is reasonable.
  Then set an alert and as soon as tickets come up under that price - buy them.
  Everything else is pure guesswork and chance.

  • 

    travelwiz on 04/02/2015 - 18:50

    but not for peak season.

    Imagine if you set an alert for fares to LAX at Xmas(peak season from mid December onwards) at $1690 return.

    They are almost certainly never ever going to go under that, with possible exception of taking up to 48 hours each way & flying via China. So will get no alerts.

• 

  anth0888 on 05/02/2015 - 11:17

  I have a travel planning blog / portal with some useful resources if anyone fancies. It's still developing but has alot of good planning links and etc. http://www.lifettlens.com