Hi ozbargainers
Looks like the medibank private shares I applied for is going to make me a fortune tomorrow.
Did you apply? If yes,What are you going to do with them? Sell them for quick profit, hold them for some time or buy more?
And why?
Medibank Private Shares - Should I Sell Them?
[Deactivated] on 24/11/2014 - 09:04
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No. I wish I could but most analysts predict a $2.15-2.30 opening.
Looks like the medibank private shares I applied for is going to make me a fortune tomorrow.
You are likely going to be disappointed, there will be a massive scale back. The issue was over subscribed 4 or 5 times.
Price wise this article is suggesting a price of $2.22 from an issue price of $2.00.
(http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/in-the-black/huge-publi…)If the shares are sold within 12 months of purchase, there is no discount on capital gains tax.
I think you'll see a price hike of 10-20 percent immediately after the ASX listing, then it will flatten..
I read in today's Financial review "according to market specialists $2 per share is already at the higher end of pricing scale".Yes, that's with all IPO's that have huge hype, they spike up pretty crazily in the first hour or so, then either drop below IPO price or flatten.
But I was really really worried about the announced $1.5-$2 range, that meant they were comfortable making adjustments by a whole 25%, a big warning for me to watch rather than just jump in.
Now that they've announced a price of $2.15 for institutional and $2 retail investors, if I were to place a bet, the price difference is going to cause huge shorting almost immediately after normal trading.
The money is in selling pretty quickly.
Retail investors received 60% of allocated shares, this will create buying pressure.
Yes, but are we talking about the same span of time? Because then we're not talking about the same thing.
Looks like the medibank private shares I applied for is going to make me a fortune tomorrow.
Just to put it in perspective: if it opens at 2.20, considering the scale back you may get 1000 shares (paid $2000) you will make $200…hardly a fortune. And on that "fortune" you have to pay full capital gain tax unless you keep the shares for 1 year (after which capital gain tax is reduced to 50%)
After the transaction fees and lost interest. I doubt even selling at $2.20 would result in a reasonable profit.
The more shares you applied for, the more interest you lost for the month.
Minimum shareholding is $2000. Selling at $2.20 and paying $15 brokerage (Bell Direct) would gain $185 profit. That's ~9% profit in less than a month, and would be greater for people with larger shareholdings.
I receive considerably less from my online savings account.
I hope you do make your fortune but until you get that bit of paper that says you own xxx number of shares you can't sell anything. If it goes like many big public offerings, the price will rally on day 1 & 2, the big institutions who have access to their share certificates immediately electronically will sell at a big profit, the price starts to drop over the coming days. You finally get your allocation letter, the price has dropped below your allocated price and your fortune gone :-( This has happened to me a few times, I no longer get caught up in this hype and now buy after the offering has opened when the price bottoms out and get a much better price.
It's 9.45 and the market hasn't opened.
Indicative price (Westpac Broking) is $2.40
Should you sell this morning, my answer is YES. At what price, well anything over $2.20 is a 10% profit for medibank $2.00 investors & $2.40 sounds like a great deal!
Health Insurance is going to get a lot more expensive, more people will drop it, the share price will drop - I see it trading at between $1.50-$1.80 this time next year IMO
current bid @ 3.01
current offer @ 1.950 volume so far
Etrade showing…
Bid 3.010
Offer 1.800
Volume 0Just some info on scale backs.
General Public Offer
Applicants who pre-registeredApplied for
$2,000 to $2,300
Receive
The full amount you have applied for$2,301 to $7,000
$2,300 + 86.25% of your Application within this band$7,001 to $14,000
$6,353.75 + 23.00% of your Application within this bandOver $14,000
$7,963.75 + 5.75% of your Application within this bandPolicy holders that pre registered do a bit better, those who didn't pre register do a bit worse
Yep, the full allocation details can be found in the Minister for Finance link erwinsie provided.
I posted it here so all the Girly Men wouldn't have to read it in the Finance Minister's Arnie tones.
Has anyone received confirmation by postal mail of their Medibank shares yet??!
Errr, final pricing and basis of allocations is announced today, and commencement of trading on ASX @ 12:00pm.
They will be posted on 04 December.
You can check to see what was allocated to you by going here (https://www.medibankprivateshareoffer.com.au/residency/)
You will need your ARM number. (10 digit allocation number)
$2.22
share prices already lost 9 cents from its peak of $2.23 and now trading at $2.14.
So if you didn't sell it yesterday then you've already lost 30% of your FORTUNE.
MPL hit $2.38 yesterday… Hohohoho.. Almost 20% profit in 2 months
Economy outlook had been changing over past few weeks/months.
People pulled money out of mining and invested in other avenues.
MPL seems to have attracted some of those ex-mining investors.
Doing business in stock market is always buying and selling at the right time (when you feel it's right time to buy or sell).
The share price will concinue to drop to fair value, alas many couldnt not trade on listing due to electronic problems with comushare and as such they will have to sue if they feel they suffered loss.
As i said, sell, sell sell. The price to share value was so out of wack it will have to drop to $1.80 to even approach fair value, so dont hold out, waiting for a higher price.
Also now its sold, the real shareholders (thoes that pay the policys) now have a case for the return of value from the overfunded policys pools, so expect the price to suffer when the first lawyer to lodge a case and starts hunting for people to join a masse class action.
MPL hit $2.38 yesterday… Hohohoho
After going up to $2.38 last week, you still maintain your original prediction, it should drop to fair value $1.80? And your sell,sell,sell recommendation?
I bought as part of the shareholder offer.
Sold on Day 2 morning at 2.22.
Bought back at 2.15.Wondering what to do again at 2.38 (23cents!!).
How greedy does one want to be?Shares, they go up and come down.
Much like waves in surfing, we need to ride them.
Read the financials and all press releases by the company then set your target orders.We will always have naysayers and doomsday predictions.
It's not about proving another right or wrong.
Just do what you think is best for yourself.
Why do you think they are going to make you a fortune - can you foresee the opening market share price ?