Are We in a Recession?

malkakas on 09/10/2014 - 10:56
Last edited 09/10/2014 - 10:57

Hi folks,

I just wanted to start a discussion about the state of Australian economy.
I work in IT industry.
I am starting this thread because for about a year ago our company had about 80-90 employees, now we have only about 50-60 people. That is 20~30% reduction in staff numbers. Many people were made redundant due to lack of projects.

Few months back I thought to move on to a different job, but now even the thought of finding a new job is scary.
In the meantime client is trying to reduce their cost by reducing the budget from our contract and there was a talk going on about off-shoring some of the services we provide to the client.

Also there were some news reports about mining and manufacturing sectors losing tens of thousands of jobs. Housing price growth stalled in September, the Aussie dollar came down to below 90 US cents without much influence from RBA.

So if we put all these tell tale signs together, doesn't it indicate that Australia is in a Recession?

feel free to share your thoughts about this topic.

cheers

Poll Options

  • 11
    In a Recession.
  • 127
    Heading Towards Recession.
  • 81
    Not in a Recession.
  • 6
    Economy is Booming.
Financial

Comments

    • ItsMeAgro on 11/10/2014 - 16:34
      +2

      The billionaires are doing just fine.

  • figarow on 11/10/2014 - 20:48

    Are We in a Recession?

    No the whole world is moving toward depression fasten your seatbelt.

  • love2buy on 11/10/2014 - 21:27

    Its not all bad if manufacturing dissappears in aus. Manufacturing brings with it nasties like pollution. In the end the wealth eventually trickle back into australia as people migrate and settle here for that very reason.

  • cannedhams on 11/10/2014 - 23:47
    +1

    I think that a recession is likely. Couple of reasons:-

    1) Likely popping of the Chinese asset bubble. When the Japanese asset bubble popped in the 90s, the Japanese deleveraged assets as fast as they could muster to try and bail themselves out at home. I think we will see a repeat of that.

    2) Very ordinary productivity growth. This has been the case for a long time now. It seems as though most of the Western countries are more or less ex-growth, the big productivity gains that came with IT, with female participation in the workplace, etc, have more or less tapered off. Without underlying growth, it will be difficult to turn things around if they do get on the slide.

    3) Migration policy. No doubt migration has kept the economy growing by dint of numbers if nothing else. However, if unemployment starts to rise, there will be pressure on government to ease numbers. Migration is the white horse of the Australian economy, it helps with Australia's current account deficit, its skills shortages and it supplies growth. But there are limits to how long it can go on.

    4) The slide in commodities. China has put big money into its African investments, it is looking to get resources from places other than Australia. When you look at the amount of coal China consumes Australia is only a tiny part of that. We are a pimple on an elephants arse. Things dont have to turn down much for Australia to be affected.

    The only contrary trend is the steady demand for food across Asia. There are not many countries left with a substantial food surplus but Australia is one of them.

    • Baghern on 12/10/2014 - 12:04
      +1

      Point 1 won't happen, the best example of that is Russia. Sydney/Australia is the equivalent of London/England, a hidey hole. People want to get out of China/Russia, Japan was worth saving.

      • cannedhams on 13/10/2014 - 00:07

        Yes, but they may not be able to get out of China. There's some truth in what you say, but ultimately if people in China have to come up with cash quickly they will do exactly what the Japanese did.

  • [Deactivated] on 12/10/2014 - 00:56

    We are always heading towards a recession.

  • [Deactivated] on 12/10/2014 - 08:55
    +1

    Its just an excuse for the employers not to give payrise so they can give their fat bonuses to themselves.
    What a load of BS to be in a recession, people still buying iphone 6 plus, changing their cars every 2 years, go on holiday every year, yea rite.

    As long as the government keep importing chinese with their million dollars to buy property cash on hand we should be fine. Since this will drive the real estate business on the way to the top of bubbles.

  • ibfragalot on 12/10/2014 - 10:09

    IT worker in retail here. Redundancies and outsourcing everywhere. Quality of work by the foreigners is shocking though, barely passable, often useless. I moved from a tech role to a mgmt/ITservice space myself, got my ITIL, working upwards. Can't outsource the vendor management… I hope:)

  • ahly92 on 12/10/2014 - 15:50

    Are We in a Recession?

    YES…and we're all about to perish :)

    • MarkB4 on 12/10/2014 - 16:22

      If you listen to the LNP.

  • UncommonName on 12/10/2014 - 20:39

    Its about time someone asked the question here. Australia's biggest mining export destination is Asia, especially china. In recent years the growth of Chinese economy has stabilised (growth rate is not increasing any more), which is affecting Aus exports.

  • NickosFoivos on 13/10/2014 - 00:08
    +1

    Things look bad and most important is the unemployment.

    • Unemployment is getting bigger and bigger. The government does nothing to face it.
    • Gov brings more immigrants which means less jobs for the locals
    • Poor gov services

    and of course

    • (profanity) CRAZY expensive life without a reason! Food, bills, going out…everything is expensive while there is no money flowing as it should.

    Do not get me wrong, I am an Aussie myself but if you cannot see the ''wave'', you must be blind.

  • Baysew on 13/10/2014 - 02:00

    One year ago, the Australian people entrusted the Coalition with the job of building a
    stronger Australia.
    Since then we have sought to keep your trust by delivering on our commitments to you
    and by making decisions that are in the best long-term interests of Australia.
    Our focus has been on building a strong, prosperous economy and a safe, secure
    Australia.
    We’re making progress:
    The Carbon Tax is gone;
    The boats are stopping;
    Our record $50 billion roads and infrastructure programme is underway;
    The Mining Tax has been abolished;
    We’ve given environmental approvals to major new projects worth over $800 billion;
    We’re boosting exports and jobs with Free Trade Agreements with two of our major trading partners;
    We’re reducing Government debt and getting the Budget back under control;
    And importantly, 109,000 new jobs have been created since the end of last year.
    As a nation, we’ve also faced serious challenges in the past year because of the increasingly
    uncertain world in which we live.
    Uncertainty in Syria, Iraq and Ukraine and the rise of violent extremism has tested Australia,
    as it has other nations.
    In an increasingly uncertain world, the Coalition Government is determined to keep our nation safe and secure and is implementing a detailed set of measures to achieve this.
    Over the next two years, the Government will continue its work building a stronger economy and a safe, secure Australia.
    This will help families get ahead, support our seniors, create jobs, provide world-class health and education, encourage small business, and build the roads of the 21st century.

    Tony Abbott

  • frewer on 13/10/2014 - 03:18

    The Shemitah indeed repeat itself.

    http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/08/markets/stock-market-loss/
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-rbn…

    Mind you there is a bubble here too …

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