What does history tell us about the direction of the ozzie after an election.
And anyone game to predict where it will go ?
Could be useful info for OzB'ers buying stuff from OS online or even travellers parking money.
AUD after election - up or down ?
MITM on 05/09/2013 - 18:45
Comments
Coalition win would be factored into the exchange rate already.
95% chance of happening.
I heard the Australian government is cutting interest rates to drive the dollar down. Fact is the high dollar has already done untold damage to our economy. It's been too expensive to manufacture or grow crops here. I think the government is doing everything it can to get our dollar down. That's what they did in the US. Drove their currency down to drive up exports.
Is this what your uncle who works for Nintendo told you?
The Australian Government does not control interest rates. At all. The pretend like it was all them being good/bad when it changes, but the influences are mostly external and the target rate is set by the RBA based on these influences, and is independent.
"cutting interest rates" is done by the Reserve Bank, not the Aus govt.
it's sad the general public as a whole is ignorant and easily misled on economic matters. all the govt debt scaremongering by the liberals used as a political sledgehammer to knock labor out of government to which a tight fiscal stance has been adopted by both sides of the govt. so now we have a contradictory macroeconomic environment where the expansionary stance of the central bank is negated by a tightening fiscal policy. sit tight on your money folks, rough times are coming
Exactly…
However, I do see lowering interest rates in response to tight fiscal policy proposed by both major parties… This will lead to a reduction in the carry trade and the AUD will FALL!
I also expect some pullback in the stockmarket due to unhedged foreign investors exiting the currency.
and don't forget syria
As of midnight 5/9/13 (election eve) AUD dollar was 9118USD.
It is now 9378, never dipping below 9118.So answer to the question - Up, up and away.
that's got more to do with what's happening in the US and syria than domestically though
Agreed - but it didn't go down or stay neutral.
Now at 95 - interesting to where from here?
In the long term when the US Fed decides to stop printing money via bond purchases/giving free money to rich people. Then the AUD will fall again. Unless the RBA of course decides to lower rates before the fed decides to unwind.
One more month of printing money.
Probably should put in that order from B&H soon before AUD/USD drops…
Still around 94
Anyone that makes a prediction is making a guess, no one knows, no one will ever be able to guess any particular days up or down of currency unless you are some governor of a reserve bank lol.